509 N Providence Rd · Columbia, MO 65203

$137,815

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,019 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1935 5,856 sqft lot $135/sqft · at area comps Est $169k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CURRENTLY RENTED UNTIL JULY 2026! This 3-bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers real wood floors on the main with updated flooring in the upstairs and is centrally located to everything Columbia. Kitchen offers custom oak countertops and shelves plus modern fixtures. Take advantage of the upper-level studio space (or non-conforming bedroom) and the roomy back porch with dual ways to get to the basement. Covered front porch with a fenced & private backyard nestled under mature trees.

Key facts

• Roomy back porch
• Covered front porch
• Real wood floors

Tags

• REAL WOOD FLOORS
• CUSTOM OAK COUNTERTOPS
• UPPER-LEVEL STUDIO SPACE
• ROOMY BACK PORCH
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SECLUDED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $582 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 2.9% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in MO, #862 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Columbia 93 (urban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #194 of 324 in MO (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 459 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $953 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $121,277 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.10%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,880
• List price: $137,815
• Delta: -18.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
102 E Sexton Rd	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,022 (+0%)	2mo	$184,000	$180	86
506 Noble Ct	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-1%)	1mo	$130,000	$129	84
303 N Fifth St	0.25mi	3/1.5	984 (-3%)	1mo	$198,500	$202	80
603 N 6th St	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,062 (+4%)	2mo	$174,900	$165	77
506 W Worley St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,005 (-1%)	0mo	$175,000	$174	69
422 Alexander Ave	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,086 (+7%)	1mo	$92,500	$85	60
407 Circus Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,148 (+13%)	8mo	$189,900	$165	60
15 Mcbaine Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	968 (-5%)	1mo	$240,000	$248	59
21 Aldeah Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	984 (-3%)	1mo	$250,000	$254	59
307 Ridgeway Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,074 (+5%)	6mo	$178,900	$167	52
1106 Jefferson St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,140 (+12%)	7mo	$169,900	$149	45
1007 Jefferson St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,168 (+15%)	6mo	$254,900	$218	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $20,549
• Equity at exit: $20,549

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $91,025
• Equity at exit: $11,916

Cash invested: $38,588 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65203

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 459
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,821 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$723
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $913/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $582

