1807 Highway 15 · Richton, MS 39476

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,562 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1963 9.00 ac lot $93/sqft · at area comps Est $170k · 15% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1807 MS-15 A brick home on 9 MOL acres with Hwy 15 frontage in Richton — offering easy access and great visibility. The property is packed with a beautiful mix of pines and hardwoods, with mature pecan trees spaced throughout the yard. The back boundary adjoins timber company land, ensuring a private, wooded setting. The main dwelling offers approximately 1,800 sq ft of living space with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, topped with a durable metal roof. A former carport has been enclosed to create a separate living area with heating and cooling — great for guests or a home office. Additional improvements include a storage shed and a separate water well on the property (not currently

Key facts

• Mature pecan trees
• Separate living area
• Storage shed

Tags

• HWY 15 FRONTAGE
• PRIVATE WOODED SETTING
• MATURE PECAN TREES
• SEPARATE LIVING AREA
• STORAGE SHED
• SEPARATE WATER WELL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel, open parking; no garage
• Utilities: Private sewer; Community water; Electricity connected; Propane connected; Water connected; Fiber to the house
• Home design: Single-family house; One level; Accessible approach with ramp; Accessible features present
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Metal roof; Raised and slab foundation; Built (year source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Slab patio/porch; Views; Wooded lot

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Space heater; Central air conditioning; Gas cooling
• Interior features: Storage; Has fireplace (fireplace in a bathroom); Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-114 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#12 in MS, #4,165 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Richton School District (rural): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #57 of 130 in MS (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Richton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #135 of 375 statewide, top 39%, 298 students, 99% FRL); Richton High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #101 of 197 statewide, top 54%, 299 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 62% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Perry County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,863 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.40%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,000
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -14.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55 Rayburn Pierce	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,680 (+8%)	3mo	$170,000	$101	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-30,679
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-35,800
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39476

• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,209 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,353

Max offer price $128,547

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-13	-5% $-64	+0% $-114	+5% $-164	+10% $-214
Rent	-10% $-209	-5% $-161	+0% $-114	+5% $-66	+10% $-18
Rate	-1.0pp $-41	-0.5pp $-77	base $-114	+0.5pp $-151	+1.0pp $-190

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $145,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $145,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $145,000 Active 829-char remark
19. 1981-10-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$1,522
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,160
• − Management: −$1,160
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$3,855
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$925
• After-tax cash flow: $-439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richton School District
• NCES district ID: 2803870
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,300
• Composite: 27.62/100
• National rank: #6925
• State rank: #57 of 130 in MS

Livability — Richton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #4165

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,336

Population outlook (Perry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,969 people
• By 2030: 11,639 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 10,798 · -9.8%
• By 2050: 9,820 · -18.0%
• By 2075: 7,642 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 5,689 · -52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 8% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Perry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.5% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -44.7pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+53.7 2012: R+45.6 2008: R+44.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.70%
• Current HPI: 137.0191
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $145,000 MLSU
• 1981-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $83 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.