26 Box Tree Rd · East Quogue, NY 11942

$2,699,000

6 bd · 5.5 ba · 4,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 2005 Excellent condition 1.57 ac lot 2-car garage $664/sqft · at area comps Est $2.7M · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this stylish Post Modern home in this beautiful East Quogue neighborhood. The home is set on 1.5 sprawling acres featuring 4 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms. The brand new kitchen remodel sparkles with crisp white cabinets, new appliances and stunning countertops. Each and every room is flooded with natural light and features Cathedral ceilings in living room, large Master bedroom, 3 additional well sized bedrooms, 4 full bathrooms and a bonus studio above garage. The 20 x 40 pool and it's surrounding area is spacious, serene and thoughtful. You will be joyously hosting friends/family at this wonderful outdoor retreat with plenty of room to lounge and relax by the pool, barbeque and truly enjoy the Hampton's outdoor living lifestyle! Call today to see this home and make it yours!!

Key facts

• Private office
• Large living room
• Finished basement

Tags

• PRIVATE LONG DRIVEWAY
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• BRIGHT INVITING BREAKFAST ROOM
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• PRIVATE OFFICE
• FINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $2.70M. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16k ($187k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($41k rent vs $2.70M).
• Recommended offer: $2.38M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 9.2% in East Quogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $40,731/mo this rent would consume 457% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $19k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $81k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $756k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.38M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.30M; list at $2.70M implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,375,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.75%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,700,000
• List price: $2,699,000
• Delta: -0.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Honeysuckle Ln	0.36mi	5/4.5 (-1)	4,100 (+1%)	3mo	$2,700,000	$659	70
9 Peacock Path	0.86mi	7/5.5 (+1)	4,136 (+2%)	3mo	$2,100,000	$508	55
9 Rosebud Ln	0.34mi	7/9.0 (+1)	4,705 (+16%)	2mo	$2,500,000	$531	39
12 Pheasant Run	0.88mi	6/4.0	4,500 (+11%)	22mo	$2,850,000	$633	23
2 Eagle Close	0.81mi	5/6.0 (-1)	4,798 (+18%)	33mo	$2,950,000	$615	13

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $554,583
• Equity at exit: $402,430

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $1,758,392
• Equity at exit: $233,360

Cash invested: $755,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 4 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.0 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $2,899,500 ($762/sqft)
• Median days on market: 58 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -12.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $40,731 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,154
• Tax from tax record: −$1,314 /mo · $15,773/yr
• Insurance: −$1,125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$8,553
• Net cashflow: $15,585

Break-even live

Break-even rent $21,004

Max offer price $2,699,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17,112	-5% $16,348	+0% $15,585	+5% $14,821	+10% $14,057
Rent	-10% $12,367	-5% $13,976	+0% $15,585	+5% $17,193	+10% $18,802
Rate	-1.0pp $16,944	-0.5pp $16,271	base $15,585	+0.5pp $14,885	+1.0pp $14,174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $674,750
• Closing costs: $80,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Rosebud Ln East Quogue, NY	6.0	7.5	4500	$55,000	$12.22	93d	1	0.38mi
3 Cherry Blossom Ln East Quogue, NY	5.0	4.5	3632	$40,000	$11.01	93d	1	0.44mi
15 Fox Hollow Dr East Quogue, NY	6.0	5.0	3375	$27,500	$8.15	57d	1	0.65mi
99 Spinney Rd East Quogue, NY	5.0	4.5	3512	$95,000	$27.05	73d	1	0.83mi
19 Post Fields Ln Quogue, NY	5.0	4.5	3800	$30,000	$7.89	36d	1	1.15mi
28 Old Meeting House Rd Quogue, NY	5.0	5.5	4500	$30,000	$6.67	73d	1	1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private in-ground saltwater vinyl poolAdditional structures include garage(s) and shed(s)

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayPrivate garage2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEGCesspool sewerNatural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residenceUpdated / remodeledThree or more levelsFinished full basement with walk-out accessAttic with pull-down stairs
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Basketball hoopBack yard and front yardLandscaped and private lotBack yard fencingInterior, level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktopGas ovenGas rangeRefrigeratorStainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Additional rooms include a home office and library/den
• Bathrooms: Five full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningBaseboard heatingNatural gas heating
• Interior features: First-floor full bathroomBreakfast barBuilt-in featuresChef's kitchenCrown moldingEntrance foyerFormal dining roomGranite countersHigh ceilingsKitchen islandPantryPrimary bathroomSoaking tub
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $2,699,000 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $2,699,000 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $2,699,000 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $2,699,000 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $2,699,000 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $2,699,000 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $2,699,000 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $2,699,000 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $2,699,000 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 105 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 104 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 103 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 102 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 101 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 100 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 99 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 98 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 97 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 96 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 94 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 93 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 92 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 91 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 90 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 89 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 88 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 87 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 86 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 85 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 84 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 83 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 81 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 79 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 78 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 75 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 74 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 73 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 72 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 70 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 69 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 66 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 65 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 64 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 61 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $15,773 · $1,314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $30,693 · $2,558/mo
• Expected delta: +$14,920/yr (+$1,243/mo · 94.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $488,771
• − Mortgage interest: −$151,186
• − Property taxes: −$15,773
• − Insurance: −$13,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$39,102
• − Management: −$39,102
• − Depreciation: −$78,516
• Taxable income: $151,597
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$36,383
• After-tax cash flow: $150,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in East Quogue is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a beautiful setting. It is move-in ready and offers significant potential for value enhancement through minor updates.

Components & finishes AI

Roof shingle · good Flooring hardwood

Deferred maintenance Est. $2,000–$8,000 screening

• Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear on the roof.
• Minor Windows (windows) — No visible signs of damage or wear on the windows.
• Minor Electrical (electrical) — No visible signs of damage or wear on the electrical components.
• Minor Plumbing (plumbing) — No visible signs of damage or wear on the plumbing.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint can make the home look newer and more appealing. ↑
• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — Improves curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary East Quogue School B- NY #745/2,108 Nat'l #7,252/41,679

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• County: Suffolk · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 5,871
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 5,871
• Household income: $106,875
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

---

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private in-ground saltwater vinyl poolAdditional structures include garage(s) and shed(s)

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayPrivate garage2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEGCesspool sewerNatural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residenceUpdated / remodeledThree or more levelsFinished full basement with walk-out accessAttic with pull-down stairs
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Basketball hoopBack yard and front yardLandscaped and private lotBack yard fencingInterior, level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktopGas ovenGas rangeRefrigeratorStainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Additional rooms include a home office and library/den
• Bathrooms: Five full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningBaseboard heatingNatural gas heating
• Interior features: First-floor full bathroomBreakfast barBuilt-in featuresChef's kitchenCrown moldingEntrance foyerFormal dining roomGranite countersHigh ceilingsKitchen islandPantryPrimary bathroomSoaking tub
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

Price history

+574.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $2,699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-10 Listed $2,750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $1,300,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-15 Sold (MLS) $1,350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-10 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-24 Listed $1,350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $400,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $15,773 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.