14571 7 Hwy · Bent Tree Harbor, MO 65355

$250,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Other public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1996 0.90 ac lot $159/sqft · 10% below area Est $277k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this 4 bedroom 2 1/2 Bath Home that borders Corp of Engineers property! Large 30x50 3 bay garage with lots of extra workspace and plumbed to where you could have a bath. Newer metal roof on home with large deck. Open floorpan with walk out patio off the kitchen area. All appliances stay. Full unfinished basement with basement garage and bathroom. Close to Truman State Park Marina, Long Shoal and Shawnee Bend boat ramp. Call for more questions.

Key facts

• Large deck
• 30x50 3 bay garage
• Open floorpan

Tags

• 30X50 3 BAY GARAGE
• NEWER METAL ROOF
• LARGE DECK
• OPEN FLOORPAN
• WALK OUT PATIO
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-339 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (40.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (40.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.7% in Bent Tree Harbor — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Warsaw R-IX (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #222 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $149,437 (40.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.81%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,544
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -9.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $42,423
• Equity at exit: $148,560

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $143,874
• Equity at exit: $262,280

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65355

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,494 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,248/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,923

Max offer price $190,177

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-197	-5% $-268	+0% $-339	+5% $-409	+10% $-480
Rent	-10% $-457	-5% $-398	+0% $-339	+5% $-280	+10% $-221
Rate	-1.0pp $-213	-0.5pp $-275	base $-339	+0.5pp $-403	+1.0pp $-469

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $250,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $270,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $270,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $270,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $270,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $270,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 54 DOM
18. 2026-04-06
    listed $275,000 Active 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Check out this 4 bedroom 2 1/2 Bath Home that borders Corp of Engineers property! Large 30x50 3 bay garage with lots of extra workspace and plumbed to where you could have a bath. Newer metal roof on home with large deck. Open floorpan with walk out patio off the kitchen area. All appliances stay. Full unfinished basement with basement garage and bathroom. Close to Truman State Park Marina, Long Shoal and Shawnee Bend boat ramp. Call for more questions.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,248 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,425 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,177/yr (+$98/mo · 94.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,248
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$8,711
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,091
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2931070
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,160
• Composite: 29.53/100
• National rank: #6495
• State rank: #222 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bent Tree Harbor

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,029

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,355 people
• By 2030: 16,513 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,898 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 13,662 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 11,308 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 8,755 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.1) · D 20.1% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -22.3pp · 2024: -59.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.1 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+54.1 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Current HPI: 232.6924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $275,000 WCAR

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,248 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.