3633 Luxor Way · Oakleaf Plantation, FL 32068

$259,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,482 sqft · Townhouse · 28 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 1,742 sqft lot Est $283k · 8% under $150/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Lennox offers 1,482 sq. ft. of modern living with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. Its open layout connects the kitchen, dining, and great room for effortless entertaining, while the upstairs primary suite and laundry add everyday convenience.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Cabana and pool
• Open layout

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
• OPEN LAYOUT
• UPSTAIRS PRIMARY SUITE
• CABANA AND POOL
• PLAYGROUND
• DOG PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $150; Community amenities include dog park, park, and playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 garage space)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Townhouse (attached property); Residential use
• Construction: Fiber cement construction
• Exterior features: Fenced yard (other type); Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Electric range; ENERGY STAR qualified dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all located on the second level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Pantry; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub); Smart home features; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.0% in Oakleaf Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#446 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tynes Elementary School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 1,021 students, 43% FRL); Oakleaf Junior High (math 50% / reading 54%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 1,118 students, 46% FRL); Ridgeview High School (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 1,828 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $224,183 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,062
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3654 Luxor Way	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,482 (0%)	1mo	$261,000	$176	98
3625 Luxor Way	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,406 (-5%)	1mo	$243,990	$174	90
3650 Luxor Way	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,406 (-5%)	1mo	$239,990	$171	86
3586 Prairie Wind Ct	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,497 (+1%)	15mo	$278,000	$186	65
3730 Spotted Fawn Ct	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,497 (+1%)	18mo	$285,990	$191	62
3702 Spotted Fawn Ct	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,502 (+1%)	18mo	$260,000	$173	60
3165 Chestnut Ridge Way	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,373 (-7%)	0mo	$258,000	$188	59
3620 Prairie Wind Ct	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,340 (-10%)	8mo	$255,990	$191	58
3748 Spotted Fawn Ct	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,340 (-10%)	12mo	$259,990	$194	53
3751 Spotted Fawn Ct	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,340 (-10%)	15mo	$258,990	$193	50
3719 Spotted Fawn Ct	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,340 (-10%)	16mo	$259,990	$194	48
3747 Spotted Fawn Ct	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,340 (-10%)	18mo	$271,990	$203	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-52,401
• Equity at exit: $38,765

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-56,252
• Equity at exit: $22,479

Cash invested: $72,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,242 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,900/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,464

Max offer price $234,568

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,998
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3608 York Ln Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1624	$2,299	$1.42	1d	121	0.07mi
903 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,695	$1.46	7d	1	0.53mi
728 Sunny Stroll Dr Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1860	$2,200	$1.18	23d	1	0.54mi
824 Integra Park Dr Middleburg, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1047	$2,258	$2.16	1d	10	0.67mi
670 Grover Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1704	$2,100	$1.23	23d	1	1.14mi
3938 Bloomfield Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1715	$2,275	$1.33	17d	1	1.20mi
3750 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1862	$1,850	$0.99	1d	2	1.32mi
1064 Moosehead Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1713	$2,099	$1.23	4d	1	1.38mi
3899 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,990	$1.32	3d	1	1.47mi
3886 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,850	$1.23	23d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,990 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $259,990 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,990 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,990 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,990 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,990 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,990 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,990 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,990 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $264,990 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,990 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,990 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,990 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,990 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    listed $264,990 Active
16. 2026-05-07
    status Active 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    The Lennox offers 1,482 sq. ft. of modern living with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. Its open layout connects the kitchen, dining, and great room for effortless entertaining, while the upstairs primary suite and laundry add everyday convenience.

17. 2026-05-07
    price $264,990 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    The Lennox offers 1,482 sq. ft. of modern living with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. Its open layout connects the kitchen, dining, and great room for effortless entertaining, while the upstairs primary suite and laundry add everyday convenience.

18. 2026-04-24
    historical 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    The Lennox offers 1,482 sq. ft. of modern living with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. Its open layout connects the kitchen, dining, and great room for effortless entertaining, while the upstairs primary suite and laundry add everyday convenience.

19. 2026-04-23
    listed $269,990 Active 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    The Lennox offers 1,482 sq. ft. of modern living with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. Its open layout connects the kitchen, dining, and great room for effortless entertaining, while the upstairs primary suite and laundry add everyday convenience.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,902
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,563
• − Property taxes: −$3,900
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,152
• − Management: −$2,152
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$7,563
• Taxable loss: −$6,529
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,567
• After-tax cash flow: $-541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This townhouse is in good condition with a fresh exterior and well-maintained interior. It's ready for move-in and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Oakleaf Plantation

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #8083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakleaf Plantation, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 40,366
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $264,990 realMLS
• 2026-05-07 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $264,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-24 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Listed $269,990 Zillow