46412 Chapman Dr #77 · Lexington Park, MD 20653

$27,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 798 sqft · Manufactured · 44 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * You'll love living in this 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home within a wonderful family-friendly community. Check out the awesome amenities your community has to offer such as a playground, a clubhouse, community events, and more! This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $27,400

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating
• Home design: Spec new construction, plan 90166; Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area of 798

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Electric heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $27k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 55.4% vs local median 4.0% in Lexington Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#331 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 94 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $193 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $837 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $27,063 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 55.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 175.52%
• DSCR: 8.81
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.21×
• Total profit: $64,116
• Equity at exit: $4,160

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.08×
• Total profit: $133,394
• Equity at exit: $2,412

Cash invested: $7,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20653

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,690 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$146
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$35 /mo · $418/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $1,143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $244

Max offer price $27,900

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,162	-5% $1,152	+0% $1,143	+5% $1,133	+10% $1,123
Rent	-10% $1,009	-5% $1,076	+0% $1,143	+5% $1,209	+10% $1,276
Rate	-1.0pp $1,157	-0.5pp $1,150	base $1,143	+0.5pp $1,135	+1.0pp $1,128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,975
• Closing costs: $837
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $27,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $27,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $27,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $27,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $27,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $27,900 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $27,900 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $27,900 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $27,900 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $27,900 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $27,900 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $27,900 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $27,900 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $27,900 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $27,400 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $27,400 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $27,400 Active 399-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,563
• − Property taxes: −$418
• − Insurance: −$140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,623
• − Management: −$1,623
• − Depreciation: −$812
• Taxable income: $14,107
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,386
• After-tax cash flow: $10,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — Lexington Park

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #17418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington Park, MD
• County: Saint Marys County · 48,152 people
• City population: 26,852
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• Population (ZIP): 26,852
• Household income: $103,048
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1571.0

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 28% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.67%
• Current HPI: 256.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.49%
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B