307 Nicole Dr · Barbecue, NC 27332

$215,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1995 0.46 ac lot Est $177k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open floor plan with Great & dining. Spacious bedrooms. Separate laundry, Small storage shelter in back. Great buy!!

Key facts

• Bright open layout
• New custom rear deck
• Two storage sheds

Tags

• BRIGHT OPEN LAYOUT
• CUSTOM GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW CUSTOM REAR DECK
• CAR CARPORT
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Additional storage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Updated / remodeled condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and cooling; Heat pump
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Walk-in closets; Fireplace in the family room
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.3% in Barbecue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Western Harnett High (math 57% / reading 58%, grade C, #245 of 535 statewide, top 46%, 1,386 students, 60% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 58% at this address vs 35% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Harnett County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 458 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $215k implies a 357% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,171 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.51%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,904
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36 Andrea Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,401 (-0%)	12mo	$125,500	$90	73
310 Nicole Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	15mo	$138,000	$91	72
544 Nicole	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-14%)	1mo	$159,850	$133	60
150 Kathleen Ter	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,511 (+8%)	21mo	$231,000	$153	53
45 Country Walk Ln	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	12mo	$189,900	$126	52
648 Nicole Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-12%)	20mo	$135,000	$110	47
69 Gabrielle Ter	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,523 (+8%)	20mo	$209,900	$138	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-10,255
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $33,973
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27332

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,022 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $640/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,608

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Kathleen Ter Sanford, NC	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,499	$1.42	14d	1	0.24mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $215,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $220,000
17. 2026-04-22
    listed $225,000 Active
18. 2020-05-22
    soldstatus $47,000
19. 2014-08-21
    soldstatus $25,000 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    Open floor plan with Great & dining. Spacious bedrooms. Separate laundry, Small storage shelter in back. Great buy!!

20. 2014-08-04
    listed $37,500 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    Open floor plan with Great & dining. Spacious bedrooms. Separate laundry, Small storage shelter in back. Great buy!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $640 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,763 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,123/yr (+$94/mo · 175.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$640
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,941
• − Management: −$1,941
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $366
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$88
• After-tax cash flow: $3,833/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harnett County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702010
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,400
• Composite: 29.88/100
• National rank: #6397
• State rank: #130 of 178 in NC

Livability — Barbecue

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barbecue, NC
• County: Lee County · 76,725 people
• Metro: Sanford, NC
• Population (ZIP): 36,947
• Household income: $78,447
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 632.0

Population outlook (Harnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,758 people
• By 2030: 166,581 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 192,741 · +25.4%
• By 2050: 218,332 · +42.0%
• By 2075: 275,422 · +79.1%
• By 2100: 313,511 · +103.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Harnett

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.9% · R 62.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.61%
• Current HPI: 252.2719
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.87%
• Metro: Sanford, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+486.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $220,000 TMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $225,000 TMLS
• 2020-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-21 Sold (MLS) $25,000 LPRMLS
• 2014-08-04 Listed $37,500 LPRMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $640 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.