31 Wickerdale Pl · The Woodlands, TX 77382

$250,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,503 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 2006 2,731 sqft lot $166/sqft · 9% below area Est $276k · 9% under $137/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated Seller! This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom town-home is nestled in Sterling Ridge of The Woodlands, offering the perfect blend of comfort and convenience! NEW INTERIOR PAINT in 2026. ROOF REPLACED in 2025. The kitchen opens seamlessly into the Living Room, creating a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. A half bath is conveniently located downstairs. The spacious primary bedroom is a true retreat, with an elegant ensuite bathroom featuring a walk-in shower, a luxurious soaking tub, double sinks, and a large walk-in closet.The secondary bedrooms are generously sized and share a well-appointed full sized bathroom.The laundry room is located upstairs, making laundry day a breeze! A nice patio, perfect for relaxing after a long day or enjoying some fresh air. Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Soaking tub
• Half bath downstairs

Tags

• KITCHEN OPENS INTO LIVING ROOM
• HALF BATH DOWNSTAIRS
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• STANDING SHOWER
• SOAKING TUB
• DOUBLE SINKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (23.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 291 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($162k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,464 (23.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.68%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,708
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -9.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
158 S Star Ridge Cir	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+7%)	4mo	$330,000	$206	61
22 Garden Lodge Pl	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,592 (+6%)	9mo	$325,000	$204	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-65,129
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-97,787
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77382

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,159 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$485 /mo · $5,818/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$137
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,578

Max offer price $191,464

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30000 FM 2978 Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1175	$1,767	$1.50	3d	49	0.22mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 3047 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,371	$1.50	11d	1	0.23mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 2047 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,918	$1.63	11d	1	0.23mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 30017 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,907	$1.62	10d	1	0.25mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 30013 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,360	$1.50	10d	1	0.25mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 2228 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,875	$1.59	3d	1	0.34mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 3228 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,328	$1.48	3d	1	0.34mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 2162 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,883	$1.60	5d	1	0.34mi
30006 Farm to Market Road 2978 Magnolia, TX	2.0	1.0	1088	$1,766	$1.62	43d	1	0.40mi
10851 W Montfair Blvd The Woodlands, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1067	$2,339	$2.19	12d	45	0.43mi
9396 Woodlands Pkwy Unit EASR Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,649	$1.31	24d	1	0.46mi
9396 Woodlands Pkwy Unit EASR Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,649	$1.31	12d	1	0.46mi
30685 FM 2978 Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1175	$1,748	$1.49	2d	45	0.72mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,975	$1.40	24d	1	1.17mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,000	$1.42	43d	1	1.17mi
3 Peachridge Pl Unit 1 Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	1657	$1,950	$1.18	20d	1	1.18mi
131 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,330	$1.27	5d	1	1.29mi
139 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,846	$1.22	12d	1	1.31mi
7910 Alset Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1897	$2,320	$1.22	43d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $137 · $1,644/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $250,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $265,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    price $265,000 823-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Motivated Seller! This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom town-home is nestled in Sterling Ridge of The Woodlands, offering the perfect blend of comfort and convenience! NEW INTERIOR PAINT in 2026. ROOF REPLACED in 2025. The kitchen opens seamlessly into the Living Room, creating a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. A half bath is conveniently located downstairs. The spacious primary bedroom is a true retreat, with an elegant ensuite bathroom featuring a walk-in shower, a luxurious soaking tub, double sinks, and a large walk-in closet.The secondary bedrooms are generously sized and share a well-appointed full sized bathroom.The laundry room is located upstairs, making laundry day a breeze! A nice patio, perfect for relaxing after a long day or enjoying some fresh air. Schedule your tour today!

15. 2026-04-14
    price $275,000 823-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Motivated Seller! This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom town-home is nestled in Sterling Ridge of The Woodlands, offering the perfect blend of comfort and convenience! NEW INTERIOR PAINT in 2026. ROOF REPLACED in 2025. The kitchen opens seamlessly into the Living Room, creating a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. A half bath is conveniently located downstairs. The spacious primary bedroom is a true retreat, with an elegant ensuite bathroom featuring a walk-in shower, a luxurious soaking tub, double sinks, and a large walk-in closet.The secondary bedrooms are generously sized and share a well-appointed full sized bathroom.The laundry room is located upstairs, making laundry day a breeze! A nice patio, perfect for relaxing after a long day or enjoying some fresh air. Schedule your tour today!

