242 Road 590108 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$150,990

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,212 sqft · SingleFamily · 182 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition $125/sqft · 9% below area Est $165k · 9% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 29238194 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1212 A1 - Navajo The Navajo Plan from our Celebration Series offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends open main-level living with private bedroom suites upstairs. With 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,212 square feet of well-planned space, this home is ideal for buyers seeking comfort, efficiency, and modern design. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and foyer, leading into a hallway that opens to the kitchen, dining, and family room. The kitchen features an island with breakfast bar seating and generous counter space, opening to the dining and family room for easy everyday living. A patio door off the dining and living space provides access to outdoor enjoyment, while a convenient half bath completes the main level. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a dedicated full bath.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Patio door
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• BREAKFAST BAR SEATING
• PATIO DOOR
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE RETREAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $151k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $79 ($952/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $132,871 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.25%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,266
• List price: $150,990
• Delta: -8.64%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
381 Lucia Way	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,208 (-0%)	1mo	$172,990	$143	80
378 Lucia Way	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,208 (-0%)	1mo	$174,990	$145	80
385 Lucia Way	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,049 (-13%)	1mo	$170,991	$163	58
382 Lucia Way	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,033 (-15%)	0mo	$156,990	$152	57
338 Road 5840 Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (+11%)	1mo	$172,000	$127	52
662 Road 5846	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,277 (+5%)	6mo	$255,000	$200	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-17,928
• Equity at exit: $22,513

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,889
• Equity at exit: $13,055

Cash invested: $42,277 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,434 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$792
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$189 /mo · $2,265/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,333

Max offer price $150,990

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,748
• Closing costs: $4,530
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1192 Road 57071 Cleveland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$950	$0.95	1d	1	0.76mi
203 Road 5248 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	910	$1,680	$1.85	15d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,990 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $150,990 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $151,990 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $151,990 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $151,990 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $151,990 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $151,990 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $151,990 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $151,990 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $151,990 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $151,990 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $151,990 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $151,990 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $151,990 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $159,990 927-char remark

    Show marketing remark (927 chars)

    MLS# 29238194 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1212 A1 - Navajo The Navajo Plan from our Celebration Series offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends open main-level living with private bedroom suites upstairs. With 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,212 square feet of well-planned space, this home is ideal for buyers seeking comfort, efficiency, and modern design. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and foyer, leading into a hallway that opens to the kitchen, dining, and family room. The kitchen features an island with breakfast bar seating and generous counter space, opening to the dining and family room for easy everyday living. A patio door off the dining and living space provides access to outdoor enjoyment, while a convenient half bath completes the main level. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a dedicated full bath.

16. 2026-04-23
    price $160,990 927-char remark

    Show marketing remark (927 chars)

    MLS# 29238194 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1212 A1 - Navajo The Navajo Plan from our Celebration Series offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends open main-level living with private bedroom suites upstairs. With 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,212 square feet of well-planned space, this home is ideal for buyers seeking comfort, efficiency, and modern design. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and foyer, leading into a hallway that opens to the kitchen, dining, and family room. The kitchen features an island with breakfast bar seating and generous counter space, opening to the dining and family room for easy everyday living. A patio door off the dining and living space provides access to outdoor enjoyment, while a convenient half bath completes the main level. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a dedicated full bath.

17. 2026-03-25
    price $169,990 927-char remark

    Show marketing remark (927 chars)

    MLS# 29238194 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1212 A1 - Navajo The Navajo Plan from our Celebration Series offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends open main-level living with private bedroom suites upstairs. With 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,212 square feet of well-planned space, this home is ideal for buyers seeking comfort, efficiency, and modern design. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and foyer, leading into a hallway that opens to the kitchen, dining, and family room. The kitchen features an island with breakfast bar seating and generous counter space, opening to the dining and family room for easy everyday living. A patio door off the dining and living space provides access to outdoor enjoyment, while a convenient half bath completes the main level. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a dedicated full bath.

18. 2026-03-11
    price $174,990 927-char remark

    Show marketing remark (927 chars)

    MLS# 29238194 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1212 A1 - Navajo The Navajo Plan from our Celebration Series offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends open main-level living with private bedroom suites upstairs. With 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,212 square feet of well-planned space, this home is ideal for buyers seeking comfort, efficiency, and modern design. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and foyer, leading into a hallway that opens to the kitchen, dining, and family room. The kitchen features an island with breakfast bar seating and generous counter space, opening to the dining and family room for easy everyday living. A patio door off the dining and living space provides access to outdoor enjoyment, while a convenient half bath completes the main level. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a dedicated full bath.

19. 2026-02-12
    price $187,990 927-char remark

    Show marketing remark (927 chars)

    MLS# 29238194 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1212 A1 - Navajo The Navajo Plan from our Celebration Series offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends open main-level living with private bedroom suites upstairs. With 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,212 square feet of well-planned space, this home is ideal for buyers seeking comfort, efficiency, and modern design. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and foyer, leading into a hallway that opens to the kitchen, dining, and family room. The kitchen features an island with breakfast bar seating and generous counter space, opening to the dining and family room for easy everyday living. A patio door off the dining and living space provides access to outdoor enjoyment, while a convenient half bath completes the main level. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a dedicated full bath.

20. 2025-12-18
    listed $188,878 Active 927-char remark

    Show marketing remark (927 chars)

    MLS# 29238194 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1212 A1 - Navajo The Navajo Plan from our Celebration Series offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends open main-level living with private bedroom suites upstairs. With 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,212 square feet of well-planned space, this home is ideal for buyers seeking comfort, efficiency, and modern design. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and foyer, leading into a hallway that opens to the kitchen, dining, and family room. The kitchen features an island with breakfast bar seating and generous counter space, opening to the dining and family room for easy everyday living. A patio door off the dining and living space provides access to outdoor enjoyment, while a convenient half bath completes the main level. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a dedicated full bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,207
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,458
• − Property taxes: −$2,265
• − Insurance: −$755
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,377
• − Management: −$1,377
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,392
• Taxable loss: −$1,536
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$369
• After-tax cash flow: $1,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This Navajo model home requires extensive renovations and repairs to bring it up to a livable condition. Significant updates to the kitchen, bathrooms, exterior, and HVAC system are needed to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen — No photos of the kitchen
• Major Bathrooms — No photos of the bathrooms
• Major Roof — No photos of the roof
• Major Exterior — No photos of the exterior
• Major Flooring — No photos of the flooring
• Major Interior walls/paint — No photos of the interior walls/paint
• Major Windows — No photos of the windows
• Major Foundation/structure — No photos of the foundation/structure
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals
• Major Landscaping/curb appeal — No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen with updated appliances and cabinets would significantly enhance the home's appeal
• Resale Bathroom renovation — Upgraded bathrooms with modern fixtures and finishes would attract more buyers
• Both Exterior paint and landscaping — A fresh coat of paint and well-maintained landscaping would improve curb appeal and attract more renters
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen · No photos of the kitchen	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · No photos of the bathrooms	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · No photos of the roof	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior · No photos of the exterior	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · No photos of the flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No photos of the interior walls/paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · No photos of the windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation/structure · No photos of the foundation/structure	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping/curb appeal · No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 10 items		$150,000–500,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen with updated appliances and cabinets would significantly enhance the home's appeal ↑
• Resale Bathroom renovation — Upgraded bathrooms with modern fixtures and finishes would attract more buyers ↑
• Both Exterior paint and landscaping — A fresh coat of paint and well-maintained landscaping would improve curb appeal and attract more renters ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $159,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $160,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $169,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $174,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $187,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $188,878 HARMLS