14 Horseshoe Dr · Shelton, CT 06484

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 504 sqft · Manufactured public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1970 ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable and in a convenient location, this 2 bedroom mobile home is in very good condition and looking for a new owner. There's anew deck inside the screened porch, newer wall AC unit keeps the whole place cool in the summer. vinyl replacement windows too!. Located at the beginning of the park, it is a surprisingly quiet location. it's an easy walk to restaurants, banking, shopping or the bus stop. If you are renting, this unit can cut you housing costs, there is financing available with twenty percent down. Land lease, $459.00 per month, includes land lease, cold water, sewer use, trash and recycling,oil tank insurance and any issues underground. All adults over 18 are subject to Park Approval, application is made after a fully executed contract is in place. Pets are allowed, dogs 35lbs or less. Dogs must be brought to the interview with the Park Owner. The furniture can remain or be removed

Key facts

• Newer wall ac unit
• Screened porch
• New deck

Tags

• NEW DECK
• SCREENED PORCH
• NEWER WALL AC UNIT
• VINYL REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• QUIET LOCATION
• EASY WALK TO RESTAURANTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $984 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 3.0% in Shelton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#36 in CT, #2,479 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shelton School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #64 of 153 in CT (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.21%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $45,346
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.13×
• Total profit: $115,596
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06484

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $323/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $984

Break-even live

Break-even rent $750

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,040	-5% $1,012	+0% $984	+5% $956	+10% $927
Rent	-10% $826	-5% $905	+0% $984	+5% $1,063	+10% $1,141
Rate	-1.0pp $1,034	-0.5pp $1,009	base $984	+0.5pp $958	+1.0pp $932

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
63 Heather Rdg #63 Shelton, CT	1.0	1.0	672	$1,850	$2.75	15d	1	0.37mi
6 Daybreak Ln Shelton, CT	1.0	1.0	600	$1,800	$3.00	44d	1	0.56mi
1001 Bridgeport Ave Shelton, CT	1.0	1.0	670	$2,250	$3.36	44d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-02-27
   listed $99,900 Active 908-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Affordable and in a convenient location, this 2 bedroom mobile home is in very good condition and looking for a new owner. There's anew deck inside the screened porch, newer wall AC unit keeps the whole place cool in the summer. vinyl replacement windows too!. Located at the beginning of the park, it is a surprisingly quiet location. it's an easy walk to restaurants, banking, shopping or the bus stop. If you are renting, this unit can cut you housing costs, there is financing available with twenty percent down. Land lease, $459.00 per month, includes land lease, cold water, sewer use, trash and recycling,oil tank insurance and any issues underground. All adults over 18 are subject to Park Approval, application is made after a fully executed contract is in place. Pets are allowed, dogs 35lbs or less. Dogs must be brought to the interview with the Park Owner. The furniture can remain or be removed

2. 2026-02-23
   historical
3. 2025-09-22
   listed $99,900 Active
4. 2024-08-06
   soldstatus $95,000 Closed
5. 2024-05-22
   status Under Contract
6. 2024-05-18
   status Active
7. 2024-04-23
   historical Under Contract - Continue to Show
8. 2024-04-02
   listed $99,900 Active
9. 2024-04-01
   historical
10. 2024-01-03
    listed $119,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $323 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$907/yr (+$76/mo · 280.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,944
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$323
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $10,788
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,589
• After-tax cash flow: $9,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelton School District
• NCES district ID: 0904050
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $84,866
• Composite: 49.37/100
• National rank: #2016
• State rank: #64 of 153 in CT

Livability — Shelton

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #2479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelton, CT
• County: Fairfield County · 765,532 people
• City population: 41,889
• Metro: Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
• Population (ZIP): 41,889
• Household income: $108,185
• Rent vs Own: 23.5% rent · 76.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 874.0

Population outlook (Naugatuck Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 496,846

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 9% Two or more races 8% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Russian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Other Indo-European 8% Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Naugatuck Valley

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.4) · D 45.6% · R 53.0% · Other 1.4%
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -376.90%
• Current HPI: 247.639
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.45%
• Metro: Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $99,900 Smart MLS
• 2026-02-23 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2025-09-22 Listed $99,900 Smart MLS
• 2024-08-06 Sold (MLS) $95,000 Smart MLS
• 2024-05-22 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2024-05-18 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2024-04-23 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2024-04-02 Listed $99,900 Smart MLS
• 2024-04-01 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2024-01-03 Listed $119,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2023): $323 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.