16. 2026-03-24
    price $285,000 823-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Motivated Seller! This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom town-home is nestled in Sterling Ridge of The Woodlands, offering the perfect blend of comfort and convenience! NEW INTERIOR PAINT in 2026. ROOF REPLACED in 2025. The kitchen opens seamlessly into the Living Room, creating a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. A half bath is conveniently located downstairs. The spacious primary bedroom is a true retreat, with an elegant ensuite bathroom featuring a walk-in shower, a luxurious soaking tub, double sinks, and a large walk-in closet.The secondary bedrooms are generously sized and share a well-appointed full sized bathroom.The laundry room is located upstairs, making laundry day a breeze! A nice patio, perfect for relaxing after a long day or enjoying some fresh air. Schedule your tour today!

17. 2026-03-01
    price $295,000 823-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Motivated Seller! This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom town-home is nestled in Sterling Ridge of The Woodlands, offering the perfect blend of comfort and convenience! NEW INTERIOR PAINT in 2026. ROOF REPLACED in 2025. The kitchen opens seamlessly into the Living Room, creating a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. A half bath is conveniently located downstairs. The spacious primary bedroom is a true retreat, with an elegant ensuite bathroom featuring a walk-in shower, a luxurious soaking tub, double sinks, and a large walk-in closet.The secondary bedrooms are generously sized and share a well-appointed full sized bathroom.The laundry room is located upstairs, making laundry day a breeze! A nice patio, perfect for relaxing after a long day or enjoying some fresh air. Schedule your tour today!

18. 2026-02-23
    status Active 823-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Motivated Seller! This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom town-home is nestled in Sterling Ridge of The Woodlands, offering the perfect blend of comfort and convenience! NEW INTERIOR PAINT in 2026. ROOF REPLACED in 2025. The kitchen opens seamlessly into the Living Room, creating a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. A half bath is conveniently located downstairs. The spacious primary bedroom is a true retreat, with an elegant ensuite bathroom featuring a walk-in shower, a luxurious soaking tub, double sinks, and a large walk-in closet.The secondary bedrooms are generously sized and share a well-appointed full sized bathroom.The laundry room is located upstairs, making laundry day a breeze! A nice patio, perfect for relaxing after a long day or enjoying some fresh air. Schedule your tour today!

19. 2026-02-22
    historical 823-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Motivated Seller! This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom town-home is nestled in Sterling Ridge of The Woodlands, offering the perfect blend of comfort and convenience! NEW INTERIOR PAINT in 2026. ROOF REPLACED in 2025. The kitchen opens seamlessly into the Living Room, creating a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. A half bath is conveniently located downstairs. The spacious primary bedroom is a true retreat, with an elegant ensuite bathroom featuring a walk-in shower, a luxurious soaking tub, double sinks, and a large walk-in closet.The secondary bedrooms are generously sized and share a well-appointed full sized bathroom.The laundry room is located upstairs, making laundry day a breeze! A nice patio, perfect for relaxing after a long day or enjoying some fresh air. Schedule your tour today!

20. 2026-02-05
    listed $299,900 Active 823-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Motivated Seller! This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom town-home is nestled in Sterling Ridge of The Woodlands, offering the perfect blend of comfort and convenience! NEW INTERIOR PAINT in 2026. ROOF REPLACED in 2025. The kitchen opens seamlessly into the Living Room, creating a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. A half bath is conveniently located downstairs. The spacious primary bedroom is a true retreat, with an elegant ensuite bathroom featuring a walk-in shower, a luxurious soaking tub, double sinks, and a large walk-in closet.The secondary bedrooms are generously sized and share a well-appointed full sized bathroom.The laundry room is located upstairs, making laundry day a breeze! A nice patio, perfect for relaxing after a long day or enjoying some fresh air. Schedule your tour today!

21. 2025-03-10
    historical $1,850
22. 2025-01-30
    listed $1,850
23. 2009-10-09
    historical
24. 2008-12-01
    listed $138,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,818 · $485/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,818 · $485/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,909
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$5,818
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,073
• − Management: −$2,073
• − HOA: −$1,644
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$8,225
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,974
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Woodlands, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,986
• Household income: $162,384
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 616.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 15% Asian 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.44%
• Current HPI: 233.2304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.25%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+90.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-10 Rental Removed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2025-01-30 Listed for Rent $1,850 HARMLS
• 2009-10-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-12-01 Listed $138,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,818 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.