6419 SE 215th St · Hawthorne, FL 32640

$118,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1940 0.91 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

EXECELLENT OPPORTUNITY!!! CASH OR HARD MONEY LOAN. .. Bring your vision to life with this 1940 one-story home situated on an fully fenced lot! This property is currently a shell featuring 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, offering a blank canvas ready for a complete renovation. The home will require significant improvements including flooring, kitchen cabinetry, and more — the possibilities are truly endless. Tax records indicate the roof and central A/C were replaced in 2021, however, the seller does not have ANY knowledge of the age or condition of the roof, electrical, plumbing, sewer/septic system or HVAC. Buyer to verify all information.

Key facts

• Complete renovation
• Central a/c replaced
• Fully fenced lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• COMPLETE RENOVATION
• SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS
• ROOF REPLACED
• CENTRAL A/C REPLACED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Condition: Fixer; Total rooms: 3; Unfurnished; Estimated living area source: public records
• Financial info: Property zoned RSF2; No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: No HOA/association; Development: Alachua Heights

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details specified
• Security: No security features specified
• Utilities: No municipal water (listed as none); Sewer: other; Utilities: other
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property in fixer condition; One-story; Faces southwest; Entry level: One
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built area approximately 1,264 (public records)
• Exterior features: Lot nearly 1 acre (0.91 acres); Road access: dirt, gravel, unimproved

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater (listed under appliances)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating specified; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: No laundry facilities specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $470 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.3% in Hawthorne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#376 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Alachua Elementary School (math 48% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 326 students, 70% FRL); Hawthorne Middle/High School (math 26% / reading 29%, grade F, #470 of 667 statewide, top 71%, 458 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 48% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Alachua average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 300 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $816 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,460 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.08%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $10,885
• Equity at exit: $17,594

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $48,269
• Equity at exit: $10,202

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32640

• Home prices YoY: -5.3%
• Active inventory: 300
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,688 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,345/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $118,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $537	-5% $504	+0% $470	+5% $437	+10% $403
Rent	-10% $337	-5% $404	+0% $470	+5% $537	+10% $604
Rate	-1.0pp $530	-0.5pp $500	base $470	+0.5pp $440	+1.0pp $409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $118,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $118,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $118,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $118,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $118,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $118,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $118,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $118,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $118,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $118,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $118,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $118,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $118,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,000 Active 12 DOM
18. 2026-05-18
    listed $119,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,345 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,345 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$2,345
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,621
• − Management: −$1,621
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable income: $4,039
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$969
• After-tax cash flow: $4,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hawthorne

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #376
• US rank: #6630

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hawthorne, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,780

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 24% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.68%
• Current HPI: 278.0079
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $119,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+31.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,345 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.