2104 New Jersey St · Baytown, TX 77520

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,992 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1932 5,000 sqft lot $48/sqft · 44% below area Est $171k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY! Property sold as-is, offering a great opportunity to add value through renovation. Ideal for a rental hold or project for buyers looking to bring their vision to life. Per seller, property has not flooded and is not in a flood zone. Buyer to verify all information independently. Located in the heart of East Baytown, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-family home offers approximately 1,992 sq ft of living space on a 0.11-acre lot. Built in 1932, the home features a traditional layout with all bedrooms located upstairs and a functional floor plan suited for renovation or investment potential. Conveniently located near W Main St and TX-146, the home provides quick access to ma

Key facts

• Not in a flood zone
• Investor opportunity
• 5,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY
• ADD VALUE THROUGH RENOVATION
• NOT IN A FLOOD ZONE
• QUICK ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 1,992 livable area; Lot about 5,000 square feet (0.1148 acres); Seller disclosure available; Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1932; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Gas oven; Gas range; Oven
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Free-standing range; Gas oven; Gas range; Oven
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $429 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 657 students, 91% FRL); High Point School (12 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 61% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $95k implies a 352% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.33%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,707
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -32.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1908 Mississippi St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,898 (-5%)	2mo	$185,000	$97	67
1917 Utah St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,742 (-13%)	5mo	$191,000	$110	65
1406 N Dakota St	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,995 (+0%)	1mo	$165,000	$83	64
1904 Kansas St	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,880 (-6%)	10mo	$214,000	$114	57
2103 Britton St	0.54mi	3/2.0	2,123 (+7%)	14mo	$259,999	$122	52
1505 Missouri St	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,144 (+8%)	2mo	$330,000	$154	49
3214 Indiana St	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,695 (-15%)	19mo	$273,000	$161	46
1700 Mississippi St	0.52mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,970 (-1%)	22mo	$260,000	$132	45
1815 Oregon St	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,767 (-11%)	23mo	$214,999	$122	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $9,445
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $33,638
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77520

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,515 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,764/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $972

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $95,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $95,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-05-07
    status Pending 783-char remark
14. 2026-04-24
    listed $115,000 Active 783-char remark
15. 2025-08-16
    historical
16. 2025-07-17
    listed $130,000 Active
17. 2016-03-30
    soldstatus
18. 1998-10-23
    soldstatus $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,764 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,764 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 42% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$2,764
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,454
• − Management: −$1,454
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $3,945
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$947
• After-tax cash flow: $4,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,355
• Household income: $54,278
• Rent vs Own: 47.8% rent · 52.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1559.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 30% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.36%
• Current HPI: 262.066
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+352.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2016-03-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,764 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.