8 Pinecrest Rd · New York Mills, NY 13413

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 875 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1955 0.37 ac lot Est $178k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable and conveniently located this charming Ranch offers comfortable one level living. Features include 3 bedrooms, eat-in kitchen, attached garage and a nice yard perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Close to shopping, dining, parks and everyday conveniences. A wonderful opportunity for homeowners looking for value, comfort and convenience.

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Close to dining
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• NICE YARD
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• CLOSE TO PARKS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Open porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $724 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 5.1% in New York Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#175 in NY, #2,712 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• New Hartford Central School District (suburban): math 65% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #128 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $189,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.34%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,500
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Cone Cir	0.19mi	3/1.0	925 (+6%)	9mo	$230,000	$249	74
23 Balsam Cres	0.22mi	3/1.0	875 (0%)	23mo	$166,000	$190	71
6 Elmhurst Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0	976 (+12%)	2mo	$218,000	$223	63
7 Oakdale Ave S	0.45mi	3/1.0	912 (+4%)	18mo	$189,900	$208	57
7 Francis Rd	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (-5%)	16mo	$144,900	$174	55
17 Hara Cres	0.63mi	3/1.0	864 (-1%)	20mo	$176,000	$204	52
12 Leard Rd	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-1%)	15mo	$160,000	$185	45
7 Watts Rd	0.55mi	2/1.5 (-1)	840 (-4%)	18mo	$163,000	$194	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $15,393
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $73,012
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13413

• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,617 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$550
• Net cashflow: $724

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,701

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $831	-5% $778	+0% $724	+5% $670	+10% $616
Rent	-10% $517	-5% $621	+0% $724	+5% $827	+10% $931
Rate	-1.0pp $820	-0.5pp $772	base $724	+0.5pp $675	+1.0pp $625

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
167 Clinton Rd New Hartford, NY	3.0	1.0–2.5	1063	$3,000	$2.82	45d	15	0.58mi
4770 Middle Settlement Rd Whitesboro, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$2,085	$2.88	45d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $189,900 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 343-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $189,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,225 · $269/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,225 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,513
• − Management: −$2,513
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $6,046
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,451
• After-tax cash flow: $7,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Hartford Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620370
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,028
• Composite: 61.37/100
• National rank: #769
• State rank: #128 of 590 in NY

Livability — New York Mills

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #2712

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 3,012
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,742
• Household income: $95,261
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 4% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Vietnam, China, Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.17%
• Current HPI: 295.4235
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $189,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,225 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.