1420 Panadero Ave #37 · La Veta, CO 81055

$164,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 637 sqft · Condo public records · 294 Days on market

Built 1983

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1 Bedroom/1 Bath Aspen Leaf condo is a beauty! It has a full size kitchen with custom made wood bar, textured walls and ceilings, wood burning fireplace with designer wood mantle, new windows and doors, new light fixtures and electrical upgrades. It is a lower level unit for easy access. Most of furnishings remain. Great mountain views off the decks with aspen and pine trees galore. The condo is within walking distance to Cuchara Mountain Mercantile and Ski Area, Mini-Golf, Frisbee Golf and many hiking trails including Baker trail. The Village of Cuchara is only 3 miles away and has great restaurants and shops. There are four fishing lakes within 10 miles which are Blue Lake, Bear Lake, North Lake and Monument Lake Resort. Potential future HOA assessment.

Key facts

• Breathtaking views
• Mountain retreat
• Built 1983

Tags

• MOUNTAIN RETREAT
• BREATHTAKING VIEWS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• UPGRADED FULL KITCHEN
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Aspen Condos)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; 100 Amp electrical service; 200+ Amp electrical service
• Home design: Residential condominium
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Wooded lot; Gravel road access; Has a view; Smoke detector(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Flooring: Tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wood stove or wood heat
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Double pane windows; Living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.0% in La Veta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#198 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities D.
• La Veta School District Re-2 (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #105 of 176 in CO (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 51 units permitted in Huerfano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Huerfano County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 294 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.

Recommended offer $145,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 294 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.51%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-35,199
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-41,223
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81055

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,481 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $862/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA est. from 9 same-building comps: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,652

Max offer price $141,040

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: electric
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 294 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 293 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 292 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 291 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 289 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $164,900 Active 288 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 285 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 284 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,900 Active 283 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 282 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $164,900 Active 279 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 278 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 277 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 276 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 275 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    price $164,900
17. 2026-03-26
    price $169,900
18. 2025-11-14
    price $174,900
19. 2025-10-02
    price $179,000
20. 2025-08-28
    listed $189,000 Active
21. 2024-07-16
    soldstatus $167,000
22. 2024-07-15
    soldstatus $167,000 Closed 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    This 1 Bedroom/1 Bath Aspen Leaf condo is a beauty! It has a full size kitchen with custom made wood bar, textured walls and ceilings, wood burning fireplace with designer wood mantle, new windows and doors, new light fixtures and electrical upgrades. It is a lower level unit for easy access. Most of furnishings remain. Great mountain views off the decks with aspen and pine trees galore. The condo is within walking distance to Cuchara Mountain Mercantile and Ski Area, Mini-Golf, Frisbee Golf and many hiking trails including Baker trail. The Village of Cuchara is only 3 miles away and has great restaurants and shops. There are four fishing lakes within 10 miles which are Blue Lake, Bear Lake, North Lake and Monument Lake Resort. Potential future HOA assessment.

23. 2017-11-02
    soldstatus $57,500 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    Very nice, turn key Aspen Leaf condo. All you need is your tooth brush, as this condo is ready to use today. Newly remodeled - you will find sheetrock walls, tile floors and a full size kitchen. The unit is very private and secluded. This is arguably the nicest unit on the market with a lower price tag to boot!

24. 2017-11-02
    soldstatus $57,600

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    Very nice, turn key Aspen Leaf condo. All you need is your tooth brush, as this condo is ready to use today. Newly remodeled - you will find sheetrock walls, tile floors and a full size kitchen. The unit is very private and secluded. This is arguably the nicest unit on the market with a lower price tag to boot!

25. 2017-10-17
    listed $59,000 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    Very nice, turn key Aspen Leaf condo. All you need is your tooth brush, as this condo is ready to use today. Newly remodeled - you will find sheetrock walls, tile floors and a full size kitchen. The unit is very private and secluded. This is arguably the nicest unit on the market with a lower price tag to boot!

26. 2016-11-07
    soldstatus $47,600
27. 1991-09-16
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $862 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $907 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$45/yr (+$4/mo · 5.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 14 d/yr ≥74°F today · 38 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$862
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,422
• − Management: −$1,422
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$4,389
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,053
• After-tax cash flow: $-567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Veta School District Re-2
• NCES district ID: 0805160
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,702
• Composite: 28.61/100
• National rank: #12044
• State rank: #105 of 176 in CO

Livability — La Veta

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #198
• US rank: #16099

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,582

Population outlook (Huerfano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,963 people
• By 2030: 5,550 · -6.9%
• By 2040: 4,598 · -22.9%
• By 2050: 3,849 · -35.5%
• By 2075: 2,906 · -51.3%
• By 2100: 2,156 · -63.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Huerfano

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.6) · D 44.3% · R 52.9% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: 11.2pp · 2024: -8.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.6 2020: R+2.9 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+7.8 2008: D+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.60%
• Current HPI: 186.2383
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+559.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $164,900 SPMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $169,900 SPMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $174,900 SPMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $179,000 SPMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $189,000 SPMLS
• 2024-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $167,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-15 Sold (MLS) $167,000 SPMLS
• 2017-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $57,600 Public Records
• 2017-11-02 Sold (MLS) $57,500 SPMLS
• 2017-10-17 Listed $59,000 SPMLS
• 2016-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $47,600 Public Records
• 1991-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $862 · +117.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.