13 Duval St · Citrus Heights, CA 95621

$45,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured · 146 Days on market

Built 1966 Fair condition $43/sqft · 47% below area Est $85k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Exceptional value for a double-wide home in desirable 55+ Stonegate Estates. Situated on a sunny private corner lot, this home offers spacious living, great natural light, covered parking, indoor laundry, and a relaxing covered deck. The longtime owners were non-smokers, had no pets, and completed several important improvements over the years, including furnace replacement in 2022, professional drain line repair in 2025, deck repairs in 2025, new dishwasher in 2025, and roof replacement approximately 2006. This home presents an opportunity for a buyer looking to personalize, renovate, and build equity over time. Recent inspections and disclosures are available for buyer review. The propert

Key facts

• Newer furnace
• Newer dishwasher
• Indoor laundry

Tags

• LARGE SUNNY CORNER LOT
• OVERSIZED LIVING ROOM WINDOWS
• LARGE SUNNY COVERED PORCH
• INDOOR LAUNDRY
• NEWER FURNACE
• NEWER DISHWASHER

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $45,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$85,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 38.8% vs local median 3.4% in Citrus Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#614 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Orangevale Open K-8 (572 students, 22% FRL); Sylvan Middle (647 students, 71% FRL); El Camino Fundamental High (math 34% / reading 62%, grade D, #378 of 1,170 statewide, top 32%, 1,246 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 116.21%
• DSCR: 6.17
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,000
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -47.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
142 Sage St	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,060 (+2%)	3mo	$90,000	$85	91
42 Saxton Cir	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	10mo	$126,000	$121	81
150 Sage St	0.02mi	2/2.0	960 (-8%)	15mo	$89,999	$94	74
29 Hanover St	0.11mi	2/2.0	954 (-8%)	10mo	$87,000	$91	73
114 Cambria	0.07mi	2/1.0	960 (-8%)	11mo	$85,000	$89	71
77 Cambria Cir	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,188 (+14%)	8mo	$70,000	$59	65
23 Hanover St	0.07mi	2/2.0	960 (-8%)	24mo	$112,000	$117	64
190 Saxton Cir #190	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,154 (+11%)	12mo	$137,500	$119	62
140 Sage St	0.09mi	2/2.0	910 (-12%)	19mo	$112,000	$123	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.42×
• Total profit: $68,329
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.00×
• Total profit: $151,170
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95621

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $1,220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,251	-5% $1,236	+0% $1,220	+5% $1,205	+10% $1,189
Rent	-10% $1,067	-5% $1,144	+0% $1,220	+5% $1,297	+10% $1,373
Rate	-1.0pp $1,243	-0.5pp $1,232	base $1,220	+0.5pp $1,209	+1.0pp $1,197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7445 Auburn Oaks Ct Unit K Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.0	929	$1,695	$1.82	45d	1	0.31mi
7445 Auburn Oaks Ct Unit K Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.0	929	$1,700	$1.83	23d	1	0.31mi
7434 Auburn Oaks Ct Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	790	$1,875	$2.37	25d	4	0.32mi
7434 Auburn Oaks Ct Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	890	$1,975	$2.22	5d	1	0.32mi
6841 Castleberry Cir Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1162	$2,300	$1.98	5d	1	0.49mi
1000 Cirby Oaks Way Roseville, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,906	$2.72	0d	2	0.58mi
7603 Linden Ave Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.5	990	$1,900	$1.92	19d	1	0.67mi
333 Cirby Way Roseville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	796	$2,115	$2.66	3d	4	0.73mi
425 Cirby Way Roseville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	812	$2,274	$2.80	3d	1	0.76mi
3 Somer Ridge Dr Roseville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$2,270	$2.50	0d	6	0.92mi
7437 Antelope Rd Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.5	1287	$2,550	$1.98	5d	1	0.92mi
209 Live Oak Cir Roseville, CA	1.0	1.0	1310	$1,495	$1.14	3d	1	1.00mi
7658 Poppy Way Unit 7658 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,695	$1.88	4d	1	1.09mi
7658 Poppy Way Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,785	$1.98	16d	1	1.09mi
7915 Zenith Dr Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	1015	$1,895	$1.87	23d	1	1.13mi
308 6th St Unit B Roseville, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,200	$2.75	23d	1	1.19mi
7827 Zenith Dr Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.0	1031	$1,995	$1.94	16d	1	1.23mi
7727 Mariposa Ave Unit 5 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	725	$1,795	$2.48	45d	1	1.26mi
348 B St Roseville, CA	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,995	$1.73	3d	1	1.30mi
210 D St Roseville, CA	3.0	2.5	1433	$2,795	$1.95	3d	1	1.36mi
315 B St Roseville, CA	2.0	1.0	575	$1,800	$3.13	3d	3	1.38mi
7761 Pompei Ct Unit 7763 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,705	$1.89	25d	1	1.40mi
6413 Tupelo Dr Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$2,000	$2.58	3d	10	1.41mi
8237 Sunrise Blvd Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,095	$2.00	9d	1	1.43mi
7541 Ramona Ln Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$2,295	$2.74	4d	9	1.46mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $45,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   status $45,000 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $45,000 Pending 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $45,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,995 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,995 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,995 Active 129 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,861
• − Management: −$1,861
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $14,807
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,554
• After-tax cash flow: $11,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This double-wide manufactured home in Stonegate Estates requires cosmetic updates to its interior and exterior, with a focus on painting and replacing the air conditioning unit to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen backsplash — wooden countertop
• Minor bathroom vanity — wooden countertop

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace air conditioning unit — improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen backsplash · wooden countertop	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom vanity · wooden countertop	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace air conditioning unit — improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $55,655
• Composite: 44.07/100
• National rank: #2878
• State rank: #138 of 517 in CA

Livability — Citrus Heights

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #19580

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Heights, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 89,370
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,442
• Household income: $80,901
• Rent vs Own: 31.9% rent · 68.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1854.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 3% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -408.14%
• Current HPI: 351.9333
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B