111 Pin Tail Dr · Shepherd, TX 77331

$74,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,024 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 2014 0.89 ac lot $72/sqft · 54% below area Est $143k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property needs some TLC. Come see the potential

Key facts

• 0.89 acre lot
• Built 2014
• Listed 96 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $74k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $691 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 4.4% in Shepherd — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,112 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $512 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,340 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.04%
• DSCR: 2.78
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,608
• List price: $74,000
• Delta: -48.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
60 Blue Quail Ln	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (+12%)	20mo	$139,788	$121	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $32,063
• Equity at exit: $11,034

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.09×
• Total profit: $84,695
• Equity at exit: $6,398

Cash invested: $20,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77331

• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$388
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,007/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $691

Break-even live

Break-even rent $637

Max offer price $74,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,500
• Closing costs: $2,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $74,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $74,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,500 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,500 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $78,500 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,500 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $78,500 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $78,500 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $78,500 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $78,500 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $78,500 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,500 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,500 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,500 Active 78 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $78,500 Active 77 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    price $78,500 47-char remark

    Show marketing remark (47 chars)

    Property needs some TLC. Come see the potential

19. 2026-04-15
    price $83,500 47-char remark

    Show marketing remark (47 chars)

    Property needs some TLC. Come see the potential

20. 2026-03-14
    listed $88,500 Active 47-char remark

    Show marketing remark (47 chars)

    Property needs some TLC. Come see the potential

21. 2022-04-18
    soldstatus Sold 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    UNRESTRICTED. 2 Bedroom 1 and 1/2 Bath home with additional Cabin for guest or grand kids. The Home is sitting on all most an acre of land with lots of nature trails for the kiddos (Young & Old) to run around. Property features hard wood floor, granite countertops and peace and quiet with lots of wild life.

22. 2022-03-16
    status Pending 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    UNRESTRICTED. 2 Bedroom 1 and 1/2 Bath home with additional Cabin for guest or grand kids. The Home is sitting on all most an acre of land with lots of nature trails for the kiddos (Young & Old) to run around. Property features hard wood floor, granite countertops and peace and quiet with lots of wild life.

23. 2022-03-08
    status Option Pending 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    UNRESTRICTED. 2 Bedroom 1 and 1/2 Bath home with additional Cabin for guest or grand kids. The Home is sitting on all most an acre of land with lots of nature trails for the kiddos (Young & Old) to run around. Property features hard wood floor, granite countertops and peace and quiet with lots of wild life.

24. 2022-02-11
    status Active 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    UNRESTRICTED. 2 Bedroom 1 and 1/2 Bath home with additional Cabin for guest or grand kids. The Home is sitting on all most an acre of land with lots of nature trails for the kiddos (Young & Old) to run around. Property features hard wood floor, granite countertops and peace and quiet with lots of wild life.

25. 2022-02-01
    status Option Pending 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    UNRESTRICTED. 2 Bedroom 1 and 1/2 Bath home with additional Cabin for guest or grand kids. The Home is sitting on all most an acre of land with lots of nature trails for the kiddos (Young & Old) to run around. Property features hard wood floor, granite countertops and peace and quiet with lots of wild life.

26. 2022-01-27
    listed $164,000 Active 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    UNRESTRICTED. 2 Bedroom 1 and 1/2 Bath home with additional Cabin for guest or grand kids. The Home is sitting on all most an acre of land with lots of nature trails for the kiddos (Young & Old) to run around. Property features hard wood floor, granite countertops and peace and quiet with lots of wild life.

27. 2021-10-13
    historical
28. 2021-09-22
    price $159,000
29. 2021-09-14
    listed $154,900 Active
30. 2018-03-29
    soldstatus Sold
31. 2018-01-29
    status Pending
32. 2017-12-14
    price $65,000
33. 2017-12-11
    status Active
34. 2017-11-12
    status Pending
35. 2017-11-01
    status Option Pending
36. 2017-10-25
    listed $60,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,007 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,354 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$347/yr (+$29/mo · 34.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,141
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,145
• − Property taxes: −$1,007
• − Insurance: −$370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,451
• − Management: −$1,451
• − Depreciation: −$2,153
• Taxable income: $7,563
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,815
• After-tax cash flow: $6,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shepherd

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1112
• US rank: #19716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,348

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.98%
• Current HPI: 199.0493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+30.8% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $78,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $83,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $88,500 HARMLS
• 2022-04-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-03-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-02-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-27 Listed $164,000 HARMLS
• 2021-10-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-09-22 Price Changed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2021-09-14 Listed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2018-03-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-01-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-12-14 Price Changed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2017-12-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2017-11-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-11-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-10-25 Listed $60,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+103.9%/yr

Latest (2018): $1,007 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.