4216 Kingman Ln · Bakersfield, CA 93301

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1996

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Why wait for the weekend to relax? Step into a home that feels like a year-round vacation. Nestled in the highly coveted Royal Palms 55+ active community, this isn& apos; t just a place to live, it& apos; s a place to thrive. THE CROWN JEWEL: While most community living means sharing the pool, this home features your very own private hot tub/spa in the backyard. It is in pristine condition and fully included, offering a secluded spot for morning soaks or evening relaxation under the Bakersfield stars. This home is truly turn-key with high-ticket updates: BRAND NEW AC: Only 1 year old - stay icy cool with maximum efficiency. STORAGE GALORE: Not one, but two spacious Tuff Sheds are i

Key facts

• Plantation shutters
• Private hot tub spa
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• PRIVATE HOT TUB SPA
• TWO SPACIOUS TUFF SHEDS
• PREMIUM WASHER AND DRYER
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1996
• Construction: 1996 construction
• Exterior features: Located in the Homaker Park subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $441 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, crime F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.1%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($44k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,801 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.52%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $83,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
701 Underwood Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$85,000	$59	85
1012 Coconut Way	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	11mo	$75,000	$52	80
4401 Prince St	0.19mi	2/1.8 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$54,000	$38	79
4217 Kingman Ln	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (-3%)	13mo	$89,000	$64	77
4204 Prince St	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-5%)	1mo	$80,000	$58	76
609 42nd St	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$37,500	$26	72
612 44th St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-7%)	6mo	$95,000	$71	68
4605 Q St	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	6mo	$85,000	$55	64
4300 Prince St	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	7mo	$45,000	$36	58
400 E Roberts Ln #131	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,460 (+1%)	6mo	$84,000	$58	54
400 E Roberts Ln #56	0.72mi	3/1.8	1,440 (0%)	14mo	$90,000	$63	54
400 E Roberts Ln #30	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	10mo	$105,000	$78	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $638
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $18,168
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93301

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,622 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $580/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,064

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1201 40th St Bakersfield, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,219	$1.40	2d	1	0.23mi
3700 Q St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$1,600	$1.47	3d	1	0.51mi
4504 Tierra Verde St Unit C Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	925	$1,595	$1.72	2d	1	0.62mi
223 McCord Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,795	$1.17	2d	1	0.73mi
448 S Oildale Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,500	$1.39	2d	1	0.80mi
1951 Golden State Ave Bakersfield, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1017	$1,695	$1.67	2d	2	0.82mi
3333 El Encanto Ct Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	990	$1,595	$1.61	14d	1	0.84mi
3333 El Encanto Ct Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	990	$1,495	$1.51	2d	1	0.84mi
327 McCord Ave Unit 6 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	2d	1	0.84mi
222 Moneta Ave Unit 222 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,700	$1.63	2d	1	0.92mi
715 30th St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	21d	1	0.94mi
130 El Cerrito Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1767	$2,750	$1.56	43d	1	0.95mi
617 30th St Apt B Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	918	$1,225	$1.33	10d	1	0.96mi
106 E Warren Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1169	$1,400	$1.20	10d	1	0.97mi
2520 Loma Linda Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,075	$1.73	10d	1	1.02mi
222 Harding Ave Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	2d	1	1.02mi
213 Oildale Dr Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	928	$1,195	$1.29	2d	1	1.03mi
516 28th St Unit 4 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	2d	1	1.03mi
627 Hood Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,795	$1.57	2d	1	1.04mi
631 28th St Unit 5 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,075	$1.03	2d	1	1.05mi
631 28th St Unit 3 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,075	$1.03	21d	1	1.05mi
115 Irene St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1620	$1,900	$1.17	2d	1	1.06mi
627 Beardsley Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	967	$1,575	$1.63	43d	1	1.08mi
114 Flower St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.5	1771	$2,000	$1.13	2d	1	1.19mi
217 Jefferson St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	980	$1,550	$1.58	21d	1	1.22mi
419 Washington Ave Unit 417 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	975	$1,500	$1.54	2d	1	1.35mi
415 Jeffrey St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	2d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $580 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,063 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$483/yr (+$40/mo · 83.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 39 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$580
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,558
• − Management: −$1,558
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $3,168
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$760
• After-tax cash flow: $4,537/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bakersfield

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #21355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bakersfield, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 499,124
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 13,620
• Household income: $43,561
• Rent vs Own: 63.5% rent · 36.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1296.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 41% Two or more races 16% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.38%
• Current HPI: 370.1318
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.12%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $139,900 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $580 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.