1413 N Gorrill St · Bakersfield, CA 93307

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,007 sqft · Manufactured public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1969 6,534 sqft lot $159/sqft · 31% below area Est $232k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A Mobile Home on a permanent foundation ready for a new owner or investor

Key facts

• Permanent foundation
• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 1969

Tags

• PERMANENT FOUNDATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bessie E. Owens Elementary (889 students, 92% FRL); Abraham Lincoln Jr. High (620 students, 92% FRL); Bakersfield High (math 17% / reading 90%, grade C-, #281 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 3,004 students, 82% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Kern High average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 314 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $160k implies a 540% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.34%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,913
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -31.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,499
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $32,641
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93307

• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 314
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,568 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,154/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $327	-5% $282	+0% $237	+5% $191	+10% $146
Rent	-10% $113	-5% $175	+0% $237	+5% $299	+10% $361
Rate	-1.0pp $317	-0.5pp $277	base $237	+0.5pp $195	+1.0pp $153

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1517 Ralston St Unit 1517-A Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	960	$1,295	$1.35	4d	1	0.11mi
345 Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Apt A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	4d	1	0.25mi
1230 Dolores St Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	927	$1,250	$1.35	4d	1	0.40mi
136 Clifton St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,775	$1.36	4d	1	0.47mi
743 Monticello Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	954	$1,600	$1.68	5d	1	0.49mi
720 Beverly Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	900	$1,650	$1.83	45d	1	0.68mi
6 S Owens St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$1,950	$1.79	45d	1	0.71mi
2010 Larcus Ave Unit 13 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,200	$1.50	4d	1	0.85mi
1004 Padre St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	12d	1	0.87mi
2010 Larcus Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,400	$1.75	23d	1	0.87mi
2010 Larcus Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,300	$1.62	5d	3	0.87mi
2010 Larcus Ave Unit 48 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,200	$1.20	12d	1	0.87mi
2010 Larcus Ave Unit 33 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,200	$1.50	45d	1	0.88mi
820 Moore St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,600	$1.48	20d	1	0.99mi
309 Lloyd St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	798	$1,595	$2.00	4d	1	1.02mi
931 Monterey St Apt B Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1320	$1,650	$1.25	4d	1	1.08mi
310 Ohio Dr Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	12d	1	1.09mi
918 Monterey St Unit 918 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,395	$1.74	45d	1	1.12mi
419 8th St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	916	$2,200	$2.40	4d	1	1.12mi
2006 Kentucky St Apt 48 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	835	$1,150	$1.38	45d	1	1.14mi
2006 Kentucky St Apt 8 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	835	$1,150	$1.38	4d	1	1.14mi
1417 Oregon St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	744	$1,475	$1.98	4d	1	1.19mi
1405 Pacific St Apt E Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	850	$995	$1.17	45d	1	1.26mi
1813 Oregon St Unit 1815-3 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	4d	1	1.27mi
1710 Oregon St Apt E Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	4d	1	1.28mi
2190 Monterey St Unit 9 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	12d	1	1.35mi
2300 Lake St Unit C Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1105	$1,650	$1.49	4d	1	1.36mi
1518 Palm Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	715	$1,100	$1.54	4d	1	1.44mi
2124 Pacific St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	823	$1,395	$1.70	4d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $160,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $160,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-04-02
    listed $170,000 Active 73-char remark

    Show marketing remark (73 chars)

    A Mobile Home on a permanent foundation ready for a new owner or investor

17. 2017-09-11
    price $75,000
18. 2017-08-07
    price $61,999
19. 2014-12-09
    soldstatus $25,000
20. 2014-12-02
    soldstatus $25,000
21. 2014-09-12
    price $39,000
22. 2014-09-12
    historical
23. 2014-04-21
    listed $25,000
24. 1997-02-04
    soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,216 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$62/yr (+$5/mo · 5.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 39 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,814
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,154
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,505
• − Management: −$1,505
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $233
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$56
• After-tax cash flow: $2,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bakersfield

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #21355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bakersfield, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 499,124
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 85,945
• Household income: $56,446
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3246.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 12% White 10% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 28% English-only · Spanish 69% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -263.59%
• Current HPI: 447.1746
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1445.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $170,000 GEMLS
• 2017-09-11 Price Changed $75,000 GEMLS
• 2017-08-07 Price Changed $61,999 GEMLS
• 2014-12-09 Sold (MLS) $25,000 GEMLS
• 2014-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2014-09-12 Delisted — GEMLS
• 2014-09-12 Price Changed $39,000 GEMLS
• 2014-04-21 Listed $25,000 GEMLS
• 1997-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,154 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.