9617 E Southgate Dr · Inverness, FL 34450

$278,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 188 Days on market

Built 1974 0.54 ac lot Est $258k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• ARV discount +3.9/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this charming single-family 2 bedroom, 2 bath home. Also features Florida Room, 2 car attached garage plus 18x35 detached carport & 8 x 20 utility building for storage and hobbies. New roof 2019 & new HVAC 2025 for added peace of mind. Spacious Florida room features new high wind resistant Anderson windows. Relax on the screened porch overlooking back yard and your private lake access to Lake Henderson. Floating Dock. Perfect for boating, fishing or sunset views. This home blends comfort and functionality perfectly. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a place to entertain, this home has it all.

Key facts

• Detached carport
• New hvac
• Florida room

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• DETACHED CARPORT
• UTILITY BUILDING
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC
• SCREENED PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Garage(s), storage and workshop structures on property; Zoning: CLR

Exterior

• Parking: 4 total parking spaces; Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Detached carport; Paved driveway; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story home; Residential property
• Construction: Stucco construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Block and slab foundation; Built as single-family residence
• Exterior features: Dock; Outdoor pool; Landscaped yard; Corner lot; Waterfront access with lake privileges; Paved road frontage (county road)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Open floor plan; Walk-in closet(s); Primary bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in garage; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $876 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $279k).
• Recommended offer: $245k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.9% in Inverness — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#564 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Inverness Primary School (math 54% / reading 55%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 683 students, 65% FRL); Inverness Middle School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 1,017 students, 60% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 208 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $279k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,432 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.46%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $258,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9402 E Southgate Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,148 (-9%)	11mo	$284,000	$247	70
9816 E Pebble Creek Ct	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,284 (+2%)	19mo	$190,000	$148	66
9335 E Beech Cir	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,280 (+2%)	1mo	$240,000	$188	66
9526 E Village Green Cir	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,367 (+8%)	4mo	$200,000	$146	66
178 N Golf Harbor Path	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,194 (-5%)	11mo	$249,900	$209	60
9866 E Pebble Creek Ct	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,162 (-8%)	14mo	$168,400	$145	60
9851 E Pebble Creek Ct	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,155 (-8%)	15mo	$226,500	$196	57
9703 E Granada Ct	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,112 (-12%)	11mo	$319,000	$287	57
410 N Golf Harbor Path	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,222 (-3%)	13mo	$287,000	$235	51
209 S Ebb Way	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,359 (+8%)	17mo	$220,000	$162	46
2 S Lunar Ter	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,312 (+4%)	16mo	$365,000	$278	44
9126 E Gospel Island Rd	0.56mi	2/1.5	1,388 (+10%)	15mo	$285,000	$205	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $10,480
• Equity at exit: $41,585

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $80,479
• Equity at exit: $24,114

Cash invested: $78,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34450

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $878/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $876

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,091

Max offer price $278,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,725
• Closing costs: $8,367
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8515 E Gospel Island Rd Inverness, FL	3.0	2.0	1585	$3,200	$2.02	21d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $278,900 Pending 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $278,900 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $278,900 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $278,900 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $278,900 Active 182 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $278,900 Active 181 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $278,900 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $278,900 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $278,900 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $278,900 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $278,900 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-05-08
    price $278,900
13. 2026-04-08
    price $298,900
14. 2026-03-27
    price $304,900
15. 2025-12-09
    listed $318,900 Active
16. 2019-11-20
    soldstatus $140,000
17. 2002-07-09
    soldstatus $87,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $878 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,315 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,437/yr (+$120/mo · 163.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,623
• − Property taxes: −$878
• − Insurance: −$1,394
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,072
• − Management: −$3,072
• − Depreciation: −$8,113
• Taxable income: $6,247
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,499
• After-tax cash flow: $9,013/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Inverness

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #564
• US rank: #10791

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,621
• Population (ZIP): 10,408

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.56%
• Current HPI: 315.9725
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+220.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $278,900 RACC
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $298,900 RACC
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $304,900 RACC
• 2025-12-09 Listed $318,900 RACC
• 2019-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2002-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $878 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.