179 Warwick Ave · Rochester, NY 14611

$104,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1920 5,400 sqft lot Est $167k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Delayed Negotiations Until Monday, 8/18 at 4pm This delightful single-family residence offers four bedrooms and a bathroom, complemented by a spacious walkable attic. These features make it an excellent option for a growing family or a valuable asset for a rental portfolio. The home is move-in ready, showcasing generous bedrooms with plenty of closet space, along with a contemporary kitchen and bathroom. Additionally, the property includes a large enclosed front porch, ideal for relaxation or entertaining guests. The distinctive double entry stairwell adds a unique character that is increasingly rare in modern homes.

Key facts

• 5,400 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 14 days

Tags

• LARGE ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• DOUBLE ENTRY STAIRWELL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $663 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,742/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 2168% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-2.9% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $104,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.10%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $167,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
71 Normandy Ave	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,808 (+0%)	3mo	$132,000	$73	86
211 Wellington Ave	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,904 (+6%)	1mo	$262,000	$138	82
71 Aberdeen St	0.43mi	4/1.5	1,740 (-3%)	2mo	$245,000	$141	71
35 Milton St	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,811 (+1%)	4mo	$185,000	$102	68
174 Gardiner Ave	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,937 (+8%)	0mo	$205,507	$106	62
88 Gardiner Ave	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-7%)	1mo	$108,000	$64	61
469 Arnett Blvd	0.26mi	4/2.0	2,060 (+14%)	3mo	$125,000	$61	58
71 Inglewood Dr	0.62mi	4/1.0	1,949 (+8%)	3mo	$170,000	$87	55
21 Gladstone St	0.58mi	4/1.0	1,584 (-12%)	1mo	$10,000	$6	52
14 Burlington Ave	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,721 (-4%)	1mo	$230,000	$134	52
392 Frost Ave	0.65mi	4/1.0	1,569 (-13%)	2mo	$75,000	$48	47
528 Post Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,608 (-11%)	3mo	$150,000	$93	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.93% appreciation · 6.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $31,672
• Equity at exit: $15,962

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.72×
• Total profit: $109,166
• Equity at exit: $9,622

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14611

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,742 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,431/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $663

Break-even live

Break-even rent $903

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $723	-5% $693	+0% $663	+5% $634	+10% $604
Rent	-10% $526	-5% $594	+0% $663	+5% $732	+10% $801
Rate	-1.0pp $716	-0.5pp $690	base $663	+0.5pp $636	+1.0pp $608

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
190 Warwick Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1240	$1,400	$1.13	44d	1	0.04mi
48 Thorndale Ter Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	1700	$1,400	$0.82	15d	1	0.34mi
161 Fillmore St Rochester, NY	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,400	$0.87	15d	1	0.42mi
132 Anthony St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,500	$1.19	3d	1	0.65mi
478 Tremont St Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,500	$1.05	44d	1	0.71mi
485 Sawyer St Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,900	$1.36	44d	1	0.73mi
485 Sawyer St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	0.73mi
249 1/2 Columbia Ave #249 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1600	$1,300	$0.81	15d	1	0.78mi
193 Reynolds St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1342	$1,800	$1.34	21d	1	0.79mi
32 Stanton St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1390	$1,500	$1.08	11d	1	0.86mi
385 Ames St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1738	$1,500	$0.86	21d	1	0.91mi
79 Evangeline St Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1876	$2,500	$1.33	3d	1	0.91mi
649 Jay St Rochester, NY	5.0	2.0	2144	$2,000	$0.93	3d	1	1.01mi
793 Woodbine Ave Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	3d	1	1.01mi
102 Virginia Ave Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	1453	$2,150	$1.48	3d	1	1.14mi
108 Wetmore Park Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,900	$1.49	11d	1	1.37mi
1317 Genesee St Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1720	$2,550	$1.48	3d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-10-20
   soldstatus $112,000
2. 2025-08-26
   status Pending
3. 2025-08-12
   listed $104,900 Active
4. 2020-09-11
   soldstatus $67,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,431 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,602 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$171/yr (+$14/mo · 11.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$1,431
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,672
• − Management: −$1,672
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $6,678
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,603
• After-tax cash flow: $6,356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 17,145
• Household income: $31,376
• Rent vs Own: 64.5% rent · 35.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2168.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 22% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 13% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.93%
• Current HPI: 262.1549
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.37%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+67.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 2025-08-26 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $104,900 UNYREIS
• 2020-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,431 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.