2392 Douglas Rd #39 · Ferndale, WA 98248

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 992 sqft · Manufactured public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1981 701 sqft lot $166/sqft · at area comps Est $167k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable and well-located 2-bedroom 1-bath home just minutes from downtown Ferndale. Open-concept floor plan with good natural light, functional layout and ample storage. Large covered deck area and garden shed. Home has had multiple renovations. Located in Ferndale Lampligther Estates a clean and well-managed community. no age restrictions. Convenient to shopping, parks, and walking trails.

Key facts

• Garden shed
• Multiple renovations
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE COVERED DECK AREA
• GARDEN SHED
• MULTIPLE RENOVATIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $482 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.5% in Ferndale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#79 in WA, #1,471 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living D-.
• Ferndale School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #138 of 291 in WA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 230 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.51%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,956
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -1.17%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2392 Douglas Rd #57	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	940 (-5%)	6mo	$167,000	$178	81
2392 Douglas Rd #38	0.00mi	2/2.0	924 (-7%)	13mo	$152,000	$165	78
2392 Douglas Rd #5	0.00mi	2/1.0	996 (+0%)	22mo	$139,990	$141	77
2350 Douglas Rd #20	0.16mi	2/1.0	960 (-3%)	9mo	$134,000	$140	75
2350 Douglas Rd #23	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,026 (+3%)	18mo	$143,000	$139	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $7,238
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $59,860
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98248

• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 230
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,841 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $462/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,231

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $575	-5% $528	+0% $482	+5% $435	+10% $388
Rent	-10% $336	-5% $409	+0% $482	+5% $554	+10% $627
Rate	-1.0pp $565	-0.5pp $524	base $482	+0.5pp $439	+1.0pp $395

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2375 Main St Unit 2371 203 Ferndale, WA	2.0	2.0	986	$1,675	$1.70	44d	1	0.21mi
2342 Main St Apt 2 Ferndale, WA	2.0	1.0	888	$1,650	$1.86	44d	1	0.29mi
2256 Douglas Rd Apt 1 Ferndale, WA	2.0	1.0	802	$1,500	$1.87	44d	1	0.38mi
2250 Main St Unit 102 Ferndale, WA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,835	$1.83	22d	1	0.46mi
2325 Ferndale Ter Unit 2331-3 Ferndale, WA	2.0	1.0	810	$1,700	$2.10	14d	1	0.55mi
5752 Legoe Ave #202 Ferndale, WA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,950	$1.77	44d	1	0.63mi
5739 Fallbrook Ln Unit 101 Ferndale, WA	2.0	1.5	1088	$1,995	$1.83	14d	1	0.65mi
2175 Siddle Loop Unit 103 Ferndale, WA	2.0	2.0	1058	$2,015	$1.90	22d	1	0.70mi
2177 Siddle Loop Unit 103 Ferndale, WA	2.0	2.0	1058	$1,965	$1.86	22d	1	0.71mi
2160 Siddle Loop Unit 103 Ferndale, WA	2.0	2.0	1058	$2,015	$1.90	22d	1	0.76mi
5601 3rd Ave Unit 7 Ferndale, WA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,200	$2.00	14d	1	0.79mi
2127 Siddle St Unit 102 Ferndale, WA	2.0	2.0	1003	$1,890	$1.88	22d	1	0.84mi
5775 Golden Eagle Dr Ferndale, WA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	44d	1	0.91mi
5731 3rd Ave Unit 101 Ferndale, WA	2.0	1.5	1027	$1,700	$1.66	44d	1	0.98mi
2274 Thornton St Ferndale, WA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	14d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-03-27
    status Active
17. 2026-03-06
    status Pending
18. 2026-02-13
    listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $462 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,617 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,155/yr (+$96/mo · 249.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$462
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,767
• − Management: −$1,767
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $3,225
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$774
• After-tax cash flow: $5,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferndale School District
• NCES district ID: 5302850
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $59,413
• Composite: 46.06/100
• National rank: #5494
• State rank: #138 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ferndale

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #1471

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferndale, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• City population: 28,498
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 28,498
• Household income: $91,060
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 582.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Portuguese 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -427.43%
• Current HPI: 407.6077
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.79%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Listed $165,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $462 · +41.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.