2 John Roe Smith Ave · Medford, NY 11763

$450,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1978 0.33 ac lot $202/sqft · 42% below area Est $773k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Contemporary Ranch.Pool, Finished Basement. Solar Panels., Additional information: Business Located At:,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Rental Income:

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Outdoor enjoyment
• Single-level living

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• SOLAR PANELS
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR ENJOYMENT
• CORNER LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage with approximately 1.5 spaces
• Utilities: Cesspool sewage; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Aluminum siding; HardiPlank exterior
• Exterior features: Private pool; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Finished full basement; Partial attic; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-599 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $344k (23.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $349k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $344k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.5% in Medford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#502 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #73 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Medford Elementary School (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A, #289 of 2,108 statewide, top 15%, 451 students, 42% FRL); Saxton Middle School (math 70%, 495 students, 49% FRL); Patchogue-Medford High School (math 89% / reading 67%, grade A-, #577 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 2,443 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 187 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $259k; list at $450k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $344,142 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.71%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $773,131
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: -41.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37 Locust Ave S	0.43mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,500 (+12%)	1mo	$859,999	$344	50
2909 New London Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,960 (-12%)	2mo	$581,107	$296	49
27 Bloomington St	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,400 (+8%)	13mo	$760,000	$317	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-110,883
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-144,877
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11763

• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,487 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$806 /mo · $9,676/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$732
• Net cashflow: $-599

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,245

Max offer price $344,142

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-345	-5% $-472	+0% $-599	+5% $-727	+10% $-854
Rent	-10% $-875	-5% $-737	+0% $-599	+5% $-462	+10% $-324
Rate	-1.0pp $-373	-0.5pp $-485	base $-599	+0.5pp $-716	+1.0pp $-834

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3107 Gull Ave Medford, NY	3.0	1.0	1622	$3,900	$2.40	0d	1	0.14mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 672-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $450,000 Active 672-char remark
3. 2020-11-11
   status Pending
4. 2020-11-11
   historical
5. 2020-09-08
   price $629,000
6. 2020-05-30
   listed $619,000 Active
7. 2017-08-09
   soldstatus $259,000
8. 2017-07-17
   soldstatus $259,000 Closed

   Show marketing remark (160 chars)

   3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Contemporary Ranch.Pool, Finished Basement. Solar Panels., Additional information: Business Located At:,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Rental Income:

9. 2017-04-27
   status Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (160 chars)

   3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Contemporary Ranch.Pool, Finished Basement. Solar Panels., Additional information: Business Located At:,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Rental Income:

10. 2017-03-26
    listed $259,000 New

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Contemporary Ranch.Pool, Finished Basement. Solar Panels., Additional information: Business Located At:,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Rental Income:

11. 1994-11-01
    soldstatus $113,000
12. 1986-03-21
    soldstatus $86,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,676 · $806/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,676 · $806/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$9,676
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,347
• − Management: −$3,347
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$15,079
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,619
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3622470
• Math proficiency: 83% ▲ 27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $75,120
• Composite: 66.81/100
• National rank: #405
• State rank: #73 of 590 in NY

Livability — Medford

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #502
• US rank: #8793

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Medford, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 29,973
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,973
• Household income: $120,783
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 339.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -531.78%
• Current HPI: 379.1499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+420.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-08 Price Changed $629,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-30 Listed $619,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $259,000 Public Records
• 2017-07-17 Sold (MLS) $259,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-26 Listed $259,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records
• 1986-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $86,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,676 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.