413 Carthage St · Caddo Mills, TX 75135

$299,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,017 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 7,187 sqft lot $148/sqft · 10% below area Est $334k · 10% under $44/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming Traditions Series home offers a blend of comfort and functionality, designed to accommodate a variety of lifestyles. The exterior of the home includes a custom and architecturally designed elevation. The front exterior of the home boasts divided light windows and a front facing 2-car garage door with decorative hardware and handles. Enter the home through the covered front porch that leads to the raised panel fiberglass insulated front door (decorative front door options are available for upgrade). Opening the door will lead you to a foyer entry that invites you to the rest of the home. The kitchen features 36" flat panel cabinets with hidden hinges, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. The kitchen layout includes a built-in sink, dishwasher and large pantry for plenty of storage space. The large primary bedroom features an adjoined bathroom that will make getting ready in the mornings feel like a dream. The elongated vanity includes two sinks and a non-framed mirror. The primary bathroom also includes a walk-in shower and walk-in closet. This plan includes ceramic tile flooring in all bathrooms, laminate wood plank in living areas, carpet in bedrooms. Additional bonus features include a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Contact us today for more details!

Key facts

• 7,187 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District present
• Financial info: Second mortgage: none indicated; Loan type: Treat as clear
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual association fee (full use of facilities) — $530; HOA managed by Neighborhood Management

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Attached 2-car garage (approx. 18 ft wide x 20 ft deep)
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: MUD water; MUD sewer; Standard power/utilities available; 12-inch+ attic insulation; Energy-efficient windows
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Not attached to another property
• Construction: New construction (built in 2026)
• Exterior features: Lot less than 0.5 acre (approx. 0.165 acre); Subdivision: Trailstone; Model/home located in a neighborhood setting; Directions available from I-30 to the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (approx. 13 x 20); Three additional bedrooms on level 1 (each approx. 10 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric cooling; Thermostat (energy efficient feature)
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Seven total rooms; One living area; One dining area; Kitchen island
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer connections (standard laundry/utility provisions)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.9% in Caddo Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Caddo Mills ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #60 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Frances And Jeannette Lee El (math 63% / reading 55%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 571 students, 29% FRL); Caddo Mills Middle (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 416 students, 28% FRL); Caddo Mills H S (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 681 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 317 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $43k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $240,853 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.02%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $334,128
• List price: $299,490
• Delta: -10.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
514 Carthage St	0.09mi	4/2.0	2,017 (0%)	1mo	$338,990	$168	95
506 Carthage St	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,060 (+2%)	1mo	$333,490	$162	90
506 Range Rd	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,935 (-4%)	3mo	$299,490	$155	87
113 Lantern Rd	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,060 (+2%)	3mo	$324,900	$158	84
413 Range Rd	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,829 (-9%)	3mo	$331,490	$181	79
167 Mockingbird Way	0.55mi	4/2.0	2,017 (0%)	1mo	$289,000	$143	73
215 Bobcat Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,829 (-9%)	3mo	$298,990	$163	72
211 Buckboard Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,829 (-9%)	3mo	$299,650	$164	71
207 Pintail Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,014 (-0%)	4mo	$304,000	$151	67
108 Condor Pass	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,830 (-9%)	2mo	$267,999	$146	64
404 Flintlock Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,735 (-14%)	3mo	$287,490	$166	63
211 Bobcat Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,735 (-14%)	3mo	$294,030	$169	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-61,904
• Equity at exit: $44,655

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-70,949
• Equity at exit: $25,894

Cash invested: $83,857 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75135

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,409 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,571
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,492/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$44
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,676

Max offer price $268,962

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4	-5% $-107	+0% $-211	+5% $-314	+10% $-418
Rent	-10% $-401	-5% $-306	+0% $-211	+5% $-116	+10% $-21
Rate	-1.0pp $-60	-0.5pp $-135	base $-211	+0.5pp $-289	+1.0pp $-368

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,872
• Closing costs: $8,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 Range Rd Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2060	$2,500	$1.21	3d	1	0.10mi
210 Calico Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2012	$2,400	$1.19	26d	1	0.22mi
132 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,400	$1.35	14d	1	0.44mi
218 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$2,195	$1.27	45d	1	0.47mi
187 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2003	$2,195	$1.10	7d	1	0.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $44 · $528/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,490 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,490 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,490 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,490 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,490 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,490 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,490 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,490 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,490 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,490 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,490 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,490 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,490 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,490 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,490 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $334,490 1416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1416 chars)

