139 Forest Ln #12 · Safety Harbor, FL 34695

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · Manufactured public records · 242 Days on market

Built 1981 3,903 sqft lot Est $206k · 39% under $250/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1356 square foot mobile home in fabulous Briar Creek. 2 bedroom 2 bath with an island kitchen with 2 pantries. Laminate floors in the kitchen, dining, bedrooms, master bath & office. Bedrooms have walk-in closets. It has a roofover. Central heat & air in 2013. Ductwork under the house was redone in 2015. Washer & dryer in 2012. This property is in the section that allows a cat or a dog up to 25 pounds. The property has a deeded lot 52X75 included in the price and it is not in a flood zone. Maintenance fee is $165/Month and includes water, sewer, trash, lawn, clubhouse, heated pool & spa, gym, shuffleboard, Bocce Ball, and a lot where you can park your RV or your boat. Briar Creek is next door just south of Mease Hospital. Many doctor's offices , insurance, etc are located just in front of the mobile home community. Room measurements approximate.

Key facts

• Roofover was done
• Deeded lot
• Island kitchen

Tags

• LARGE ENCLOSED SIDE PORCH
• WINDOWS WERE REPLACED
• ROOFOVER WAS DONE
• SPACIOUS OPEN FLOORPLAN
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• DEEDED LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association contacts listed
• Financial info: Total annual association fees reported: $3,000; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee: $250; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, shuffleboard court, recreation facilities; Association fee includes pool, grounds maintenance, private road, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water; Buyer/association approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Community features: association-owned recreation, clubhouse, fitness center, pool, street lights, golf carts OK

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Sewer connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; Faces south; Entry level: One
• Construction: Metal siding; Membrane and metal roof; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed side porch; Private mailbox; Paved road; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-In Oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Range Hood; Refrigerator; Electric Water Heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Den/Library/Office
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $125,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$206,112) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $446 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 2.7% in Safety Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#8 in FL, #296 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $125k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.57%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,112
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
143 Forest Ln #14	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-4%)	2mo	$150,000	$116	85
148 Beechwood Dr #57	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-1%)	2mo	$160,000	$119	83
84 Jacaranda Dr #15	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,180 (-13%)	1mo	$185,000	$157	66
133 Clubview Dr #137	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (+7%)	14mo	$180,000	$124	63
131 Pinewood Ter #8	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-15%)	12mo	$190,000	$165	62
59 Cottagewood Dr #142	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-8%)	18mo	$190,000	$152	60
48 Sugar Bear Dr #17	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-4%)	14mo	$165,000	$127	59
64 Pelican Dr S	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,484 (+9%)	16mo	$245,000	$165	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $17,711
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $94,841
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34695

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,051 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,802/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $446

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,486

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $517	-5% $481	+0% $446	+5% $410	+10% $375
Rent	-10% $284	-5% $365	+0% $446	+5% $527	+10% $608
Rate	-1.0pp $509	-0.5pp $478	base $446	+0.5pp $413	+1.0pp $381

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2955 Bay View Dr Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	1047	$2,150	$2.05	25d	1	0.58mi
2012 Dover Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1143	$2,200	$1.92	25d	1	0.62mi
2941 Shore Dr Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	1055	$1,825	$1.73	5d	1	0.64mi
1924 Dover Ct Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$2,315	$1.82	9d	1	0.65mi
1810 Driftwood Cir S Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1456	$2,700	$1.85	5d	1	0.77mi
116 Dolphin Dr S Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$2,550	$2.34	14d	1	0.78mi
3640 Meriden Ave Unit 3 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	1.0	980	$1,575	$1.61	14d	1	0.81mi
3664 Meriden Ave Unit A Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	970	$1,795	$1.85	25d	1	0.86mi
225 Tarpon Ln Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,400	$2.14	5d	1	0.87mi
3149 Huron Ave Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,595	$1.39	19d	1	0.89mi
3141 Huron Ave Unit B Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1089	$1,875	$1.72	25d	1	0.90mi
1 Pelican Dr N Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$2,000	$2.08	12d	1	0.94mi
3700 Shore Blvd Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1526	$2,750	$1.80	25d	1	1.01mi
211 Countryside Key Blvd Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,899	$1.48	25d	1	1.05mi
100 Old Village Way Oldsmar, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$1,475	$1.38	3d	9	1.19mi
46 Emerald Bay Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.5	1235	$2,000	$1.62	14d	1	1.22mi
47 Emerald Bay Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	25d	1	1.22mi
2652 N McMullen Booth Rd Clearwater, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,698	$1.64	3d	15	1.31mi
3455 Countryside Blvd #4 Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.0	995	$2,050	$2.06	5d	1	1.37mi
3062 Eastland Blvd #202 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,300	$1.84	25d	1	1.37mi
3062 Eastland Blvd Unit D11 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.0	920	$1,695	$1.84	25d	1	1.39mi
3001 Landmark Blvd #101 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1353	$1,950	$1.44	25d	1	1.39mi
3038 Eastland Blvd Unit F101 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,775	$1.72	5d	1	1.42mi
108 Nina Way #3 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,695	$1.55	25d	1	1.45mi
3460 Countryside Blvd #60 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.5	1349	$2,500	$1.85	9d	1	1.46mi
3042 Eastland Blvd Unit H110 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,700	$1.65	25d	1	1.47mi
161 Lakeside Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$2,000	$1.83	19d	1	1.48mi
133 Sabal Ct Unit B Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	16d	1	1.49mi
133 Sabal Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	957	$1,495	$1.56	25d	2	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpoolgym

