8176 W Pine Grove Beach Dr · Lake, MI 49304

$59,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 564 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1967 2,548 sqft lot $106/sqft · 52% below area Est $116k · 49% under ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

8176 W Pine Grove Beach Drive, Baldwin, MI 49304. Escape to the lake this summer in this move-in-ready 2-bedroom, 1-bath seasonal retreat, perfectly positioned in the heart of the Pine Grove Beach area. This updated home features a vibrant, modern interior with butcher block kitchen counters and a refreshed bathroom, all set on a level, shaded lot with mature trees and a screened-in porch for relaxing lakeside evenings. Water enthusiasts will love the proximity to Big Star Lake, a 912-acre all-sports paradise, and can enjoy direct water access via the nearby road-end for swimming and kayaking, or take advantage of the public boat launch just one mile to the west. Complete with an 11x13 storage shed, a dedicated fire pit for evening bonfires, and a short stroll to the sandy shores of Bayak Beach (available for a nominal fee), this charming getaway offers an affordable and low-maintenance way to enjoy the very best of Baldwin's lakeside lifestyle. At Bayak Beach, the 2026 dues are $50. There is a boat slip lottery for all members, to be eligible you need to have paid one year of dues. So if they bought the property today, they would not be able to enter the boat dock lottery, but they would pay their $50 dues. Next year, when they pay the $50 dues again for 2027, they will also be eligible to enter the lottery.

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Refreshed bathroom
• Public boat launch

Tags

• BUTCHER BLOCK KITCHEN COUNTERS
• REFRESHED BATHROOM
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• DIRECT WATER ACCESS
• PUBLIC BOAT LAUNCH
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Electric water heater; Electric service
• Home design: Ranch style; Single-story (ranch)
• Construction: Built in 1967; Aluminum siding; Metal roof; Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Shed(s) on the property; Located on Big Star Lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wall air conditioning units
• Interior features: LP tank owned; Eat-in kitchen; 5 total rooms; Storm windows, window screens and window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($807 rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 2.0% in Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baldwin Community Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #618 of 760 in MI (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $58,103 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.91%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $116,327
• List price: $59,900
• Delta: -48.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $7,117
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $27,824
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49304

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $807 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $407/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $472

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $298	-5% $281	+0% $264	+5% $247	+10% $230
Rent	-10% $201	-5% $232	+0% $264	+5% $296	+10% $328
Rate	-1.0pp $295	-0.5pp $280	base $264	+0.5pp $249	+1.0pp $233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $59,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $65,000 Active 1330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (959 chars)

    8176 W Pine Grove Beach Drive, Baldwin, MI 49304. Escape to the lake this summer in this move-in-ready 2-bedroom, 1-bath seasonal retreat, perfectly positioned in the heart of the Pine Grove Beach area. This updated home features a vibrant, modern interior with butcher block kitchen counters and a refreshed bathroom, all set on a level, shaded lot with mature trees and a screened-in porch for relaxing lakeside evenings. Water enthusiasts will love the proximity to Big Star Lake, a 912-acre all-sports paradise, and can enjoy direct water access via the nearby road-end for swimming and kayaking, or take advantage of the public boat launch just one mile to the west. Complete with an 11x13 storage shed, a dedicated fire pit for evening bonfires, and a short stroll to the sandy shores of Bayak Beach (available for a nominal fee), this charming getaway offers an affordable and low-maintenance way to enjoy the very best of Baldwin's lakeside lifestyle.

18. 2026-05-12
    listed $65,000 Active 959-char remark

    Show marketing remark (959 chars)

    8176 W Pine Grove Beach Drive, Baldwin, MI 49304. Escape to the lake this summer in this move-in-ready 2-bedroom, 1-bath seasonal retreat, perfectly positioned in the heart of the Pine Grove Beach area. This updated home features a vibrant, modern interior with butcher block kitchen counters and a refreshed bathroom, all set on a level, shaded lot with mature trees and a screened-in porch for relaxing lakeside evenings. Water enthusiasts will love the proximity to Big Star Lake, a 912-acre all-sports paradise, and can enjoy direct water access via the nearby road-end for swimming and kayaking, or take advantage of the public boat launch just one mile to the west. Complete with an 11x13 storage shed, a dedicated fire pit for evening bonfires, and a short stroll to the sandy shores of Bayak Beach (available for a nominal fee), this charming getaway offers an affordable and low-maintenance way to enjoy the very best of Baldwin's lakeside lifestyle.

19. 2026-05-12
    listed $65,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (959 chars)

    8176 W Pine Grove Beach Drive, Baldwin, MI 49304. Escape to the lake this summer in this move-in-ready 2-bedroom, 1-bath seasonal retreat, perfectly positioned in the heart of the Pine Grove Beach area. This updated home features a vibrant, modern interior with butcher block kitchen counters and a refreshed bathroom, all set on a level, shaded lot with mature trees and a screened-in porch for relaxing lakeside evenings. Water enthusiasts will love the proximity to Big Star Lake, a 912-acre all-sports paradise, and can enjoy direct water access via the nearby road-end for swimming and kayaking, or take advantage of the public boat launch just one mile to the west. Complete with an 11x13 storage shed, a dedicated fire pit for evening bonfires, and a short stroll to the sandy shores of Bayak Beach (available for a nominal fee), this charming getaway offers an affordable and low-maintenance way to enjoy the very best of Baldwin's lakeside lifestyle.

20. 2025-11-12
    historical
21. 2025-11-11
    historical
22. 2025-10-01
    price $79,900
23. 2025-10-01
    price $79,900
24. 2025-10-01
    price $79,900
25. 2025-07-18
    listed $89,900 Active
26. 2025-07-18
    listed $89,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $407 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $665 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$258/yr (+$21/mo · 63.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$407
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$774
• − Management: −$774
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $2,328
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$559
• After-tax cash flow: $2,613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,638
• Composite: 22.56/100
• National rank: #13447
• State rank: #618 of 760 in MI

Livability — Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,680

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,933 people
• By 2030: 10,503 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 9,470 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -22.0%
• By 2075: 7,160 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 5,634 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.2% · R 65.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.5pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+22.9 2012: D+5.0 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.01%
• Current HPI: 116.6025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-27.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $65,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $65,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $65,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-12 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-11 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $79,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-07-18 Listed $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-18 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $407 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.