7804 Dougherty Dr · Middle Smithfield, PA 18302

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Other · 38 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition $135/sqft · 64% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Newer 2022-built home in Rocky Ridge Estates by Champion Homes. Featuring 3BR, 2BA, central air, Primary bedroom with walk-in closet, an oversized living room, spacious deck, and newer shed for additional storage. Conveniently located near I-80, Shawnee Mountain, ESU, the hospital, Delaware Water Gap, Camelback, shopping, casinos, and more. Leasehold includes water, sewer, trash, and road maintenance. Move-in ready! Schedule your showing today! * * * Taxes Incorrect!, Total Annual is $2331.45 * * *

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Newer shed
• Spacious deck

Tags

• NEWER HOME
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OVERSIZED LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS DECK
• NEWER SHED
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease amount: $615
• HOA & community: Land is leased; monthly land lease payment applies

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking (4 spaces); Driveway and off-street parking
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Propane
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); No common walls; Located in Rocky Ridge Estates; Private maintained paved road
• Construction: Vinyl skirting
• Exterior features: Storage; Side porch; Deck; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave; Water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closets; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $945 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 272 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.14%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $106,633
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 64.11%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $31,875
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $105,429
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18302

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 272
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,727 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $945

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,066	-5% $1,006	+0% $945	+5% $885	+10% $824
Rent	-10% $730	-5% $837	+0% $945	+5% $1,053	+10% $1,160
Rate	-1.0pp $1,033	-0.5pp $990	base $945	+0.5pp $900	+1.0pp $854

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6281 Lakeshore Dr E East Stroudsburg, PA	3.0	2.5	1450	$2,750	$1.90	45d	1	1.26mi
1273 Chateau Dr East Stroudsburg, PA	3.0	1.0	1073	$2,700	$2.52	45d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 16 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    listed $175,000 Active 509-char remark
19. 2025-02-15
    price $179,900
20. 2025-01-13
    price $189,900
21. 2024-12-27
    price $198,000
22. 2024-12-26
    price $208,000
23. 2024-12-10
    price $213,000
24. 2024-12-10
    listed $208,000 Active
25. 2022-01-01
    historical
26. 2021-09-24
    listed $119,900
27. 2021-09-24
    listed $119,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,618
• − Management: −$2,618
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $9,096
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,183
• After-tax cash flow: $9,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready home in Rocky Ridge Estates by Champion Homes offers a good condition with a fresh exterior and interior. It has a good potential for value increase with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Newer appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding a smart home system — Smart home features can appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce energy costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Newer appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Smart home features can appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce energy costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Middle Smithfield

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,593

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.00%
• Current HPI: 157.9833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+46.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $175,000 PMAR
• 2025-02-15 Price Changed $179,900 PMAR
• 2025-01-13 Price Changed $189,900 PMAR
• 2024-12-27 Price Changed $198,000 PMAR
• 2024-12-26 Price Changed $208,000 PMAR
• 2024-12-10 Price Changed $213,000 PMAR
• 2024-12-10 Listed $208,000 PMAR
• 2022-01-01 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2021-09-24 Listed $119,900 GLVRMLS
• 2021-09-24 Listed $119,900 PMAR