22707 Watersedge Blvd #57 · Land O' Lakes, FL 34639

$147,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Townhouse public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1988 513 sqft lot Est $170k · 13% under $325/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

"Short Sale" 2 Bedroom, 1.5 Bath townhouse. Fenced in patio area. Great investment property. * This short sale is being negotiated by an experienced law firm to expedite the process. * Please see attachments.

Key facts

• Fenced patio
• Remodeled
• Upstairs rear deck

Tags

• FENCED PATIO
• UPSTAIRS REAR DECK
• REMODELED
• FILTERED WATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No home warranty; No lease restrictions indicated
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $325; Total annual fees $3,900
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee $325 (includes pool, recreational facilities, trash, water); Association name: Management and Associates; Community pool; Pets allowed (cats and dogs) up to 55 lbs

Exterior

• Utilities: Private water source; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Residential property; Two levels; Faces north; Condo land included
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built footprint consistent with 1,032 square feet living area
• Exterior features: Balcony; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room and dining room combo; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry in a laundry closet; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.7% in Land O' Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pine View Elementary School (math 54% / reading 60%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 573 students, 40% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 173 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $148k implies a 824% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.81%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,280
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22630 Gage Loop #10	0.07mi	2/1.5	1,032 (0%)	2mo	$138,250	$134	93
22706 Gage Loop #31	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,032 (0%)	6mo	$152,000	$147	93
22701 Watersedge Blvd #14	0.04mi	2/1.5	1,032 (0%)	5mo	$147,900	$143	92
22706 Gage Loop #34	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,032 (0%)	17mo	$147,000	$142	84
22604 Watersedge Blvd #153	0.13mi	2/1.5	1,032 (0%)	13mo	$170,000	$165	81
22706 Gage Loop #36	0.03mi	2/1.5	1,032 (0%)	19mo	$157,000	$152	81
22604 Watersedge Blvd #155	0.13mi	2/1.5	1,032 (0%)	14mo	$200,000	$194	80
4401 Dylan Loop #168	0.16mi	2/1.5	1,032 (0%)	14mo	$195,999	$190	79
4427 Dylan Loop #181	0.21mi	2/1.5	1,032 (0%)	18mo	$191,000	$185	74
4427 Dylan Loop #186	0.21mi	2/1.5	1,032 (0%)	24mo	$184,900	$179	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-12,879
• Equity at exit: $22,052

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-7,204
• Equity at exit: $12,788

Cash invested: $41,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34639

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,952 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,737/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$325
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,654

Max offer price $147,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,975
• Closing costs: $4,437
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22630 Gage Loop #7 Land O Lakes, FL	2.0	1.5	1040	$1,600	$1.54	24d	1	0.08mi
4352 Banjo Lake Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1380	$2,400	$1.74	24d	1	0.15mi
4401 Longshore Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1021	$1,850	$1.81	24d	1	0.34mi
23117 Dover Dr Land O Lakes, FL	1.0	1.0	1034	$797	$0.77	24d	1	0.46mi
23223 Club Villas Dr Unit 23223 Land O' Lakes, FL	2.0	2.0	1192	$1,800	$1.51	15d	1	0.59mi
4201 Parkway Blvd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	24d	1	0.70mi
21915 Bell Lake Rd Unit 2 Land O' Lakes, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,150	$2.15	3d	1	0.93mi
3819 Biscay Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,995	$1.68	12d	1	1.27mi
18781 Eden Ln Land O' Lakes, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1231	$2,495	$2.03	5d	1	1.34mi
4934 Addessi Loop Land O' Lakes, FL	1.0	1.0	713	$1,950	$2.73	5d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $325 · $3,900/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $147,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $149,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   remarks 604-char remark
8. 2026-06-02
   status $149,000 Pending 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    remarks 564-char remark
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-05-26
    listed $149,000 Active
13. 2026-05-20
    historical
14. 2026-05-18
    status Active
15. 2026-05-04
    status Pending
16. 2026-05-01
    status Active
17. 2026-04-30
    historical
18. 2026-01-28
    status Active
19. 2026-01-13
    price $149,900
20. 2025-11-20
    listed $159,900 Active
21. 2015-03-26
    soldstatus $16,000
22. 2015-02-27
    soldstatus $16,000 Sold 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    "Short Sale" 2 Bedroom, 1.5 Bath townhouse. Fenced in patio area. Great investment property. * This short sale is being negotiated by an experienced law firm to expedite the process. * Please see attachments.

23. 2014-06-14
    status Pending 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    "Short Sale" 2 Bedroom, 1.5 Bath townhouse. Fenced in patio area. Great investment property. * This short sale is being negotiated by an experienced law firm to expedite the process. * Please see attachments.

24. 2014-06-10
    historical 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    "Short Sale" 2 Bedroom, 1.5 Bath townhouse. Fenced in patio area. Great investment property. * This short sale is being negotiated by an experienced law firm to expedite the process. * Please see attachments.

25. 2013-09-10
    listed $24,900 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    "Short Sale" 2 Bedroom, 1.5 Bath townhouse. Fenced in patio area. Great investment property. * This short sale is being negotiated by an experienced law firm to expedite the process. * Please see attachments.

26. 2007-10-22
    soldstatus $120,000
27. 2007-10-19
    soldstatus $120,000
28. 2007-06-13
    listed $119,395
29. 2006-06-01
    soldstatus $117,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,737 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,737 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,285
• − Property taxes: −$1,737
• − Insurance: −$740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,874
• − Management: −$1,874
• − HOA: −$3,900
• − Depreciation: −$4,303
• Taxable income: $713
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$171
• After-tax cash flow: $2,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Land O' Lakes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Land O' Lakes, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,831
• Household income: $101,486
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 383.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.35%
• Current HPI: 280.2986
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.87%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+27.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records
• 2015-02-27 Sold (MLS) $16,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-10 Listed $24,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2007-10-19 Sold (MLS) $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-13 Listed $119,395 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $117,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+25.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,737 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.