134 Fourth · Jordan, NY 13166

$16,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 80 Days on market

Built 1994 3,049 sqft lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This 2 bedroom could be a nice home with a little work. Comes with stainless steel stove and refrigerator. Has a great deck and 2 car parking.

Key facts

• Great deck
• 2 car parking
• 3,049 sq ft lot

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL STOVE
• STAINLESS STEEL REFRIGERATOR
• GREAT DECK
• 2 CAR PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease: $525/month

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Public water connected
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; 1 story; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular lot; Main thoroughfare frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 2 main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Main-level primary bedroom; Primary suite
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $16k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $16k).
• Recommended offer: $15k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 89.6% vs local median 1.1% in Jordan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#581 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Jordan-Elbridge Central School District (rural): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #277 of 590 in NY (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($111 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $15,040 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 9.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 89.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 297.35%
• DSCR: 14.23
• GRM: 0.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $48,020
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
134 Fourth	0.00mi	2/1.5	980 (0%)	0mo	$13,000	$13	100
114 4th Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (0%)	5mo	$8,500	$9	86
117 Meadowlark Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,020 (+4%)	13mo	$89,500	$88	76
116 Oakleaf Dr	0.11mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,056 (+8%)	3mo	$52,000	$49	75
210 Henderson Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (0%)	5mo	$37,500	$38	72
115 Briarwood Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,020 (+4%)	16mo	$97,500	$96	71
125 Oakleaf Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	907 (-7%)	22mo	$85,995	$95	64
4 Lower Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+10%)	12mo	$35,000	$32	55
118 Oakleaf Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,073 (+10%)	22mo	$49,900	$47	54
19 Lower Ln	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+8%)	20mo	$55,000	$52	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.73×
• Total profit: $79,441
• Equity at exit: $14,414

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 40.82×
• Total profit: $178,387
• Equity at exit: $31,084

Cash invested: $4,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13166

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 0.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,545 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$84
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$20 /mo · $240/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $1,110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $140

Max offer price $16,000

Occupancy floor 23%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,000
• Closing costs: $480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $16,000 Pending 80 DOM
2. 2026-04-26
   price $16,000
3. 2026-03-10
   listed $18,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,542
• − Mortgage interest: −$896
• − Property taxes: −$240
• − Insurance: −$80
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,483
• − Management: −$1,483
• − Depreciation: −$465
• Taxable income: $13,894
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,334
• After-tax cash flow: $9,987/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jordan-Elbridge Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615990
• Math proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $55,408
• Composite: 49.11/100
• National rank: #2049
• State rank: #277 of 590 in NY

Livability — Jordan

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #581
• US rank: #10506

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,667

Population outlook (Cayuga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 74,820 people
• By 2030: 72,402 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 66,917 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 61,007 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 48,047 · -35.8%
• By 2100: 34,512 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cayuga

• 2024 margin: R (+13.0) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.5pp · 2024: -13.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.0 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.2 2012: D+10.8 2008: D+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.93%
• Current HPI: 347.8499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $16,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $18,000 UNYREIS