2124 Derby Dr · Seagoville, TX 75159

$289,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,809 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,600 sqft lot $160/sqft · 5% below area Est $306k · 5% under $56/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21259610 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Jul 2026 completion! ~ The Harper is designed for those who need extra space and versatility. This four bedroom, two bathroom home features an expansive living area, flowing seamlessly into a modern kitchen with a large island - perfect for entertaining. The primary suite is a peaceful retreat with an en-suite bath, while three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or a creative space.

Key facts

• 5,600 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include community pool, greenbelt, playground, sidewalks and other amenities; Energy-efficient features include efficient appliances, HVAC, insulation, lighting, mechanical fresh air, thermostat, water heater, windows, rain/freeze sensors; Water conservation features include low-flow fixtures and water-smart landscaping
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Stonehaven); Annual association fee of $675; Association covers insurance, structure maintenance, and management fees; HOA managed by Neighborhood Management, Inc.

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage (20' x 20') with garage door opener, garage faces front, side-by-side configuration
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Individual water meter; Curbs and sidewalks
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; New construction (incomplete, 2026); Located in the Stonehaven planned development; Smart home features available
• Construction: Brick, rock/stone and siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2026 (new construction - incomplete)
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Covered patio; Gutters; Exterior lighting; Private yard; Backyard wood fencing; Lot approximately 50 x 112 (less than 0.5 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Pantry; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); One living area; One dining area; Room count: 8; Living area approximately 1809
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-373/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 5.1% in Seagoville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#319 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Seagoville El (math 19% / reading 24%, grade F, #3,470 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 607 students, 92% FRL); Seagoville Middle (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,407 of 1,662 statewide, top 86%, 1,419 students, 88% FRL); Seagoville H S (math 15% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 1,779 students, 87% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dallas ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 282 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,837 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,948
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: -5.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2226 Mustang Way	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,833 (+1%)	1mo	$307,949	$168	86
2222 Horseshoe Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,768 (-2%)	0mo	$308,400	$174	85
2218 Horseshoe Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,986 (+10%)	0mo	$300,990	$152	74
2022 Colt Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,833 (+1%)	1mo	$302,949	$165	72
2014 Colt Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,833 (+1%)	1mo	$306,449	$167	70
1868 Gallop Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,628 (-10%)	1mo	$280,990	$173	70
2820 Jordan Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,758 (-3%)	0mo	$274,900	$156	66
15127 Benjamin Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,080 (+15%)	1mo	$305,000	$147	56
2012 Carriage Ct	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,059 (+14%)	1mo	$309,820	$150	54
2016 Colt Ct	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,059 (+14%)	0mo	$325,720	$158	51
2010 Colt Ct	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,059 (+14%)	1mo	$339,820	$165	50
1253 Ponchartrain Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	2,062 (+14%)	0mo	$314,999	$153	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-56,422
• Equity at exit: $43,238

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-80,468
• Equity at exit: $25,073

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75159

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 282
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,568 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,350/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$56
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,608

Max offer price $285,498

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $169	-5% $69	+0% $-31	+5% $-131	+10% $-231
Rent	-10% $-234	-5% $-132	+0% $-31	+5% $70	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $43	base $-31	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1928 Laurel Park Ln Seagoville, TX	3.0	2.0	1889	$2,450	$1.30	0d	1	0.15mi
15133 Ace Dr Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	2079	$2,500	$1.20	45d	1	0.29mi
15127 Athena Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,400	$1.49	0d	1	0.34mi
1131 Elijah Way Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1790	$2,300	$1.28	22d	1	0.36mi
2516 Tahoe Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	3.0	2087	$2,550	$1.22	14d	1	0.49mi
2516 Tahoe Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	3.0	2087	$2,550	$1.22	0d	1	0.49mi
2603 Hutchins Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,975	$1.03	45d	1	0.52mi
2708 Corbo Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	2090	$2,400	$1.15	22d	1	0.54mi
15008 Baikal Dr Dallas, TX	4.0	3.0	2524	$2,700	$1.07	45d	1	0.58mi
2820 Jordan Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1758	$1,950	$1.11	0d	1	0.59mi
2806 Balleywood Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,195	$1.19	4d	1	0.67mi
1249 Eagle Mountain Dr Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1826	$2,750	$1.51	0d	1	0.71mi
2905 Englenook Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2119	$2,149	$1.01	45d	1	0.73mi
1428 Victoria St Mesquite, TX	4.0	3.0	2203	$3,695	$1.68	45d	1	0.79mi
2903 Castlebend Dr Seagoville, TX	5.0	2.5	2566	$2,450	$0.95	19d	1	0.88mi
639 Arlington Park Ct Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,299	$1.15	24d	1	1.20mi
752 Saratoga Ln Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,349	$1.06	21d	1	1.22mi
752 Saratoga Ln Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,349	$1.06	19d	1	1.22mi
2033 Hialeah Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,680	$1.21	9d	1	1.23mi
2030 Delta Downs Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,185	$0.99	9d	1	1.25mi
1933 Belmont Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,189	$0.99	5d	1	1.29mi
1921 Belmont Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1772	$1,995	$1.13	9d	1	1.31mi
620 Fountain Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2588	$2,300	$0.89	22d	1	1.34mi
612 Aqueduct Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,095	$1.04	45d	1	1.43mi
1630 Emily Ln Seagoville, TX	3.0	2.0	1546	$1,849	$1.20	9d	1	1.45mi
1914 Madison Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2587	$2,399	$0.93	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $56 · $672/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-04
   listed $289,990 Active 392-char remark
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $289,990 Active 465-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$4,350
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,466
• − Management: −$2,466
• − HOA: −$672
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$5,263
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,263
• After-tax cash flow: $891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern design and ample space. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seagoville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #7103

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seagoville, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 23,456
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,456
• Household income: $72,897
• Rent vs Own: 19.0% rent · 81.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 422.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 32% Two or more races 20% Black 17%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.45%
• Current HPI: 321.2065
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $289,990 NTREIS