428 Robney Dr · Sumter, SC 29150

$59,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,066 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 276 Days on market

Built 1950 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedroom and 1 bathroom rehab project. Storage building with concrete floor. Sold as-is. Market rent $995.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 276 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family house; One story
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Paved road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Other heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.2% vs local median 3.3% in Sumter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#235 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumter 01 (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #64 of 80 in SC (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crosswell Drive Elementary (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #587 of 597 statewide, top 99%, 460 students, 100% FRL); Chestnut Oaks Middle (math 3% / reading 17%, grade F, #221 of 229 statewide, top 97%, 396 students, 100% FRL); Sumter High School (math 22% / reading 67%, grade F, #166 of 196 statewide, top 87%, 2,289 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 384 active listings in the ZIP; 386 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 276 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 276 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.24%
• DSCR: 3.37
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $128,986
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Cecil Rd	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,047 (-2%)	10mo	$127,000	$121	81
735 E Charlotte Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,076 (+1%)	2mo	$149,900	$139	73
167 Poinsett Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,070 (+0%)	8mo	$153,000	$143	70
421 Loring Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	991 (-7%)	13mo	$25,000	$25	70
6 Emily Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,145 (+7%)	9mo	$70,000	$61	65
727 Wen Le Dr	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,098 (+3%)	10mo	$110,000	$100	60
526 E Charlotte Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,198 (+12%)	13mo	$160,000	$134	54
527 E Charlotte Ave	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	951 (-11%)	9mo	$146,500	$154	53
609 E Charlotte Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,203 (+13%)	11mo	$144,000	$120	51
525 Carrol Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,175 (+10%)	16mo	$47,500	$40	50
105 S Magnolia St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,193 (+12%)	15mo	$156,000	$131	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $10,143
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $33,337
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29150

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 384
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,422 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $486/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,020

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $352	-5% $335	+0% $318	+5% $301	+10% $284
Rent	-10% $205	-5% $261	+0% $318	+5% $374	+10% $430
Rate	-1.0pp $348	-0.5pp $333	base $318	+0.5pp $302	+1.0pp $286

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $59,900 Active 276 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $59,900 Active 274 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 273 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,900 Active 272 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,900 Active 271 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 270 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,900 Active 268 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,900 Active 267 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $59,900 Active 265 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $59,900 Active 264 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,900 Active 263 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 262 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 257 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 256 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 255 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $59,900 Active 254 DOM
17. 2026-01-10
    price $59,900
18. 2025-11-13
    price $64,500
19. 2025-09-18
    listed $69,500 Active
20. 2021-06-07
    soldstatus $160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $486 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $486 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,069
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$486
• − Insurance: −$5,418
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,365
• − Management: −$1,365
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $3,336
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$801
• After-tax cash flow: $3,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter 01
• NCES district ID: 4503902
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,423
• Composite: 19.45/100
• National rank: #8775
• State rank: #64 of 80 in SC

Livability — Sumter

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #19754

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sumter, SC
• County: Sumter County · 76,912 people
• City population: 67,992
• Metro: Sumter, SC
• Population (ZIP): 38,538
• Household income: $50,965
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1136.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,585 people
• By 2030: 102,282 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 96,258 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 89,592 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 74,715 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 60,235 · -42.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 39% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.9% · R 47.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: 15.4pp · 2024: 4.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.9 2020: D+13.0 2016: D+12.0 2012: D+17.5 2008: D+15.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.16%
• Current HPI: 129.032
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Sumter, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

-62.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $59,900 SBOR
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $64,500 SBOR
• 2025-09-18 Listed $69,500 SBOR
• 2021-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $486 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.