20 Willoughby St · Newark, NJ 07112

$299,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,264 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1925

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful updated single family. The first floor features living room, formal dining room, bathroom with an updated bright kitchen and a sun porch. Plenty of backyard space for family entertainment and BBQs. Natural light through out and close to NYC transportation, major highway, schools and much more. You will not be disappointed. Come see today

Key facts

• Listed 131 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.0% in Newark — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#343 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools D+, housing D+, crime F.
• Newark Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #452 of 472 in NJ (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 37 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,364 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (2,551 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,697/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 2148% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.74%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $90,560
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34-38 Lehigh Ave Unit 2	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,984 (-12%)	19mo	$79,000	$40	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $174,323
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.00×
• Total profit: $502,330
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Newark: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+59

Rent control + strict just-cause.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07112

• Home prices YoY: 10.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,697 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,963/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,455

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
240 Leslie St Unit 2nd Floor Newark, NJ	4.0	1.0	1700	$2,800	$1.65	24d	1	0.19mi
50 Bock Ave Unit 3 Newark, NJ	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,885	$1.70	24d	1	0.38mi
241 Hawthorne Ave Newark, NJ	3.0	1.0	1996	$2,900	$1.45	22d	1	0.60mi
114 Watson Ave Unit 1 Newark, NJ	2.0	1.0	1788	$1,950	$1.09	17d	1	0.75mi
9 Shephard Ave Newark, NJ	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	22d	1	0.78mi
168 Johnson Ave Unit 1st Floor Newark, NJ	3.0	2.0	2800	$3,000	$1.07	17d	1	1.16mi
13 Garwood Pl Unit 2 Irvington, NJ	3.0	1.5	1900	$2,650	$1.39	24d	1	1.24mi
13 Garwood Pl Unit 1 Irvington, NJ	2.0	1.0	2856	$2,100	$0.74	24d	1	1.24mi
62 Hillside Ave Unit 1 Newark, NJ	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,800	$1.65	24d	1	1.27mi
227 21st St Irvington, NJ	3.0	2.0	2404	$2,800	$1.16	24d	1	1.43mi
285 Columbia Ave #2 Irvington, NJ	4.0	1.0	1600	$2,350	$1.47	15d	1	1.48mi
217 Orange Ave Irvington, NJ	2.0	1.0	2740	$2,200	$0.80	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 113 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $299,000 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful updated single family. The first floor features living room, formal dining room, bathroom with an updated bright kitchen and a sun porch. Plenty of backyard space for family entertainment and BBQs. Natural light through out and close to NYC transportation, major highway, schools and much more. You will not be disappointed. Come see today

16. 2026-05-18
    price $299,000

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful updated single family. The first floor features living room, formal dining room, bathroom with an updated bright kitchen and a sun porch. Plenty of backyard space for family entertainment and BBQs. Natural light through out and close to NYC transportation, major highway, schools and much more. You will not be disappointed. Come see today

17. 2026-04-15
    price $315,000 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful updated single family. The first floor features living room, formal dining room, bathroom with an updated bright kitchen and a sun porch. Plenty of backyard space for family entertainment and BBQs. Natural light through out and close to NYC transportation, major highway, schools and much more. You will not be disappointed. Come see today

18. 2026-04-15
    price $315,000

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful updated single family. The first floor features living room, formal dining room, bathroom with an updated bright kitchen and a sun porch. Plenty of backyard space for family entertainment and BBQs. Natural light through out and close to NYC transportation, major highway, schools and much more. You will not be disappointed. Come see today

19. 2026-01-30
    listed $350,000 Active 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful updated single family. The first floor features living room, formal dining room, bathroom with an updated bright kitchen and a sun porch. Plenty of backyard space for family entertainment and BBQs. Natural light through out and close to NYC transportation, major highway, schools and much more. You will not be disappointed. Come see today

20. 2026-01-30
    listed $350,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful updated single family. The first floor features living room, formal dining room, bathroom with an updated bright kitchen and a sun porch. Plenty of backyard space for family entertainment and BBQs. Natural light through out and close to NYC transportation, major highway, schools and much more. You will not be disappointed. Come see today

21. 2024-08-07
    soldstatus $360,000
22. 2006-07-06
    soldstatus $85,000
23. 1991-05-15
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,963 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,204 · $434/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,241/yr (+$187/mo · 75.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,369
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$2,963
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,590
• − Management: −$2,590
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$2,715
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$652
• After-tax cash flow: $2,949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newark Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3411340
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $33,891
• Composite: 14.24/100
• National rank: #9449
• State rank: #452 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Newark

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #343
• US rank: #11138

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D- Housing D+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newark, NJ
• County: Essex County · 825,405 people
• City population: 310,602
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,456
• Household income: $58,200
• Rent vs Own: 70.9% rent · 29.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2148.0

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 825,042 people
• By 2030: 834,010 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 846,221 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 850,047 · +3.0%
• By 2075: 837,009 · +1.5%
• By 2100: 784,345 · -4.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% White 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1% Hispanic 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, China, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.7% · R 26.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: 52.6pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+55.4 2016: D+56.4 2012: D+55.5 2008: D+52.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.64%
• Current HPI: 422.0928
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.75%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+1259.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $299,000 GSMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $299,000 NJMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $315,000 GSMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $315,000 NJMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $350,000 NJMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $350,000 GSMLS
• 2024-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1991-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,963 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.