196 Colorado 133 · Hotchkiss, CO 81419

$32,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily · 275 Days on market

Built 1980 980 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Walking distance to the grocery store & downtown. Updated mobile home with new heater, new air ducts and new insulation. Floors updated to laminate hardwood, some new windows installed. new refrigerator. Storage shed in backyard. Newly installed 40 amp 14/50 plug. Carport and covered patio. ( New 20 mil Tarp being installed soon) New exterior upgrades coming this year including painting and landscaping.

Key facts

• New storage shed
• New air ducts
• New refrigerator

Tags

• NEW GAS FORCED AIR HEATER
• NEW AIR DUCTS
• NEW INSULATION
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW REFRIGERATOR
• NEW STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 980 (units not specified)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $32k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($934 rent vs $32k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#202 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Delta County Joint District No. 50 (town): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #38 of 86 in CO (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hotchkiss Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #357 of 966 statewide, top 40%, 316 students, 54% FRL); North Fork High School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #141 of 381 statewide, top 39%, 296 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Delta County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $221 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $960 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Delta County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.23%
• DSCR: 4.08
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $261,660
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 N 4th St	0.05mi	2/1.0	900 (-8%)	4mo	$240,000	$267	81
409 E Bridge St	0.08mi	2/1.0	955 (-3%)	18mo	$200,000	$209	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $27,753
• Equity at exit: $4,771

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.44×
• Total profit: $66,620
• Equity at exit: $2,767

Cash invested: $8,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81419

• Home prices YoY: -17.5%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $934 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$168
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$40 /mo · $480/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $280

Max offer price $32,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $539	-5% $528	+0% $517	+5% $506	+10% $495
Rent	-10% $443	-5% $480	+0% $517	+5% $554	+10% $591
Rate	-1.0pp $533	-0.5pp $525	base $517	+0.5pp $509	+1.0pp $500

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,000
• Closing costs: $960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $32,000 Active 275 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $32,000 Active 274 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $32,000 Active 272 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $32,000 Active 271 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $32,000 Active 270 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $32,000 Active 269 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $32,000 Active 268 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $32,000 Active 266 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $32,000 Active 265 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $32,000 Active 262 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $32,000 Active 261 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $32,000 Active 260 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $32,000 Active 257 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $30,000 Active 256 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $30,000 Active 255 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $30,000 Active 254 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 253 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $30,000 Active 252 DOM
19. 2026-02-11
    price $30,000
20. 2025-09-22
    price $25,000
21. 2025-09-20
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,792
• − Property taxes: −$480
• − Insurance: −$160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$897
• − Management: −$897
• − Depreciation: −$931
• Taxable income: $6,054
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,453
• After-tax cash flow: $4,750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delta County Joint District No. 50
• NCES district ID: 0803330
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,741
• Composite: 30.33/100
• National rank: #6268
• State rank: #38 of 86 in CO

Livability — Hotchkiss

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #16370

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hotchkiss, CO
• Population (ZIP): 3,223

Population outlook (Delta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,529 people
• By 2030: 25,951 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 22,510 · -18.2%
• By 2050: 19,460 · -29.3%
• By 2075: 14,030 · -49.0%
• By 2100: 9,093 · -67.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Delta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.5) · D 31.0% · R 66.5% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: -32.3pp · 2024: -35.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.5 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+45.2 2012: R+39.7 2008: R+32.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.21%
• Current HPI: 227.4824
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-64.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $30,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $25,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-09-20 Listed $85,000 ForSaleByOwner.com