1111 Archwood Dr SW #341 · Olympia, WA 98502

$194,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2025 $232/sqft · 251% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

SPACIOUS NEW doublewide for sale at Friendly Ridge (55+). Be the first to live in this 2025 Doublewide: 3 bed / 2 bath / 1,176 sq. ft. The home is ready with gorgeous block skirting, a new carport, and an exterior storage shed. Inside you will find large windows, a kitchen island with optional seating, new stainless appliances, and a separate area for laundry. This home is also set up with a new heat pump! Friendly Ridge has a newly renovated community clubhouse with incredible amenities. This wonderful community and is conveniently located near everything Olympia has to offer. Come make it yours!

Key facts

• New heat pump
• New carport
• Kitchen island

Tags

• NEW CARPORT
• EXTERIOR STORAGE SHED
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• NEW STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• SEPARATE AREA FOR LAUNDRY
• NEW HEAT PUMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $493 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $194k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Olympia School District (urban): math 66% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #17 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $143k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $182,830 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.86%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $77,565
• List price: $194,500
• Delta: 150.76%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1111 Archwood Dr SW #382	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+14%)	2mo	$74,950	$78	64
1111 Archwood Dr SW #409	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+14%)	15mo	$143,500	$149	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $137,592
• Equity at exit: $175,221

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.00×
• Total profit: $381,058
• Equity at exit: $377,871

Cash invested: $54,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98502

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,115 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,020
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $923/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $493

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,491

Max offer price $194,500

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,625
• Closing costs: $5,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3311 6th Ave SW Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	888	$2,470	$2.78	14d	16	0.27mi
800 Yauger Way SW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$2,131	$2.06	14d	13	0.40mi
1309 Fern St SW Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	802	$2,206	$2.75	14d	2	0.51mi
1220 Fern St SW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,850	$2.06	44d	2	0.60mi
1900 Black Lake Blvd SW Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$2,137	$2.31	14d	13	0.61mi
1000 Fern St SW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$2,281	$2.56	14d	8	0.65mi
2010 8th Ct SW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1072	$2,295	$2.14	21d	1	0.71mi
2800 Limited Ln NW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,503	$1.94	14d	4	0.75mi
600 Black Lake Blvd SW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	851	$1,600	$1.88	14d	23	0.78mi
300 Kenyon St NW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,995	$2.27	14d	6	0.80mi
121 Decatur St NW Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	21d	1	0.99mi
125 Decatur St NW Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,900	$1.94	21d	1	1.00mi
1221 Evergreen Park Dr SW Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	880	$1,749	$1.99	14d	2	1.18mi
1626 Madison Ave NW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1064	$2,100	$1.97	14d	1	1.22mi
1415 Evergreen Park Dr SW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,735	$1.65	14d	1	1.23mi
3120 14th Ave NW Unit 3118-B Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	826	$1,600	$1.94	44d	1	1.35mi
3120 14th Ave NW Unit 3108-A Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	753	$1,550	$2.06	44d	1	1.35mi
2008 Evergreen Park Dr SW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,799	$2.40	44d	3	1.37mi
2121 Evergreen Park Dr SW Unit 48 Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,525	$1.79	44d	1	1.38mi
5004 4th Way SW Olympia, WA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1271	$2,645	$2.08	14d	5	1.40mi
2820 Tuscany Ln SW Unit 714 Tumwater, WA	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,725	$1.67	21d	1	1.41mi
2820 Tuscany Ln SW Unit 411 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,635	$1.79	44d	1	1.41mi
2820 Tuscany Ln SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,775	$1.94	14d	8	1.41mi
1221 Mottman Rd SW Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$2,195	$2.17	21d	4	1.42mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,500 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,500 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,500 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,500 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $194,500 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,500 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $194,500 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,500 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,500 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $194,500 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $194,500 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,500 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,500 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,500 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $194,500 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-03-26
    listed $194,500 Active
17. 2023-08-16
    soldstatus $143,000 Closed
18. 2023-07-13
    status Pending
19. 2023-06-21
    listed $148,800 Active
20. 2021-02-23
    soldstatus $80,000 Sold
21. 2021-02-16
    status Pending
22. 2021-01-30
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $923 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,906 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$983/yr (+$82/mo · 106.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,379
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,895
• − Property taxes: −$923
• − Insurance: −$972
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,030
• − Management: −$2,030
• − Depreciation: −$5,658
• Taxable income: $2,870
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$689
• After-tax cash flow: $5,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Olympia School District
• NCES district ID: 5306180
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $63,852
• Composite: 62.27/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #17 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olympia, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,398
• Household income: $92,207
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.49%
• Current HPI: 1056.49
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+128.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $194,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-16 Sold (MLS) $143,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-13 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-21 Listed $148,800 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-23 Sold (MLS) $80,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-16 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-30 Listed $85,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $923 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.