1440 S Orange Ave #66 · El Cajon, CA 92020

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,349 sqft · Manufactured public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2006 Est $134k · 46% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

After entering,take the first left and this newer, lovely home is on the right! Original 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with the 3rd bedroom to be used as a study, retreat, office or workout room and is just a step off the master bdrm. Enjoy the wonderful park location close to plenty of visitor parking. Lovely view of mountains and hills and the park-like setting right across the street. The oversized dining area boasts beautiful custom built-in shelving. There is skylight in light, bright and efficient kitchen.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Ample cabinetry
• Natural light

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• LARGE WINDOWS
• WELL APPOINTED KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in a senior community (Villa Novia); Common-interest lot

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); Single-story
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Community pool; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas Range
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas Range
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $817 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.4% in El Cajon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#230 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $195k implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.95%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,551
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1490 S ORANGE #123	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	9mo	$135,000	$94	76
1440 S Orange Ave Spc 28	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	21mo	$140,000	$97	71
1440 S Orange Ave #85	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	23mo	$158,500	$110	69
1440 S Orange Ave. #52	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	24mo	$142,500	$99	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $18,250
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $74,125
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92020

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,631 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,898/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $817

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,597

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
345 Dahlia Way El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1700	$4,200	$2.47	1d	1	0.40mi
1013 S Sunshine Ave Unit G El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	918	$2,500	$2.72	21d	1	0.42mi
1013 S Sunshine Ave Unit I El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	918	$2,500	$2.72	1d	1	0.42mi
948 S Sunshine Ave Unit 20 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,095	$2.33	1d	1	0.47mi
923 S Sunshine Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,050	$2.28	1d	1	0.47mi
921 S Sunshine Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,350	$2.61	1d	2	0.50mi
761 S Orange Ave Unit B El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,095	$2.10	1d	1	0.74mi
851 Taft Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1792	$3,850	$2.15	1d	1	0.81mi
1036 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1776	$4,350	$2.45	1d	1	0.87mi
1020 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1768	$4,100	$2.32	1d	1	0.87mi
1026 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1771	$4,000	$2.26	1d	1	0.87mi
633 S Johnson Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$2,400	$2.86	1d	4	0.92mi
725 Franklin Ave Unit D El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,150	$2.15	1d	1	0.93mi
553 S Magnolia Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,095	$2.33	1d	2	0.95mi
802 Franklin Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,995	$2.49	4d	2	0.98mi
802 Franklin Ave Unit 858 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,995	$2.22	1d	1	0.98mi
758 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,945	$2.22	1d	3	1.05mi
957 E Washington Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,295	$2.55	1d	1	1.19mi
975 E Washington Ave Apt E El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	21d	1	1.22mi
265 Richardson Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	1024	$3,250	$3.17	2d	1	1.22mi
447 S Lincoln Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.5	928	$2,300	$2.48	1d	1	1.23mi
602 S Mollison Ave Unit C El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	1024	$2,600	$2.54	1d	1	1.24mi
351 S Lincoln Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,395	$2.66	1d	1	1.32mi
620 E Lexington Ave #3 El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,900	$2.90	1d	1	1.32mi
148 Taft Ave Unit 7 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,895	$2.17	1d	1	1.35mi
1065 E Washington Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,850	$2.59	1d	1	1.35mi
1065 E Washington Ave Apt N El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,850	$2.59	17d	1	1.35mi
800 E Lexington Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1040	$2,390	$2.30	1d	5	1.40mi
200 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,995	$2.10	1d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $195,000
16. 2026-04-20
    price $205,000
17. 2026-04-20
    price $210,000
18. 2026-04-10
    listed $225,000 Active
19. 2013-05-06
    soldstatus $60,000 Sold 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    After entering,take the first left and this newer, lovely home is on the right! Original 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with the 3rd bedroom to be used as a study, retreat, office or workout room and is just a step off the master bdrm. Enjoy the wonderful park location close to plenty of visitor parking. Lovely view of mountains and hills and the park-like setting right across the street. The oversized dining area boasts beautiful custom built-in shelving. There is skylight in light, bright and efficient kitchen.

20. 2013-04-04
    status Pending 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    After entering,take the first left and this newer, lovely home is on the right! Original 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with the 3rd bedroom to be used as a study, retreat, office or workout room and is just a step off the master bdrm. Enjoy the wonderful park location close to plenty of visitor parking. Lovely view of mountains and hills and the park-like setting right across the street. The oversized dining area boasts beautiful custom built-in shelving. There is skylight in light, bright and efficient kitchen.

21. 2013-03-01
    listed $75,000 Active 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    After entering,take the first left and this newer, lovely home is on the right! Original 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with the 3rd bedroom to be used as a study, retreat, office or workout room and is just a step off the master bdrm. Enjoy the wonderful park location close to plenty of visitor parking. Lovely view of mountains and hills and the park-like setting right across the street. The oversized dining area boasts beautiful custom built-in shelving. There is skylight in light, bright and efficient kitchen.

22. 2012-11-16
    historical
23. 2012-05-17
    listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,898 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,898 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,898
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,526
• − Management: −$2,526
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $7,054
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,693
• After-tax cash flow: $8,107/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — El Cajon

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #7531

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Cajon, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 173,694
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 57,842
• Household income: $76,032
• Rent vs Own: 55.6% rent · 44.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3892.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 13% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Arab 7% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 21% Arabic 10% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -724.49%
• Current HPI: 361.2373
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.18%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+116.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $195,000 SDMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $205,000 SDMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $210,000 SDMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $225,000 SDMLS
• 2013-05-06 Sold (MLS) $60,000 SDMLS
• 2013-04-04 Pending — SDMLS
• 2013-03-01 Listed $75,000 SDMLS
• 2012-11-16 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2012-05-17 Listed $90,000 SDMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2013): $1,898 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.