3905 Rauch St · Progress, PA 17109

$140,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1957 5,663 sqft lot $200/sqft · 21% below area Est $177k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Single Story Ranch Home in Susquehanna Township School District. Very conveniently located to schools, shopping & MORE. * * * Currently tenant occupied with property management in place. Can be purchased with individually or with up to 3 other properties in portfolio. * * *

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Built 1957
• Listed 95 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $140,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$177,486) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $116 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (2.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.0% in Progress — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#385 in PA, #3,436 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Susquehanna Township SD (suburban): math 17% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #444 of 539 in PA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Thomas W Holtzman Jr El Sch (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,081 of 1,518 statewide, top 71%, 820 students, 67% FRL); Susquehanna Twp Ms (math 7% / reading 34%, grade F, #435 of 512 statewide, top 85%, 723 students, 63% FRL); Susquehanna Twp Hs (math 37% / reading 10%, grade F, #379 of 437 statewide, top 87%, 743 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 35% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 80 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $140k implies a 204% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,400 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.55%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,486
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -21.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3809 Colonial Rd	0.15mi	2/1.0	768 (+10%)	7mo	$210,000	$273	71
3411 Cloverfield Rd	0.50mi	2/1.0	725 (+4%)	10mo	$135,000	$186	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-11,957
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $13,475
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17109

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,360 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,994/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,214

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $195	-5% $156	+0% $116	+5% $76	+10% $37
Rent	-10% $9	-5% $62	+0% $116	+5% $170	+10% $224
Rate	-1.0pp $187	-0.5pp $152	base $116	+0.5pp $80	+1.0pp $43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4212 Williamsburg Dr Harrisburg, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	923	$1,479	$1.60	15d	14	0.57mi
4229 Elmerton Ave Unit A Harrisburg, PA	2.0	1.0	535	$1,350	$2.52	45d	1	0.60mi
3250 Wakefield Rd Harrisburg, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	650	$1,305	$2.01	15d	12	0.85mi
4245 Sussex Dr Lower Paxton Township, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	720	$1,395	$1.94	45d	1	0.98mi
500 Beacon Dr Harrisburg, PA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,410	$2.01	15d	5	1.00mi
1008 Eaglecrest Ct Harrisburg, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	779	$1,485	$1.91	15d	33	1.17mi
2711 Walnut St Unit 1 Penbrook, PA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,099	$1.57	25d	1	1.29mi
3106 Hoffer St Unit 3106 Rear Upper Penbrook, PA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,375	$2.29	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $140,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-03-19
    listed $140,000 Active 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Single Story Ranch Home in Susquehanna Township School District. Very conveniently located to schools, shopping & MORE. * * * Currently tenant occupied with property management in place. Can be purchased with individually or with up to 3 other properties in portfolio. * * *

17. 2026-03-15
    historical $140,000 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Single Story Ranch Home in Susquehanna Township School District. Very conveniently located to schools, shopping & MORE. * * * Currently tenant occupied with property management in place. Can be purchased with individually or with up to 3 other properties in portfolio. * * *

18. 1995-04-25
    soldstatus $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,994 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,103 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$109/yr (+$9/mo · 5.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,326
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,994
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,306
• − Management: −$1,306
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$896
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$215
• After-tax cash flow: $1,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Susquehanna Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4223010
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,794
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7424
• State rank: #444 of 539 in PA

Livability — Progress

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #3436

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Progress, PA
• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• City population: 27,422
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 27,466
• Household income: $71,833
• Rent vs Own: 48.0% rent · 52.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1266.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 11% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Polish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · India, Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Spanish 5% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.02%
• Current HPI: 253.77
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.37%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+204.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $140,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-15 Coming Soon $140,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1995-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,994 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.