109 Chance Ln · Glennville, GA 30427

$133,998

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 947 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2011 7,840 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

(Imported from ABBR ListingId 10980)

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 2011

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in the Picket Fences subdivision
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1 parking space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence (house); One story; Resale property
• Construction: Built in 2011; Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Back yard with wood fencing; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar; Pantry; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); One-level living; No common walls
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in a common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (4.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.9% in Glennville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#280 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Tattnall County (rural): math 29% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #103 of 174 in GA (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Tattnall Middle School (math 37% / reading 35%, grade F, #178 of 470 statewide, top 39%, 382 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 46 units permitted in Tattnall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $926 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tattnall County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $134k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,214 (4.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.51%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $72,919
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 E Howard St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+6%)	23mo	$14,000	$14	29
502 Lewis St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,068 (+13%)	18mo	$82,500	$77	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-10,773
• Equity at exit: $19,980

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,614
• Equity at exit: $11,586

Cash invested: $37,519 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30427

• Home prices YoY: -7.3%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,282 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$703
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $985/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,064

Max offer price $133,998

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,500
• Closing costs: $4,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $133,998 Under Contract 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $133,998 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $133,998 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $133,998 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $133,998 Back On Market 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $133,998 Back On Market 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   status $133,998 Under Contract 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   remarks 140-char remark
9. 2026-06-03
   listed $133,998 New 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $985 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,233 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$248/yr (+$21/mo · 25.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,506
• − Property taxes: −$985
• − Insurance: −$670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,231
• − Management: −$1,231
• − Depreciation: −$3,898
• Taxable loss: −$135
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$32
• After-tax cash flow: $2,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tattnall County
• NCES district ID: 1304770
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,214
• Composite: 23.65/100
• National rank: #7843
• State rank: #103 of 174 in GA

Livability — Glennville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #280
• US rank: #15005

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Glennville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 11,892

Population outlook (Tattnall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,831 people
• By 2030: 24,823 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 25,225 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 25,678 · +3.4%
• By 2075: 24,210 · -2.5%
• By 2100: 21,404 · -13.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Tattnall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.4) · D 23.1% · R 76.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.8pp toward R · 2008: -41.7pp · 2024: -53.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.4 2020: R+48.8 2016: R+49.6 2012: R+42.2 2008: R+41.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.04%
• Current HPI: 240.8632
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+71.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $133,998 GAMLS
• 2011-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 2011-04-01 Sold (MLS) $78,000 GAMLS
• 2011-02-24 Listed $78,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $985 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.