81-83 Noe St · San Francisco, CA 94114

$1,995,000

8 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,546 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1900 2,500 sqft lot Est $1862k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Positioned in the heart of Duboce Triangle, 81-83 Noe Street presents a rare opportunity to acquire a well-located duplex with strong upside potential, flexible living arrangements, and stunning San Francisco views. Spanning approximately 3,546 square feet across three levels, the property features a spacious vacant 2-bedroom owner's unit filled with natural light, a tenant-occupied upper unit with expansive attic space offering potential future development opportunity, and an additional vacant lower-level with four rooms. Rear decks on each level overlook a deep backyard and capture impressive city views. Ideally located near the Castro, Hayes Valley, Mission Dolores, Valencia Corridor, pa

Key facts

• Rear decks
• San francisco views
• Deep backyard

Tags

• SAN FRANCISCO VIEWS
• TENANT-OCCUPIED UPPER UNIT
• EXPANSIVE ATTIC SPACE
• FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITY
• REAR DECKS
• DEEP BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Two total units; one unit leased, one unit vacant
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Home design: Residential income property (duplex); Built in 1900
• Construction: Building area approximately 3,546 square feet
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 2,500 sq. ft.; No specific lot features listed

Interior

• Bedrooms: Seven total bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms
• Interior features: Three-unit layout with upper, middle, and lower-level units

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 4-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $2.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($37k/yr) — positive. Per door: $2k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.87M (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.87M (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.4%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $18,710/mo this rent would consume 110% of the median local household income ($204k/yr) (locally 1336% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $203k of equity ($14k loan paydown + $190k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (9.5% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $559k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$327k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.97M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $1,871,000 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.65%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,861,650
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
446-448 Waller St	0.26mi	7/— (-1)	3,600 (+2%)	19mo	$3,850,000	$1,069	64
75-79 Brosnan St	0.51mi	8/4.0	3,656 (+3%)	5mo	$1,385,000	$379	63
230-234 Pierce St	0.30mi	7/— (-1)	3,930 (+11%)	3mo	$2,750,000	$700	61
789-793 Page St	0.31mi	7/3.0 (-1)	3,825 (+8%)	9mo	$2,100,000	$549	60
152-154 Ord St	0.61mi	8/4.0	3,522 (-1%)	10mo	$2,590,000	$735	58
188-190 Guerrero St	0.46mi	8/3.0	3,108 (-12%)	14mo	$1,320,000	$425	46
28-32A Elgin Park	0.57mi	7/2.0 (-1)	3,392 (-4%)	13mo	$1,780,000	$525	46
260-266 Clinton Park St	0.40mi	8/4.0	3,918 (+10%)	18mo	$1,600,000	$408	44
152 Central Ave	0.61mi	7/— (-1)	4,000 (+13%)	4mo	$1,500,000	$375	42
146-156 Rose St	0.67mi	7/4.0 (-1)	3,450 (-3%)	19mo	$1,350,000	$391	39
506-508 Guerrero St	0.60mi	8/4.0	3,155 (-11%)	15mo	$1,325,000	$420	38
1176-1178 Fulton St	0.67mi	7/2.0 (-1)	4,038 (+14%)	2mo	$4,000,000	$991	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.51% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $1,314,574
• Equity at exit: $1,725,983

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.06×
• Total profit: $3,942,991
• Equity at exit: $3,648,827

Cash invested: $558,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94114

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Rents YoY: 14.4%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 17.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,710 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,462
• Tax from tax record: −$392 /mo · $4,703/yr
• Insurance: −$831
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,929
• Net cashflow: $3,096

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,791

Max offer price $1,995,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,225	-5% $3,660	+0% $3,096	+5% $2,531	+10% $1,966
Rent	-10% $1,618	-5% $2,357	+0% $3,096	+5% $3,835	+10% $4,574
Rate	-1.0pp $4,100	-0.5pp $3,603	base $3,096	+0.5pp $2,579	+1.0pp $2,053

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	4	—	$18,710
Total (2 units)			$18,710

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $498,750
• Closing costs: $59,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $1,995,000 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $1,995,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,095,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,095,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,095,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,095,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $2,095,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,095,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,095,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,095,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,095,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,095,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,095,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-27
    listed $2,095,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,703 · $392/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,162 · $1,264/mo
• Expected delta: +$10,459/yr (+$872/mo · 222.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $224,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$111,751
• − Property taxes: −$4,703
• − Insurance: −$9,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$17,962
• − Management: −$17,962
• − Depreciation: −$58,036
• Taxable income: $4,132
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$992
• After-tax cash flow: $36,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,020
• Household income: $204,134
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1336.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Asian 14% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.51%
• Current HPI: 223.6988
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.40%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $2,095,000 San Francisco MLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,703 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.