611 Erie St · Fulton, NY 13069

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1902 5,832 sqft lot Est $139k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Purchasers must be first-time homebuyers and are subject to income limits (80% AMI and below) and owner-occupancy requirements pursuant to New York State Homes & Community Renewal’s Legacy City ACCESS Program. Purchasers must complete income qualification and homebuyer education training with a HUD-certified homeownership counselor prior to purchase. Property being sold on first-come-first-serve basis with offers to be considered in the order they are received (to be considered, package must include a copy of Purchaser's preapproval and purchase offer contract containing language in Section 26 indicating Purchaser represents their household income is within 80% AMI and below). P

Key facts

• Sizable yard
• Remodeled bathroom
• Renovated kitchen

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• SIZABLE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $527 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 6.7% in Fulton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#907 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Fulton City School District (town): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #554 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Granby Elementary School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,846 of 2,108 statewide, top 91%, 471 students, 70% FRL); Fulton Junior High School (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #611 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 500 students, 62% FRL); G Ray Bodley High School (math 83% / reading 86%, grade A, #379 of 1,100 statewide, top 36%, 976 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $108,350 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.54%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
611 Erie St	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,320 (0%)	1mo	$110,000	$83	97
609 Seneca St	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,381 (+5%)	2mo	$118,450	$86	88
10 N 8th St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-0%)	7mo	$150,000	$114	83
117 S 7th St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,347 (+2%)	2mo	$50,000	$37	79
614 Utica St	0.26mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,374 (+4%)	3mo	$25,000	$18	73
514 Academy St	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,209 (-8%)	4mo	$136,500	$113	60
524 Rochester St	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,460 (+11%)	1mo	$80,000	$55	58
407 State St	0.65mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,380 (+4%)	2mo	$125,000	$91	54
1019 Emery St	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,419 (+8%)	7mo	$175,530	$124	53
868 Oneida St	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,134 (-14%)	6mo	$149,000	$131	53
420 N 6th St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+12%)	1mo	$155,000	$105	52
871 Oneida St	0.35mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,512 (+14%)	5mo	$172,000	$114	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $70,239
• Equity at exit: $74,407

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.82×
• Total profit: $179,158
• Equity at exit: $139,722

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13069

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,502 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $436/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $527

Break-even live

Break-even rent $834

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $589	-5% $558	+0% $527	+5% $496	+10% $465
Rent	-10% $409	-5% $468	+0% $527	+5% $587	+10% $646
Rate	-1.0pp $583	-0.5pp $555	base $527	+0.5pp $499	+1.0pp $470

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
312 Utica St Fulton, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,300	$1.23	15d	1	0.36mi
303 S 5th St Fulton, NY	4.0	1.5	1800	$1,850	$1.03	15d	1	0.56mi
262 W 4th St S Unit 1 Fulton, NY	3.0	1.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	45d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-14
   listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $436 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,147 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$712/yr (+$59/mo · 163.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,018
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$436
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,441
• − Management: −$1,441
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $4,788
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,149
• After-tax cash flow: $5,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton City School District
• NCES district ID: 3611700
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,337
• Composite: 30.49/100
• National rank: #6220
• State rank: #554 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fulton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #17723

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fulton, NY
• Population (ZIP): 23,176

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Current HPI: 304.443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $110,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

-13.0%/yr

Latest (2021): $436 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.