12506 Royal Rd #5 · Winter Gardens, CA 92021

$325,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1985 2.23 ac lot Est $238k · 37% over $410/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Manufactured home designated as a condo and where you own the land. And no space rent, just HOA dues. This three-bedroom, two-bath singles story home sports newer paint, newer carpet, and newer vinyl windows. Small yard is perfect for gardening or pet play area. Small community has rec room, pool/spa, and sauna.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Fenced yard
• Pool

Tags

• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• FENCED YARD
• TWO CAR CARPORT
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• DEDICATED GUEST HOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Heading east on the 8 freeway exit Second St and turn left (becomes Winter Gardens), then turn right on Royal Rd.
• HOA & community: Part of Vista Royal Homeowners Association; Association fee $410 per month; Association amenities include a pool and clubhouse; Community of 18 units; Suburban community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; No public water source listed
• Home design: Single-story home; No shared/common walls; Residential zoning
• Construction: Wood construction
• Exterior features: Community pool; Has a view; Lot in a 2–5 units per acre neighborhood

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level entry; Entry opens to the living room; Dining room fireplace; Utility room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in a dedicated room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $326k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($100/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $325k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $321k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.6% in Winter Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#515 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: W. D. Hall Elementary (540 students, 81% FRL); Greenfield Middle (663 students, 84% FRL); El Capitan High (math 20% / reading 54%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,825 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 17% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,246/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 4178% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $226k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $321,109 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,888
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12250 Vista Del Cajon Rd Spc 25	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,275 (-5%)	1mo	$235,000	$184	71
12970 Highway 8 Business #121	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,321 (-2%)	3mo	$218,000	$165	68
13162 Highway 8 Business #104	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	3mo	$260,000	$193	66
12044 Royal Rd Spc 128	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,316 (-2%)	2mo	$200,000	$152	63
13162 Highway 8 Business #200	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (+1%)	2mo	$165,000	$121	60
13162 Highway 8 Business #134	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-3%)	3mo	$140,000	$108	60
13162 Highway 8 Business Spc 78	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+2%)	11mo	$252,000	$184	57
12970 Highway 8 Business #93	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,493 (+11%)	2mo	$265,000	$177	54
1351 Pepper Dr Spc 41	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+4%)	8mo	$235,000	$168	48
13162 Highway 8 Business #201	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,493 (+11%)	10mo	$277,500	$186	42
13162 Highway 8 Business SPC 4	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,147 (-15%)	8mo	$213,000	$186	38
1351 Pepper Dr #26	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-11%)	10mo	$160,000	$133	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-61,571
• Equity at exit: $48,608

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-88,739
• Equity at exit: $28,186

Cash invested: $91,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92021

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,246 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,710
• Tax from tax record: −$301 /mo · $3,608/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$410
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,236

Max offer price $325,999

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $101	+0% $8	+5% $-84	+10% $-176
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-120	+0% $8	+5% $137	+10% $265
Rate	-1.0pp $173	-0.5pp $91	base $8	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-162

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,500
• Closing costs: $9,780
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2000 E Main St El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.5–2.5	1165	$3,300	$2.83	0d	1	0.51mi
8424 Pueblo Rd Unit 8424 Lakeside, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,750	$2.75	0d	1	0.62mi
8031 Winter Gardens Blvd El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1124	$2,995	$2.66	0d	1	0.65mi
8410 Los Coches Rd El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,120	$2.36	0d	1	1.04mi
8809 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	4.0	2.0	1350	$3,800	$2.81	0d	1	1.14mi
1704 Broadway El Cajon, CA	4.0	2.0	1808	$4,800	$2.65	9d	1	1.15mi
9092 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1300	$4,000	$3.08	4d	1	1.17mi
9094 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$4,000	$3.33	0d	1	1.17mi
1365 Broadway El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$3,478	$3.48	3d	1	1.37mi
1221 Oro St El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.5	1020	$2,575	$2.52	0d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $410 · $4,920/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,999 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,999 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,999 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,999 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,999 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,999 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,999 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,999 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,999 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 512-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $325,999 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,608 · $301/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,608 · $301/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,954
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,261
• − Property taxes: −$3,608
• − Insurance: −$1,630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,116
• − Management: −$3,116
• − HOA: −$4,920
• − Depreciation: −$9,484
• Taxable loss: −$5,182
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,244
• After-tax cash flow: $1,344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — Winter Gardens

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #17448

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Gardens, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,501
• Household income: $74,013
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4178.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.88%
• Current HPI: 335.0617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+715.0% since first listed

43 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $325,999 CRMLS
• 2019-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $226,500 Public Records
• 2019-10-04 Sold (MLS) $226,500 SDMLS
• 2019-10-04 Sold (MLS) $226,500 CRMLS
• 2019-08-29 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2019-07-24 Pending — SDMLS
• 2019-07-24 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2019-07-12 Listed $249,000 SDMLS
• 2019-07-12 Listed $249,000 CRMLS
• 2018-11-16 Pending — SDMLS
• 2018-11-16 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2018-11-15 Price Changed $224,000 SDMLS
• 2018-11-14 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2018-11-08 Pending — SDMLS
• 2018-11-07 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2018-11-03 Price Changed $229,000 SDMLS
• 2018-10-30 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2018-10-19 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2018-10-17 Price Changed $235,000 SDMLS
• 2018-09-19 Price Changed $240,000 SDMLS
• 2018-09-12 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2018-09-11 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2018-09-07 Price Changed $244,000 SDMLS
• 2018-08-22 Listed $224,000 CRMLS
• 2018-08-22 Listed $249,000 SDMLS
• 2018-02-20 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2018-01-24 Listed $240,000 SDMLS
• 2018-01-24 Listed $240,000 CRMLS
• 2017-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2017-03-23 Sold (MLS) $220,000 SDMLS
• 2017-02-25 Pending — SDMLS
• 2017-02-08 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2017-02-06 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2016-11-08 Listed $215,000 SDMLS
• 2016-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2016-08-22 Sold (MLS) $200,000 SDMLS
• 2016-08-12 Pending — SDMLS
• 2016-07-02 Listed $215,000 SDMLS
• 2015-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2015-02-19 Sold (MLS) $165,000 SDMLS
• 2015-01-02 Pending — SDMLS
• 2015-01-02 Listed $165,000 SDMLS
• 1990-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,608 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.