627 Fairholm Ave · Peoria, IL 61603

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 926 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1920 4,108 sqft lot $54/sqft · 69% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor owned property ready to rent * Freshly painted, new flooring throughout * Staircase to the upstairs divides the room in two separate areas * Fenced yard *

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• New flooring
• Freshly painted

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESHLY PAINTED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking (no garage)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Built in 1920; Total building area: 926
• Construction: Shingle roof; Not new construction
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen present (no appliances specified)
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (one on the main level; one on the upper level)
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank in kitchen; Carpet in bedrooms and living room
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Gas water heater; Central air (also listed as none)
• Interior features: Partial unfinished basement; No fireplaces; No built-in appliances listed
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($980 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 5.6% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#270 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Peoria SD 150 (urban): math 11% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #554 of 620 in IL (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Peoria High School (math 4% / reading 7%, grade F, #609 of 693 statewide, top 88%, 1,447 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 70% district-wide (70 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 104 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 73 units permitted in Peoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Peoria County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.30%
• DSCR: 2.66
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $29,498
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: 69.16%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2918 NE Madison Ave	0.14mi	2/1.0	944 (+2%)	11mo	$28,500	$30	81
600 Spitznagle Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0	924 (-0%)	10mo	$37,000	$40	80
516 Phelps St	0.12mi	2/1.0	960 (+4%)	11mo	$28,000	$29	80
2806 NE Madison Ave	0.17mi	2/2.0	976 (+5%)	3mo	$24,000	$25	77
632 Haungs Ave	0.17mi	2/1.5	1,005 (+8%)	1mo	$29,900	$30	75
3310 NE Madison Ave	0.29mi	2/1.0	970 (+5%)	5mo	$31,000	$32	74
223 NE Rock Island Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0	984 (+6%)	0mo	$25,000	$25	72
2507 NE Madison Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+8%)	3mo	$24,000	$24	64
601 NE Rock Island Ave	0.14mi	2/1.0	792 (-14%)	12mo	$53,500	$68	59
515 Harvard St	0.54mi	2/1.0	858 (-7%)	6mo	$26,000	$30	57
649 Spitznagle Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	799 (-14%)	22mo	$51,000	$64	42
1235 E Seneca Pl	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,062 (+15%)	3mo	$62,000	$58	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $20,070
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.95×
• Total profit: $55,152
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61603

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $980 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $688/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $430

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $463	-5% $448	+0% $434	+5% $420	+10% $406
Rent	-10% $357	-5% $396	+0% $434	+5% $473	+10% $512
Rate	-1.0pp $459	-0.5pp $447	base $434	+0.5pp $421	+1.0pp $408

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2302 NE Monroe St Peoria, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$875	$0.80	14d	1	0.40mi
2121 N Prospect Rd Peoria, IL	3.0	1.0	946	$802	$0.85	14d	1	0.76mi
506 Caroline St Unit B Peoria, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$900	$0.90	14d	1	1.01mi
737 E Gift Ave Unit 737 Peoria, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,125	$1.41	44d	1	1.09mi
3912 N Atlantic Ave Peoria Heights, IL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,100	$1.33	44d	1	1.40mi
901 NE Glen Oak Ave Unit 2 Peoria, IL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	21d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,900 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,900 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    listed $49,900 Active 156-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $688 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $910 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$222/yr (+$19/mo · 32.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$688
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$941
• − Management: −$941
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $4,693
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,126
• After-tax cash flow: $4,085/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peoria SD 150
• NCES district ID: 1731230
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,951
• Composite: 10.92/100
• National rank: #9751
• State rank: #554 of 620 in IL

Livability — Peoria

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #5096

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Peoria, IL
• County: Peoria County · 120,495 people
• City population: 114,670
• Metro: Peoria, IL
• Population (ZIP): 15,356
• Household income: $41,618
• Rent vs Own: 47.1% rent · 52.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 849.0

Population outlook (Peoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 183,007 people
• By 2030: 179,643 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 171,782 · -6.1%
• By 2050: 163,508 · -10.7%
• By 2075: 140,178 · -23.4%
• By 2100: 114,493 · -37.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 43% White 36% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Peoria

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.5% · R 46.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: 13.9pp · 2024: 4.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.7 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+13.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.98%
• Current HPI: 141.5343
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.49%
• Metro: Peoria, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $49,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $688 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.