Is 2217 Bakersfield Dr in Fort Worth, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 5.3% cap rate and $-238/mo modeled cash flow at a $294,490 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2217 Bakersfield Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 5.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,380/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 44.2

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +8.9/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Livability +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.1/10.0
Rent growth +3.1/5.0
Schools +2.7/10.0
DSCR +2.5/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$294,490

2217 Bakersfield Dr · Fort Worth, TX 76036

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · SingleFamily · 162 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,502 sqft lot 2-car garage $221/sqft · 34% below area Est $446k · 34% under $83/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Stunning new D. R. Horton home in the Longhorn Estates community located in Fort Worth and Crowley ISD! The single-story Anderson floorplan, Elevation C, with an estimated Summer completion, offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a well-designed open-concept layout perfect for modern living. The family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen blend seamlessly, creating a bright and inviting central gathering space. The chef-inspired kitchen features quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets with hardware, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, stainless steel sink, center island, and a walk-in pantry for convenient storage.

Key facts

Quartz countertops
Open-concept layout
Walk-in pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $294k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-238 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (11.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (19.2% below list).
Recommended offer: $238k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.0% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Crowley ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #643 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: S H Crowley El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 512 students, 66% FRL); H F Stevens Middle (math 16% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 747 students, 84% FRL); Crowley H S (math 23% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 2,351 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 52% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1648 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 82d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,041 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.81% ✗
Cap rate: 5.32%
Cash-on-cash: -3.46%
DSCR: 0.85
GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $446,384
List price: $294,490
Delta: -34.03%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2224 Bakersfield Dr	1.39mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-0%)	4mo	$296,990	$224	61
2224 White Buffalo Way	1.33mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+6%)	2mo	$292,990	$209	55
5024 Cervinae Rd	1.46mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+7%)	5mo	$289,990	$204	50
10620 Diamond Mine Dr	1.37mi	3/2.5	1,405 (+6%)	5mo	$302,990	$216	50
11133 Lone Ranger Ln	1.43mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+9%)	4mo	$309,990	$214	47
10909 Lone Ranger Ln	1.42mi	3/2.0	1,201 (-10%)	4mo	$288,990	$241	45
10633 Diamond Mine Dr	1.33mi	3/2.0	1,589 (+19%)	1mo	$307,685	$194	39
10752 Bloodstone Dr	1.49mi	3/2.0	1,621 (+22%)	2mo	$326,190	$201	38
10617 Diamond Mine Dr	1.34mi	3/2.0	1,589 (+19%)	2mo	$312,685	$197	38
2212 White Buffalo Way	1.37mi	3/2.0	1,573 (+18%)	4mo	$319,990	$203	36
2201 Johnny Cash Dr	1.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,606 (+21%)	4mo	$318,290	$198	31
2220 White Buffalo Way	1.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,606 (+21%)	5mo	$319,990	$199	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -22.9%
Equity multiple: 0.22×
Total profit: $-64,480
Equity at exit: $43,909

10-year hold

IRR: -19.3%
Equity multiple: 0.00×
Total profit: $-82,208
Equity at exit: $25,462

Cash invested: $82,457 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 0 active · 8 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76036

Home prices YoY: -25.2%
Rents YoY: 2.3%
Active inventory: 1648
Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,380 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,544
Tax est. 1.5%: −$368 /mo · $4,417/yr
Insurance: −$123
HOA: −$83
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
Net cashflow: $-238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,681

Max offer price $260,105

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-34	-5% $-136	+0% $-238	+5% $-339	+10% $-441
Rent	-10% $-426	-5% $-332	+0% $-238	+5% $-144	+10% $-50
Rate	-1.0pp $-89	-0.5pp $-163	base $-238	+0.5pp $-314	+1.0pp $-392

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $73,622
Closing costs: $8,835
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6629 Coyote Valley Trl Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,250	$1.36	82d	1	0.02mi
84 Rock Creek Dr Crowley, TX	2.0	2.0	1020	$2,025	$1.99	2d	1	0.85mi
4932 Water Lily Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$2,595	$1.40	153d	1	1.42mi
5665 Ladytown Ln Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,150	$1.19	0d	1	1.45mi
5665 Ladytown Ln Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,150	$1.19	10d	1	1.45mi
5021 Chital Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$2,200	$1.43	92d	1	1.46mi
5041 Wellborn Rd Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,300	$1.51	130d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Easements for utilitiesMinerals retained by developer (exclusion)
Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA and VA financing
HOA & community: Mandatory association with annual fee (management fees included)HOA management: VCM, Inc.Community features include pool, park, playground, jogging/bike path and sidewalks

