229-45 Shady Ln · El Cajon, CA 92021

$13,900,000

None bd · 4602.0 ba · 48,150 sqft · MultiFamily · 59 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 59 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

We are pleased to present Villa Capri, a 59-unit apartment community located near the heart of Downtown El Cajon, one of San Diego County’s most active and transit- oriented Tier-2 employment hubs. Positioned just 16 miles east of Downtown San Diego, the property sits within an energetic historic district surrounded by an array of shopping and dining options, year-round entertainment, theatre, and community events. The property is comprised of twenty-four (24) one bedroom/one-bathroom, sixteen (16) two-bedroom/one-bathroom, twelve (12) two-bedroom/two-bathroom, and seven (7) three-bedroom/two-bathroom floorplans that average over 816 sq ft. Each unit is equipped with electric applianc

Key facts

• Electric appliances
• Community events
• Historic district

Tags

• HISTORIC DISTRICT
• SHOPPING AND DINING OPTIONS
• YEAR ROUND ENTERTAINMENT
• COMMUNITY EVENTS
• ELECTRIC APPLIANCES
• ABOVE RANGE HOOD VENTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Contact listing agent for directions and additional details
• HOA & community: No community features listed

Exterior

• Home design: Residential income property
• Construction: Building size recorded (square footage available in listing)
• Exterior features: Property listed as residential income (commercial-residential income use); Lot measured in acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 78 full bathrooms across the property
• Bathrooms: 78 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Unbranded virtual tour available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 24×1bd/1ba + 16×2bd/1ba + 12×2bd/2ba units multifamily listed at $13.90M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive. Per door: $4/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $12.19M (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $12.19M (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.4% in El Cajon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#230 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $121,884/mo this rent would consume 1976% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 4178% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $96k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $417k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($13.48M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $12,188,400 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-2,593,193
• Equity at exit: $2,072,535

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-3,612,304
• Equity at exit: $1,201,818

Cash invested: $3,892,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92021

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 608.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $121,884 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$72,893
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$17,375 /mo · $208,500/yr
• Insurance: −$5,792
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$25,596
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $121,595

Max offer price $13,900,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9,835	-5% $5,032	+0% $229	+5% $-4,574	+10% $-9,377
Rent	-10% $-9,400	-5% $-4,586	+0% $229	+5% $5,043	+10% $9,857
Rate	-1.0pp $7,229	-0.5pp $3,764	base $229	+0.5pp $-3,373	+1.0pp $-7,038

59-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 24× units	1	1	$45,672
▸ 16× units	2	1	$33,888
▸ 12× units	2	2	$25,416
▸ 7× units	3	2	$16,905
Total (59 units)			$121,884

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,475,000
• Closing costs: $417,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $13,900,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $13,900,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $13,900,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $13,900,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $13,900,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $13,900,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $13,900,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $13,900,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $13,900,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $13,900,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $13,900,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $13,900,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $13,900,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $13,900,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    listed $13,900,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $1,462,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$778,616
• − Property taxes: −$208,500
• − Insurance: −$69,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$117,009
• − Management: −$117,009
• − Depreciation: −$404,364
• Taxable loss: −$232,389
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$55,773
• After-tax cash flow: $58,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This multi-family property is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value-add improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and minor touch-ups throughout the property — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Both New flooring in common areas — Improves aesthetics and adds value to the property.
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and adds value to the property.
• Both Upgrading bathrooms with modern fixtures — Enhances functionality and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and minor touch-ups throughout the property — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both New flooring in common areas — Improves aesthetics and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Upgrading bathrooms with modern fixtures — Enhances functionality and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — El Cajon

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #7531

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Cajon, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 173,694
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,501
• Household income: $74,013
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4178.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.88%
• Current HPI: 335.0617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $13,900,000 SDMLS