9575 Main St · Elko New Market, MN 55020

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1919 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1919

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $964 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 2.3% in Elko New Market — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#331 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lakeville Public School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #21 of 301 in MN (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 699 units permitted in Scott County in 2024 (84 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Scott County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $125k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1919 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1919 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.06%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $41,186
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.29×
• Total profit: $115,050
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55020

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,694/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $964

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,074

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,035	-5% $1,000	+0% $964	+5% $929	+10% $894
Rent	-10% $783	-5% $874	+0% $964	+5% $1,055	+10% $1,146
Rate	-1.0pp $1,027	-0.5pp $996	base $964	+0.5pp $932	+1.0pp $899

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9726 Saint Andrews Dr Elko New Market, MN	3.0	3.0	1876	$2,295	$1.22	11d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-22
   price $125,000
2. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-16
   listed $180,000 Active
4. 2010-03-23
   soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,694 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,694 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,694
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,203
• − Management: −$2,203
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $10,176
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,442
• After-tax cash flow: $9,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeville Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2717780
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $96,899
• Composite: 56.36/100
• National rank: #1164
• State rank: #21 of 301 in MN

Livability — Elko New Market

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #7493

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elko New Market, MN
• City population: 2,582
• Population (ZIP): 4,391

Population outlook (Scott County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,899 people
• By 2030: 177,290 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 199,019 · +20.0%
• By 2050: 216,883 · +30.7%
• By 2075: 256,099 · +54.4%
• By 2100: 276,434 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 18% Italian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Scott

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.5) · D 44.8% · R 53.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.7pp toward D · 2008: -11.2pp · 2024: -8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.5 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+15.4 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.27%
• Current HPI: 254.875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $125,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $180,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,694 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.