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage (garage faces front, 2-car single door)2 covered parking spaces
Security: Smoke detector(s)
Utilities: City waterCity sewerElectricity connectedIndividual gas meterIndividual water meterNatural gas availableCable availablePhone availableSewer availableCommunity mailboxConcrete curbs and sidewalksUnderground utilities
Home design: Single family residenceOne storyResidential propertyNew construction (incomplete, 2026)Not attached to other unitsSubdivision: Longhorn Estates
Construction: Composition roofBrick, fiber cement, frame and rock/stone exterior materialsSlab foundationYear built 2026 (new construction - incomplete)
Exterior features: Covered front and rear porchesCovered porch(es)Rear covered porchWood fencing in back yardLandscaped yard with sprinkler systemFew treesInterior lot

Interior

Kitchen: Gas rangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalWater line to refrigeratorPlumbed for gas in kitchenBuilt-in cabinets
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with separate shower and walk-in closetTwo additional bedrooms on main level
Flooring: CarpetLuxury vinyl plank
Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Central air (electric)Gas water heaterTankless water heater
Interior features: Open floorplanEat-in kitchenKitchen islandGranite countersPantry / Walk-in pantryCable TV availableSmart home systemVented exhaust fan
Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer areaWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupSeparate utility room

HOA detail $83/mo · $996/yr

Likely covers: gas

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $294,490 Active 162 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $294,490 Active 161 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $294,490 Active 160 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $294,490 Active 159 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $294,490 Active 158 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $294,490 Active 156 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $294,490 Active 155 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $294,490 Active 154 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $294,490 Active 153 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $294,490 Active 152 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $294,490 Active 151 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $294,490 Active 150 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $294,490 Active 149 DOM
2026-10-25

days on market $294,490 Active 148 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $294,490 Active 147 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $294,490 Active 146 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $294,490 Active 145 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $294,490 Active 144 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $294,490 Active 143 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $294,490 Active 142 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $294,490 Active 141 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $294,490 Active 140 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $294,490 Active 139 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $294,490 Active 138 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $294,490 Active 137 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $294,490 Active 136 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $294,490 Active 135 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $294,490 Active 134 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $294,490 Active 133 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $294,490 Active 132 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $294,490 Active 131 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $294,490 Active 130 DOM
2026-10-07

price $294,490 Active 129 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $292,490 Active 129 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $292,490 Active 128 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $292,490 Active 127 DOM
2026-10-03

days on market $292,490 Active 126 DOM
2026-10-03

price $292,490 Active 125 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $294,490 Active 125 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $294,490 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $294,490 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $294,490 Active 122 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $294,490 Active 121 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $294,490 Active 120 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $294,490 Active 119 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $294,490 Active 118 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $294,490 Active 117 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $294,490 Active 116 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $294,490 Active 115 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $294,490 Active 114 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $28,565
− Mortgage interest: −$16,496
− Property taxes: −$4,417
− Insurance: −$1,472
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,285
− Management: −$2,285
− HOA: −$996
− Depreciation: −$8,567
Taxable loss: −$7,954

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,909
After-tax cash flow: $-943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This stunning new D.R. Horton home in Longhorn Estates is move-in ready with excellent condition and a well-designed floor plan.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
Both Interior staging — Can make the home more appealing to potential buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary S H Crowley El F TX #2,791/4,322 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle Richard Allie Middle F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Crowley H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Crowley ISD
NCES district ID: 4815910
Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $59,810
Composite: 25.04/100
National rank: #7549
State rank: #643 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 80/100

Livability — Fort Worth

Score: 80/100
State rank: #49
US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Tarrant County · 2,380,417 people
City population: 911,619
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 36,044
Household income: $97,973
Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 2%
Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -80.45%
Current HPI: 238.6365
Rent YoY: ▲ 2.28%
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-0.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-06-03 Price Changed $299,990 NTREIS
2026-05-30 Listed $301,990 NTREIS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…