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-05-31
   remarks 608-char remark
2. 2026-05-31
   status $125,000 Pending 242 DOM
3. 2026-05-12
   price $125,000
4. 2026-04-23
   price $145,000
5. 2026-03-10
   price $152,000
6. 2026-02-03
   price $160,000
7. 2025-09-29
   listed $169,000 Active
8. 2024-06-23
   historical
9. 2024-06-17
   price $155,000
10. 2024-04-15
    price $159,999
11. 2024-03-24
    price $164,999
12. 2024-02-11
    price $172,999
13. 2023-12-06
    price $176,000
14. 2023-10-23
    listed $185,000 Active
15. 2016-12-14
    soldstatus $78,000
16. 2016-12-13
    soldstatus $78,000 Sold 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    1356 square foot mobile home in fabulous Briar Creek. 2 bedroom 2 bath with an island kitchen with 2 pantries. Laminate floors in the kitchen, dining, bedrooms, master bath & office. Bedrooms have walk-in closets. It has a roofover. Central heat & air in 2013. Ductwork under the house was redone in 2015. Washer & dryer in 2012. This property is in the section that allows a cat or a dog up to 25 pounds. The property has a deeded lot 52X75 included in the price and it is not in a flood zone. Maintenance fee is $165/Month and includes water, sewer, trash, lawn, clubhouse, heated pool & spa, gym, shuffleboard, Bocce Ball, and a lot where you can park your RV or your boat. Briar Creek is next door just south of Mease Hospital. Many doctor's offices , insurance, etc are located just in front of the mobile home community. Room measurements approximate.

17. 2016-11-16
    status Pending 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    1356 square foot mobile home in fabulous Briar Creek. 2 bedroom 2 bath with an island kitchen with 2 pantries. Laminate floors in the kitchen, dining, bedrooms, master bath & office. Bedrooms have walk-in closets. It has a roofover. Central heat & air in 2013. Ductwork under the house was redone in 2015. Washer & dryer in 2012. This property is in the section that allows a cat or a dog up to 25 pounds. The property has a deeded lot 52X75 included in the price and it is not in a flood zone. Maintenance fee is $165/Month and includes water, sewer, trash, lawn, clubhouse, heated pool & spa, gym, shuffleboard, Bocce Ball, and a lot where you can park your RV or your boat. Briar Creek is next door just south of Mease Hospital. Many doctor's offices , insurance, etc are located just in front of the mobile home community. Room measurements approximate.

18. 2016-10-21
    listed $79,900 Active 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    1356 square foot mobile home in fabulous Briar Creek. 2 bedroom 2 bath with an island kitchen with 2 pantries. Laminate floors in the kitchen, dining, bedrooms, master bath & office. Bedrooms have walk-in closets. It has a roofover. Central heat & air in 2013. Ductwork under the house was redone in 2015. Washer & dryer in 2012. This property is in the section that allows a cat or a dog up to 25 pounds. The property has a deeded lot 52X75 included in the price and it is not in a flood zone. Maintenance fee is $165/Month and includes water, sewer, trash, lawn, clubhouse, heated pool & spa, gym, shuffleboard, Bocce Ball, and a lot where you can park your RV or your boat. Briar Creek is next door just south of Mease Hospital. Many doctor's offices , insurance, etc are located just in front of the mobile home community. Room measurements approximate.

19. 2001-07-18
    soldstatus $50,000
20. 2001-05-18
    soldstatus $50,000
21. 1995-12-06
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,802 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,802 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,609
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,802
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,969
• − Management: −$1,969
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,809
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$914
• After-tax cash flow: $4,436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Safety Harbor

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #296

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Safety Harbor, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 18,098
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,098
• Household income: $95,238
• Rent vs Own: 13.5% rent · 86.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 103.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.72%
• Current HPI: 335.0437
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.34%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+127.3% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $152,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Listed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-17 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-15 Price Changed $159,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-24 Price Changed $164,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-11 Price Changed $172,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-06 Price Changed $176,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-23 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 2016-12-13 Sold (MLS) $78,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-21 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2001-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1995-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,802 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.