8319 White Pine Ln · Baytown, TX 77523

$269,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,745 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 2006 5,606 sqft lot $155/sqft · at area comps Est $272k · at est. $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming home in the quiet subdivision of Pine Meadows features high ceilings in family room with an inviting open concept. The primary bedroom is conveniently located downstairs, with three additional bedrooms upstairs. Enjoy the large fenced backyard and the privacy of no back neighbors. A must-see property in Baytown! Make your appointment today.

Key facts

• Open concept
• High ceilings
• No back neighbors

Tags

• HIGH CEILINGS
• OPEN CONCEPT
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,609 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.87%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,039
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: -0.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8107 Beaver St	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,766 (+1%)	8mo	$315,000	$178	78
8319 Rusty Blackhaw Ln	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,744 (-0%)	1mo	$235,000	$135	74
10618 Pine Meadows Blvd	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,828 (+5%)	2mo	$255,000	$139	70
7922 Cedar View St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (-6%)	2mo	$239,000	$145	66
10807 Mockernut St	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,873 (+7%)	2mo	$269,900	$144	65
7922 Owl Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,823 (+4%)	1mo	$240,000	$132	61
10010 Pine Valley Ct	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,604 (-8%)	3mo	$255,000	$159	55
10635 Gold Finch Rd	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,996 (+14%)	1mo	$255,000	$128	48
7711 Skiron Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,608 (-8%)	2mo	$279,900	$174	47
9918 Wood Wind Ct	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,949 (+12%)	3mo	$129,900	$67	44
10010 Wood Leaf Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,997 (+14%)	4mo	$255,000	$128	36
7814 Brooks Crossing Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,947 (+12%)	7mo	$269,900	$139	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-18,912
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $19,167
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,879 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$360 /mo · $4,321/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,411

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $522	-5% $446	+0% $370	+5% $293	+10% $217
Rent	-10% $142	-5% $256	+0% $370	+5% $483	+10% $597
Rate	-1.0pp $505	-0.5pp $438	base $370	+0.5pp $300	+1.0pp $228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10235 Cedar Crossing St Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$2,506	$2.28	2d	27	0.42mi
1716 Sterling Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$2,250	$1.64	44d	1	0.65mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,900 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,900 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $269,900 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-03-19
    listed $269,900 Active 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    This charming home in the quiet subdivision of Pine Meadows features high ceilings in family room with an inviting open concept. The primary bedroom is conveniently located downstairs, with three additional bedrooms upstairs. Enjoy the large fenced backyard and the privacy of no back neighbors. A must-see property in Baytown! Make your appointment today.

15. 2025-11-22
    historical
16. 2025-10-06
    price $277,000
17. 2025-09-11
    status Active
18. 2025-09-11
    historical
19. 2025-09-10
    listed $282,000 Active
20. 2020-11-30
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2020-11-30
    soldstatus
22. 2020-11-06
    status Pending
23. 2020-10-25
    status Option Pending
24. 2020-10-07
    listed $184,500 Active
25. 2017-06-20
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2017-06-20
    soldstatus
27. 2017-05-27
    status Pending
28. 2017-04-14
    price $171,400
29. 2017-03-24
    status Active
30. 2017-03-18
    status Option Pending
31. 2017-02-26
    listed $174,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,321 · $360/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,939 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: +$619/yr (+$52/mo · 14.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$4,321
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,764
• − Management: −$2,764
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable income: $176
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$42
• After-tax cash flow: $4,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+54.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $277,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-10 Listed $282,000 HARMLS
• 2020-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-11-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-11-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-10-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-10-07 Listed $184,500 HARMLS
• 2017-06-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-06-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-05-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-04-14 Price Changed $171,400 HARMLS
• 2017-03-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2017-03-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-02-26 Listed $174,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,321 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.