4740 W 40th · Clearlake, CA 95422

$99,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 1975 10,454 sqft lot $99/sqft · 54% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment potential. 2 separate mobile homes on 1 corner lot. Older mobiles and they need work. One is a 2 bedroom 1 bath and the other is 2 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Fenced yard.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1975
• Listed 30 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Two total units on the parcel; No common walls; Living area is an estimate
• HOA & community: Foothills community

Exterior

• Utilities: Public/district water; Sewer or septic: unknown
• Home design: One-story manufactured home; Front entry
• Construction: Year built (estimated); No accessory dwelling unit
• Exterior features: Manufactured house; No pool; Property has a view; Lot characterized as 0–1 unit per acre

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (main level)
• Interior features: Single-level home; Front entry; All bedrooms on the ground floor
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $339 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.0% in Clearlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#549 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Burns Valley (math 12% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,304 of 1,571 statewide, top 84%, 544 students, 89% FRL); Highlands Academy (reading 24%, 12 students, 92% FRL); Lower Lake High (math 4% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,034 of 1,170 statewide, top 88%, 1,057 students, 79% FRL).
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.66%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,614
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -54.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4397 Old Hwy 53	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	980 (-2%)	21mo	$270,000	$276	70
14922 Laguna Vis	0.26mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (+5%)	1mo	$219,000	$209	70
3925 Vista Robles Way	0.29mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (0%)	15mo	$213,000	$213	65
3956 Schultz Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,020 (+2%)	18mo	$210,000	$206	61
14920 Lelabelle Blvd	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	930 (-7%)	21mo	$195,000	$210	44
14920 Highlands Way	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (+12%)	21mo	$260,000	$232	42
14930 Clement Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (+10%)	12mo	$180,000	$164	42
15226 Taft Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,106 (+11%)	14mo	$210,000	$190	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $5,616
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $33,026
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95422

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,434 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,806/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,005

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $395	-5% $367	+0% $339	+5% $311	+10% $283
Rent	-10% $225	-5% $282	+0% $339	+5% $395	+10% $452
Rate	-1.0pp $389	-0.5pp $364	base $339	+0.5pp $313	+1.0pp $287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14531 Emory Ave Clearlake, CA	3.0	1.0	912	$1,450	$1.59	22d	1	0.45mi
5935 Old Highway 53 Spc 32 MH (Park Owned) Clearlake, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	22d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $99,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $99,000 Active 78-char remark
3. 2022-08-02
   soldstatus $115,000 Closed Sale 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Great investment potential. 2 separate mobile homes on 1 corner lot. Older mobiles and they need work. One is a 2 bedroom 1 bath and the other is 2 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Fenced yard.

4. 2022-08-02
   soldstatus $45,000

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Great investment potential. 2 separate mobile homes on 1 corner lot. Older mobiles and they need work. One is a 2 bedroom 1 bath and the other is 2 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Fenced yard.

5. 2022-07-29
   status Pending Sale 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Great investment potential. 2 separate mobile homes on 1 corner lot. Older mobiles and they need work. One is a 2 bedroom 1 bath and the other is 2 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Fenced yard.

6. 2022-03-26
   historical Active Under Contract 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Great investment potential. 2 separate mobile homes on 1 corner lot. Older mobiles and they need work. One is a 2 bedroom 1 bath and the other is 2 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Fenced yard.

7. 2022-02-16
   listed $110,000 Active 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Great investment potential. 2 separate mobile homes on 1 corner lot. Older mobiles and they need work. One is a 2 bedroom 1 bath and the other is 2 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Fenced yard.

8. 1999-01-25
   soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,806 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,806 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,209
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$2,806
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,377
• − Management: −$1,377
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $2,729
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$655
• After-tax cash flow: $3,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Konocti Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $30,026
• Composite: 11.81/100
• National rank: #9677
• State rank: #494 of 517 in CA

Livability — Clearlake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #18284

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clearlake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,101

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.47%
• Current HPI: 248.654
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+395.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $99,000 CRMLS
• 2022-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-02 Sold (MLS) $115,000 CRMLS
• 2022-07-29 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-03-26 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2022-02-16 Listed $110,000 CRMLS
• 1999-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,806 · +30.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.