3037 Willow Dr · Brandon, MS 39042

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,358 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1990 7,840 sqft lot $147/sqft · 5% above area Est $207k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 3037 Willow Drive in the heart of Brandon. Charming home that is completely move in ready. One of the larger homes in the neighborhood, this home features a huge primary bedroom, and bath upstairs, plus two bedrooms and a bath downstairs with huge storage space. A large open family room and dining room to entertain or relax in. Lovely kitchen with upgraded appliances and lots of light. Large fenced in backyard with plenty of space for kids, backyard parties, or pets. Home has been freshly painted and ready for new owners. Contact your realtor today to make an appointment!

Key facts

• Huge storage space
• Upgraded appliances
• Move in ready

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• HUGE STORAGE SPACE
• LARGE OPEN FAMILY ROOM
• UPGRADED APPLIANCES
• LARGE FENCED IN BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.2% in Brandon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rouse Elementary (797 students, 100% FRL); Brandon Middle School (math 67% / reading 49%, grade B, #11 of 179 statewide, top 6%, 1,193 students, 100% FRL); Brandon High School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #27 of 197 statewide, top 13%, 1,648 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.1% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $199k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.21%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,813
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -3.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3007 Willow Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,390 (+2%)	0mo	$205,000	$147	90
205 Edge Water Branch Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+3%)	2mo	$225,000	$161	81
116 Windchase Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+5%)	6mo	$230,000	$161	80
3072 Willow Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,217 (-10%)	1mo	$199,900	$164	75
401 Windchase Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+4%)	5mo	$230,000	$163	75
579 Lincolns Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+7%)	8mo	$235,000	$161	70
2030 Red Oak Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+9%)	9mo	$185,000	$125	69
368 Highway 468	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,251 (-8%)	8mo	$205,000	$164	69
3019 Willow Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,547 (+14%)	4mo	$219,000	$142	68
569 Lincolns Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+6%)	10mo	$222,580	$155	68
404 Briars Bnd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+14%)	6mo	$239,500	$154	50
106 Ole Duke Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+13%)	7mo	$250,000	$163	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,460
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $45,770
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39042

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,948 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $933/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,683

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $322	-5% $266	+0% $210	+5% $153	+10% $97
Rent	-10% $56	-5% $133	+0% $210	+5% $287	+10% $364
Rate	-1.0pp $310	-0.5pp $260	base $210	+0.5pp $158	+1.0pp $106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Fox Meadow Dr Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,250	$1.50	15d	1	0.66mi
1500 Chapelridge Way Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1081	$1,609	$1.49	25d	1	0.93mi
1500 Chapelridge Way Brandon, MS	2.0	2.0	921	$1,399	$1.52	23d	1	0.93mi
202 Overby St Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,786	$1.28	45d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $199,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $199,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $208,500 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $208,500 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $208,500 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $208,500 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $208,500 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $208,500 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $213,500 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $213,500 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $213,500 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $213,500 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $213,500 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $213,500 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $213,500 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $213,500 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $213,500 Active 75 DOM
18. 2026-04-23
    price $219,500 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Welcome to 3037 Willow Drive in the heart of Brandon. Charming home that is completely move in ready. One of the larger homes in the neighborhood, this home features a huge primary bedroom, and bath upstairs, plus two bedrooms and a bath downstairs with huge storage space. A large open family room and dining room to entertain or relax in. Lovely kitchen with upgraded appliances and lots of light. Large fenced in backyard with plenty of space for kids, backyard parties, or pets. Home has been freshly painted and ready for new owners. Contact your realtor today to make an appointment!

19. 2026-03-31
    price $225,000 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Welcome to 3037 Willow Drive in the heart of Brandon. Charming home that is completely move in ready. One of the larger homes in the neighborhood, this home features a huge primary bedroom, and bath upstairs, plus two bedrooms and a bath downstairs with huge storage space. A large open family room and dining room to entertain or relax in. Lovely kitchen with upgraded appliances and lots of light. Large fenced in backyard with plenty of space for kids, backyard parties, or pets. Home has been freshly painted and ready for new owners. Contact your realtor today to make an appointment!

20. 2026-03-15
    listed $229,500 Active 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Welcome to 3037 Willow Drive in the heart of Brandon. Charming home that is completely move in ready. One of the larger homes in the neighborhood, this home features a huge primary bedroom, and bath upstairs, plus two bedrooms and a bath downstairs with huge storage space. A large open family room and dining room to entertain or relax in. Lovely kitchen with upgraded appliances and lots of light. Large fenced in backyard with plenty of space for kids, backyard parties, or pets. Home has been freshly painted and ready for new owners. Contact your realtor today to make an appointment!

21. 2024-02-29
    soldstatus Closed 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home is located on a very good sized lot that is inside the award winning Brandon School District. The primary bedroom and bathroom are Huge and is the entire upstairs. There are 2 secondary bedrooms located downstairs. Call your favorite Realtor today for your private tour of this lovely home. Contact your mortgage professional to see what loan program you qualify for. I heard that the rates made a significant drop last week. Don't delay make those calls today.

22. 2024-02-29
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home is located on a very good sized lot that is inside the award winning Brandon School District. The primary bedroom and bathroom are Huge and is the entire upstairs. There are 2 secondary bedrooms located downstairs. Call your favorite Realtor today for your private tour of this lovely home. Contact your mortgage professional to see what loan program you qualify for. I heard that the rates made a significant drop last week. Don't delay make those calls today.

23. 2024-01-20
    status Pending 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home is located on a very good sized lot that is inside the award winning Brandon School District. The primary bedroom and bathroom are Huge and is the entire upstairs. There are 2 secondary bedrooms located downstairs. Call your favorite Realtor today for your private tour of this lovely home. Contact your mortgage professional to see what loan program you qualify for. I heard that the rates made a significant drop last week. Don't delay make those calls today.

24. 2023-12-04
    listed $215,000 Active 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home is located on a very good sized lot that is inside the award winning Brandon School District. The primary bedroom and bathroom are Huge and is the entire upstairs. There are 2 secondary bedrooms located downstairs. Call your favorite Realtor today for your private tour of this lovely home. Contact your mortgage professional to see what loan program you qualify for. I heard that the rates made a significant drop last week. Don't delay make those calls today.

25. 2007-03-29
    soldstatus
26. 2007-03-29
    soldstatus $62,000
27. 2007-02-02
    listed $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $933 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,572 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$639/yr (+$53/mo · 68.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone A · 49% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,379
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$933
• − Insurance: −$2,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,870
• − Management: −$1,870
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$175
• After-tax cash flow: $2,691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brandon, MS
• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 79,950
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 39,142
• Household income: $88,597
• Rent vs Own: 17.4% rent · 82.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 474.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.04%
• Current HPI: 172.5248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.13%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+82.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $219,500 MLSU
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $225,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-15 Listed $229,500 MLSU
• 2024-02-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-02-29 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2024-01-20 Pending — MLSU
• 2023-12-04 Listed $215,000 MLSU
• 2007-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 2007-03-29 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2007-02-02 Listed $120,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $933 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.