    This charming Traditions Series home offers a blend of comfort and functionality, designed to accommodate a variety of lifestyles. The exterior of the home includes a custom and architecturally designed elevation. The front exterior of the home boasts divided light windows and a front facing 2-car garage door with decorative hardware and handles. Enter the home through the covered front porch that leads to the raised panel fiberglass insulated front door (decorative front door options are available for upgrade). Opening the door will lead you to a foyer entry that invites you to the rest of the home. The kitchen features 36" flat panel cabinets with hidden hinges, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. The kitchen layout includes a built-in sink, dishwasher and large pantry for plenty of storage space. The large primary bedroom features an adjoined bathroom that will make getting ready in the mornings feel like a dream. The elongated vanity includes two sinks and a non-framed mirror. The primary bathroom also includes a walk-in shower and walk-in closet. This plan includes ceramic tile flooring in all bathrooms, laminate wood plank in living areas, carpet in bedrooms. Additional bonus features include a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Contact us today for more details!

17. 2026-05-13
    price $334,490 165-char remark
18. 2026-05-12
    price $344,490 1416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1416 chars)

    This charming Traditions Series home offers a blend of comfort and functionality, designed to accommodate a variety of lifestyles. The exterior of the home includes a custom and architecturally designed elevation. The front exterior of the home boasts divided light windows and a front facing 2-car garage door with decorative hardware and handles. Enter the home through the covered front porch that leads to the raised panel fiberglass insulated front door (decorative front door options are available for upgrade). Opening the door will lead you to a foyer entry that invites you to the rest of the home. The kitchen features 36" flat panel cabinets with hidden hinges, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. The kitchen layout includes a built-in sink, dishwasher and large pantry for plenty of storage space. The large primary bedroom features an adjoined bathroom that will make getting ready in the mornings feel like a dream. The elongated vanity includes two sinks and a non-framed mirror. The primary bathroom also includes a walk-in shower and walk-in closet. This plan includes ceramic tile flooring in all bathrooms, laminate wood plank in living areas, carpet in bedrooms. Additional bonus features include a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Contact us today for more details!

19. 2026-05-11
    price $344,490 165-char remark
20. 2026-05-07
    listed $342,490 Active 1416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1416 chars)

    This charming Traditions Series home offers a blend of comfort and functionality, designed to accommodate a variety of lifestyles. The exterior of the home includes a custom and architecturally designed elevation. The front exterior of the home boasts divided light windows and a front facing 2-car garage door with decorative hardware and handles. Enter the home through the covered front porch that leads to the raised panel fiberglass insulated front door (decorative front door options are available for upgrade). Opening the door will lead you to a foyer entry that invites you to the rest of the home. The kitchen features 36" flat panel cabinets with hidden hinges, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. The kitchen layout includes a built-in sink, dishwasher and large pantry for plenty of storage space. The large primary bedroom features an adjoined bathroom that will make getting ready in the mornings feel like a dream. The elongated vanity includes two sinks and a non-framed mirror. The primary bathroom also includes a walk-in shower and walk-in closet. This plan includes ceramic tile flooring in all bathrooms, laminate wood plank in living areas, carpet in bedrooms. Additional bonus features include a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Contact us today for more details!

21. 2026-05-05
    listed $342,490 Active 165-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,902
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,776
• − Property taxes: −$4,492
• − Insurance: −$1,497
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,312
• − Management: −$2,312
• − HOA: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$8,712
• Taxable loss: −$7,728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,855
• After-tax cash flow: $-677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some interior updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be replaced with hardwood or tile for a more modern look and easier maintenance
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase home value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be replaced with hardwood or tile for a more modern look and easier maintenance ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase home value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Mills ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,383
• Composite: 51.73/100
• National rank: #1684
• State rank: #60 of 826 in TX

Livability — Caddo Mills

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #5332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,265
• Population (ZIP): 10,265

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.07%
• Current HPI: 275.2189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $299,490 Zillow
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $299,490 NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $334,490 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $334,490 NTREIS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $344,490 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $344,490 NTREIS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $342,490 Zillow
• 2026-05-05 Listed $342,490 NTREIS