312 5th St NW · Ortonville, MN 56278

$85,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1900 5,140 sqft lot $96/sqft · 36% above area Est $98k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is just one block from downtown Ortonville and several scenic city parks! The main floor welcomes you with a spacious kitchen perfect for entertaining, a bright dining room, and a convenient entryway with laundry. Retreat to the main-floor bedroom featuring a walk-in closet and a private en-suite bath for your own personal haven. Upstairs, you'll find two more cozy bedrooms and a full bath—ideal for family, guests, or a home office setup. This home is the perfect blend of comfort, location, and small-town charm!

Key facts

• Main-floor bedroom
• Walk-in closet
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BRIGHT DINING ROOM
• MAIN-FLOOR BEDROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATH
• HOME OFFICE SETUP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-121/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $83k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $78k (8.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $78k (8.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#278 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3 units permitted in Big Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Big Stone County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,500 (8.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,843
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -13.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-14,383
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-13,216
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56278

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,694/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$163
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $788

Max offer price $83,219

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
611 Lake Ave Apt 8 Ortonville, MN	2.0	1.0	650	$775	$1.19	43d	1	0.16mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-02-01
    historical
17. 2025-07-28
    listed $89,000 Active
18. 2025-07-01
    historical
19. 2024-12-02
    listed $110,000 Active
20. 2022-05-09
    soldstatus $75,000 Sold
21. 2022-05-09
    soldstatus $75,000
22. 2022-04-27
    status Pending
23. 2022-04-27
    historical Contingent - Inspection
24. 2022-04-08
    listed $79,000 Active
25. 2019-02-02
    historical
26. 2013-04-03
    soldstatus $29,000
27. 2013-04-03
    soldstatus $21,500
28. 2013-04-03
    soldstatus $29,000
29. 2011-01-05
    listed $35,000
30. 2011-01-05
    listed $35,000
31. 2004-08-04
    soldstatus $22,000
32. 2004-08-01
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,694 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,694 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,694
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$744
• − Management: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable loss: −$1,541
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$370
• After-tax cash flow: $249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Ortonville

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #278
• US rank: #6074

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ortonville, MN
• Population (ZIP): 2,685

Population outlook (Big Stone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,608 people
• By 2030: 4,380 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 3,941 · -14.5%
• By 2050: 3,551 · -22.9%
• By 2075: 2,917 · -36.7%
• By 2100: 2,284 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 22% Romanian 4% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Big Stone

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.6) · D 34.2% · R 63.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.9pp toward R · 2008: 6.4pp · 2024: -29.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.6 2020: R+27.2 2016: R+25.1 2012: R+1.4 2008: D+6.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.28%
• Current HPI: 205.2834
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+304.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-28 Listed $89,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-02 Listed $110,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-09 Sold (MLS) $75,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-27 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-27 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-08 Listed $79,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $21,500 Public Records
• 2013-04-03 Sold (MLS) $29,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-03 Sold (MLS) $29,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-05 Listed $35,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-05 Listed $35,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,694 · +30.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.