5011 Reed Rd · Houston, TX 77033

$170,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1940 0.29 ac lot $129/sqft · at area comps Est $177k · at est. ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This expansive 0.29-acre parcel (approximately 12,632 sq ft) stands out as a prime build site in southeast Houston, where generous lot sizes are increasingly rare and highly sought after. While there is an existing older home, the true gem here is the spacious, cleared land—perfect for your dream custom home, a modern duplex, or investment property with room to grow. Location is everything, and this property delivers: close to key amenities including parks, shopping, and major thoroughfares for seamless connectivity across the city. In an up-and-coming area with strong community roots and rising potential, this lot represents exceptional value for builders, investors, or homeowners ready to create something new. Don't miss your chance to claim this versatile, conveniently located property—ideal for building the future you envision!

Key facts

• Versatile property
• Rising potential
• Up and coming area

Tags

• SPACIOUS CLEARED LAND
• CLOSE TO KEY AMENITIES
• UP AND COMING AREA
• STRONG COMMUNITY ROOTS
• RISING POTENTIAL
• VERSATILE PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $397 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,004/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1728% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,700 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.01%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,664
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -3.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4918 Carmen St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-5%)	1mo	$213,000	$169	77
4817 Wenda St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,310 (-1%)	1mo	$85,000	$65	75
5234 Wilmington St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,230 (-7%)	1mo	$76,500	$62	70
4821 Alvin St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,307 (-1%)	4mo	$174,000	$133	69
9413 Arden Ct	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,440 (+9%)	1mo	$214,900	$149	62
4842 Larkspur St	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-9%)	2mo	$200,000	$167	61
8126 Marcy Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (-6%)	1mo	$195,000	$157	60
5639 Westover St	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,289 (-2%)	3mo	$230,000	$178	58
4737 Alvin St	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-8%)	4mo	$95,000	$78	57
5602 Beldart St	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,173 (-11%)	3mo	$160,000	$136	57
5711 Belmark St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,429 (+8%)	3mo	$86,000	$60	50
8918 Vinearbor St	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,400 (+6%)	3mo	$239,900	$171	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,829
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $57,002
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77033

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,004 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,687/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,502

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	43d	1	0.06mi
5407 Thrush Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1407	$1,495	$1.06	14d	1	0.27mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	43d	1	0.29mi
5012 Higgins St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1611	$1,650	$1.02	24d	1	0.35mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	43d	1	0.38mi
4921a Pederson St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,150	$1.22	12d	1	0.41mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	5d	1	0.43mi
9509 Merle St Unit 9509A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1404	$1,500	$1.07	43d	1	0.61mi
5623 Bellfort St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1320	$1,700	$1.29	15d	1	0.70mi
4538 Clover St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,595	$0.90	43d	1	0.72mi
7918 Jutland Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	996	$1,295	$1.30	43d	1	0.77mi
5222 Northridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,850	$1.42	24d	1	0.77mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	15d	1	0.83mi
4514 Galesburg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,500	$2.08	24d	1	0.89mi
5767 Belcrest St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,790	$1.21	43d	1	0.90mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	12d	1	0.95mi
8107 Calhoun Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,250	$1.73	24d	1	0.98mi
7710 Darnay Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1635	$2,095	$1.28	43d	1	1.03mi
5314 Longmeadow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1646	$1,900	$1.15	43d	1	1.04mi
4601 White Rock St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,500	$1.47	43d	1	1.06mi
4613 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,300	$1.44	43d	1	1.10mi
4406 Sterling St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,999	$1.09	17d	1	1.11mi
4609 Bricker St Unit C Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,200	$2.91	12d	1	1.12mi
4609 Bricker St Unit ABC Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1375	$3,500	$2.55	11d	1	1.12mi
4609 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$3,500	$2.69	12d	1	1.12mi
5942 Ridgeway Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1490	$2,250	$1.51	43d	1	1.19mi
5458 Osprey Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1614	$1,595	$0.99	20d	1	1.26mi
7358 Guadalcanal Rd Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1768	$2,195	$1.24	43d	1	1.33mi
4530 Mayflower St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,800	$1.38	43d	1	1.35mi
5426 Greylog Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,750	$1.45	24d	1	1.38mi
10902 Faircroft Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,480	$1.13	43d	1	1.39mi
4117 Shelby Cir Unit 1230900P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1367	$5,355	$3.92	2d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $170,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-05-14
    price $170,000 861-char remark

    Show marketing remark (861 chars)

    This expansive 0.29-acre parcel (approximately 12,632 sq ft) stands out as a prime build site in southeast Houston, where generous lot sizes are increasingly rare and highly sought after. While there is an existing older home, the true gem here is the spacious, cleared land—perfect for your dream custom home, a modern duplex, or investment property with room to grow. Location is everything, and this property delivers: close to key amenities including parks, shopping, and major thoroughfares for seamless connectivity across the city. In an up-and-coming area with strong community roots and rising potential, this lot represents exceptional value for builders, investors, or homeowners ready to create something new. Don't miss your chance to claim this versatile, conveniently located property—ideal for building the future you envision!

13. 2026-02-24
    listed $185,000 Active 861-char remark

    Show marketing remark (861 chars)

    This expansive 0.29-acre parcel (approximately 12,632 sq ft) stands out as a prime build site in southeast Houston, where generous lot sizes are increasingly rare and highly sought after. While there is an existing older home, the true gem here is the spacious, cleared land—perfect for your dream custom home, a modern duplex, or investment property with room to grow. Location is everything, and this property delivers: close to key amenities including parks, shopping, and major thoroughfares for seamless connectivity across the city. In an up-and-coming area with strong community roots and rising potential, this lot represents exceptional value for builders, investors, or homeowners ready to create something new. Don't miss your chance to claim this versatile, conveniently located property—ideal for building the future you envision!

14. 2023-02-03
    historical
15. 2023-01-23
    status Active
16. 2023-01-20
    historical
17. 2022-12-12
    price $205,000
18. 2022-10-19
    listed $217,000 Active
19. 2022-09-06
    soldstatus
20. 2011-01-26
    soldstatus
21. 1997-05-15
    soldstatus
22. 1997-05-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,687 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$424/yr (+$35/mo · 15.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,687
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,924
• − Management: −$1,924
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $2,195
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$527
• After-tax cash flow: $4,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,154
• Household income: $38,071
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1728.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 17% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.49%
• Current HPI: 212.6472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2023-02-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-01-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-01-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-12-12 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-19 Listed $217,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-01-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-05-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-05-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,687 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.