13410 Vestavia Ct · Houston, TX 77069

$195,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1976 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Property has significant repair needs and multiple visible condition concerns. Exterior siding shows areas of deterioration. Visible foundation settlement is present. Roof condition concerns are noted. Garage overhead door is damaged and/or in need of replacement. Pool is in poor condition and appears to need renovation, including possible resurfacing, equipment replacement, and additional repairs. Interior areas show water-damaged ceilings, flooring damage in several areas, and the home appears to need flooring replacement, interior paint, kitchen updates, bathroom updates, and general cosmetic and mechanical repairs. Utilities are currently not active. eavy-value-add opportunity.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease considered: No
• HOA & community: Member of Champions CIA

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1976; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private in-ground pool with pool/spa combo; Corner lot on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Primary bedroom (additional) — first floor; Three bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Primary bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace; Total of 7 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $363 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $192k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bleyl Middle (math 35% / reading 45%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 1,451 students, 72% FRL); Cypress Creek H S (math 60% / reading 59%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 3,366 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 43% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $124k; list at $195k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,075 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.99%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $391,680
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5623 Bermuda Dunes Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,828 (-2%)	0mo	$420,000	$149	88
13339 Balmore Cir	0.26mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,842 (-1%)	1mo	$349,900	$123	80
13607 Wendelyn Ln	0.39mi	4/3.5	2,885 (+0%)	2mo	$385,000	$133	76
5323 Olympia Fields Ln	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,806 (-3%)	0mo	$399,999	$143	75
5810 Olympia Fields Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,492 (-14%)	2mo	$339,999	$136	62
5111 Olympia Fields Ln	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,801 (-3%)	2mo	$373,500	$133	62
13623 Charwell Crossing Ln	0.25mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,210 (+12%)	0mo	$455,000	$142	60
6203 Bermuda Dunes Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	3,164 (+10%)	2mo	$445,000	$141	59
186 Old Bridge Lk	0.65mi	4/3.0	3,108 (+8%)	2mo	$399,000	$128	53
105 Old Bridge Lk	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,622 (-9%)	1mo	$269,900	$103	46
13603 Boca Raton Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0	2,575 (-11%)	2mo	$270,000	$105	44
5714 Glen Pines Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,459 (-15%)	2mo	$369,000	$150	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.09% appreciation · 3.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $9,444
• Equity at exit: $46,190

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $60,542
• Equity at exit: $47,757

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77069

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,707 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$671 /mo · $8,057/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,247

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5135 Westerham Pl Unit 1262307P Houston, TX	5.0	3.5	3358	$17,582	$5.24	22d	1	0.71mi
4807 Wellington Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2876	$2,500	$0.87	43d	1	1.01mi
4622 Falling Sun Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2485	$2,500	$1.01	43d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    status Active
16. 2026-05-20
    historical
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $195,000 Active
18. 2025-10-14
    historical
19. 2025-10-03
    status Pending
20. 2025-10-03
    price $350,000
21. 2025-10-03
    listed $215,000 Active
22. 2025-04-18
    historical
23. 2025-04-04
    price $335,000
24. 2025-03-04
    price $369,000
25. 2025-01-08
    listed $374,000 Active
26. 2025-01-07
    historical
27. 2024-11-11
    price $379,000
28. 2024-10-07
    listed $385,000 Active
29. 2023-06-05
    soldstatus
30. 2023-06-01
    soldstatus Sold
31. 2023-05-01
    status Pending
32. 2023-04-25
    status Option Pending
33. 2023-04-18
    listed $345,000 Active
34. 2023-04-15
    historical $345,000
35. 2022-11-29
    historical
36. 2022-11-14
    price $344,900
37. 2022-10-24
    price $349,900
38. 2022-10-12
    listed $365,000 Active
39. 2021-10-27
    historical
40. 2021-09-30
    status Active
41. 2021-09-26
    status Option Pending
42. 2021-09-10
    listed $310,000 Active
43. 2015-08-12
    soldstatus
44. 2015-08-05
    soldstatus
45. 2015-08-04
    soldstatus Sold
46. 2015-07-14
    status Pending
47. 2015-07-02
    status Option Pending
48. 2015-06-18
    listed $259,900 Active
49. 2000-04-18
    soldstatus
50. 1992-04-01
    soldstatus $123,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,057 · $671/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,057 · $671/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$8,057
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,599
• − Management: −$2,599
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $1,660
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$398
• After-tax cash flow: $3,962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,608
• Household income: $80,257
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1259.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.09%
• Current HPI: 201.0894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.55%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+57.4% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $335,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-04 Price Changed $369,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-08 Listed $374,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-11 Price Changed $379,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-07 Listed $385,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-05-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-04-18 Listed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-15 Coming Soon $345,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-11-14 Price Changed $344,900 HARMLS
• 2022-10-24 Price Changed $349,900 HARMLS
• 2022-10-12 Listed $365,000 HARMLS
• 2021-10-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-09-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-09-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-09-10 Listed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2015-08-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-08-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-07-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-07-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-06-18 Listed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2000-04-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $123,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,057 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.