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,084

Max offer price $137,815

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,454
• Closing costs: $4,134
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
403 N 9th St Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,800	$1.29	13d	1	0.38mi
103 N Garth Ave Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1196	$2,950	$2.47	21d	1	0.45mi
1009 Otto Ct Columbia, MO	2.0	1.0	1210	$1,230	$1.02	21d	1	0.49mi
302 Alexander Ave Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,350	$1.04	21d	1	0.53mi
309 Alexander Ave Columbia, MO	2.0	1.0	728	$1,200	$1.65	13d	1	0.55mi
810 E Broadway Unit 4 Columbia, MO	4.0	2.0	1048	$1,400	$1.34	44d	1	0.55mi
301 W Forest Ave Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,395	$1.20	13d	1	0.60mi
113 Crestmere Ave Unit 201 Columbia, MO	2.0	1.0	1022	$1,750	$1.71	44d	1	0.62mi
113 Crestmere Ave Unit 101 Columbia, MO	2.0	1.0	1300	$3,000	$2.31	44d	1	0.62mi
1200 E Walnut St Columbia, MO	2.0	2.0	1470	$2,575	$1.75	13d	2	0.65mi
607 Ridgeway Ave Columbia, MO	2.0	1.0	728	$1,300	$1.79	44d	1	0.77mi
308 S 9th St Columbia, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	824	$2,148	$2.61	44d	1	0.80mi
109 E Stewart Rd Apt A Columbia, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	21d	1	0.80mi
109 E Stewart Rd Unit C Columbia, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	21d	1	0.80mi
109 E Stewart Rd Columbia, MO	2.0–3.0	1.0	750	$1,950	$2.60	44d	3	0.80mi
1409 Paris Rd Unit 101 Columbia, MO	4.0	2.0	1468	$3,200	$2.18	44d	1	0.82mi
812 Again St Columbia, MO	2.0	1.0	780	$1,300	$1.67	44d	1	0.88mi
1001 University Ave Columbia, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	932	$2,375	$2.55	21d	14	0.89mi
1502 Parkade Blvd Unit 2 Columbia, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	44d	1	0.89mi
503 N William St Columbia, MO	4.0	2.0	1340	$2,400	$1.79	13d	1	0.93mi
110 Dorsey St Unit 201 Columbia, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	44d	1	0.99mi
5 S Greenwood Ave Columbia, MO	2.0	1.0	1104	$1,600	$1.45	21d	1	1.02mi
1003 Hardin St Columbia, MO	2.0	1.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	44d	1	1.02mi
215 West Blvd N Columbia, MO	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,800	$1.92	44d	1	1.04mi
215 West Blvd N Columbia, MO	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,800	$1.92	13d	1	1.04mi
205 West Blvd N Columbia, MO	4.0	2.0	1456	$1,550	$1.06	44d	1	1.04mi
319 West Blvd N Columbia, MO	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,800	$1.92	44d	1	1.04mi
1009 Hardin St Columbia, MO	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	21d	1	1.04mi
801 N Ann St Unit 10 Columbia, MO	2.0	1.0	786	$2,000	$2.54	44d	1	1.05mi
801 N Ann St Unit 9 Columbia, MO	2.0	1.0	786	$1,150	$1.46	44d	1	1.05mi
1007 W Ash St Columbia, MO	4.0	2.0	1456	$1,550	$1.06	44d	1	1.06mi
1011 W Ash St Columbia, MO	4.0	2.0	1456	$1,550	$1.06	44d	1	1.07mi
1503 Anthony St Unit 1 Columbia, MO	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	13d	1	1.10mi
212 Wheaton Ct Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,800	$1.92	21d	1	1.10mi
210 Wheaton Ct Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,550	$1.06	44d	1	1.10mi
204 Wheaton Ct Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,800	$1.92	44d	1	1.11mi
202 Wheaton Ct Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,800	$1.92	44d	1	1.11mi
1002 W Broadway Columbia, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$1,425	$1.81	44d	1	1.12mi
105 Clinton Dr Columbia, MO	2.0	1.0	830	$1,300	$1.57	21d	1	1.12mi
215 Wheaton Ct Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,550	$1.06	44d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $137,815 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,815 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,815 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,815 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $137,815 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $137,815 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $137,815 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $137,815 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $137,815 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $137,815 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $137,815 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $137,815 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $137,815 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $137,815 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $137,815 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $137,815 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-02-19
    listed $137,815 Active 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    CURRENTLY RENTED UNTIL JULY 2026! This 3-bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers real wood floors on the main with updated flooring in the upstairs and is centrally located to everything Columbia. Kitchen offers custom oak countertops and shelves plus modern fixtures. Take advantage of the upper-level studio space (or non-conforming bedroom) and the roomy back porch with dual ways to get to the basement. Covered front porch with a fenced & private backyard nestled under mature trees.

18. 2026-02-19
    listed $137,815 Active 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    CURRENTLY RENTED UNTIL JULY 2026! This 3-bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers real wood floors on the main with updated flooring in the upstairs and is centrally located to everything Columbia. Kitchen offers custom oak countertops and shelves plus modern fixtures. Take advantage of the upper-level studio space (or non-conforming bedroom) and the roomy back porch with dual ways to get to the basement. Covered front porch with a fenced & private backyard nestled under mature trees.

19. 2020-12-14
    soldstatus
20. 2020-11-13
    listed $86,200
21. 2005-06-17
    soldstatus
22. 2005-02-08
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $913 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,337 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$424/yr (+$35/mo · 46.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,720
• − Property taxes: −$913
• − Insurance: −$689
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,748
• − Management: −$1,748
• − Depreciation: −$4,009
• Taxable income: $5,022
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,205
• After-tax cash flow: $5,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia 93
• NCES district ID: 2901000
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,547
• Composite: 31.21/100
• National rank: #6036
• State rank: #194 of 324 in MO

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #862

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, MO
• County: Boone County · 158,877 people
• City population: 158,877
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• Population (ZIP): 61,539
• Household income: $79,960
• Rent vs Own: 37.9% rent · 62.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1991.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,891 people
• By 2030: 217,799 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 246,789 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 276,116 · +36.1%
• By 2075: 348,426 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 400,856 · +97.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Chinese 2% Spanish 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.9% · R 44.1% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+12.5 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -274.18%
• Current HPI: 194.3615
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.09%
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+130.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Listed $137,815 CBORMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $137,815 CBORMLS
• 2020-12-14 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2020-11-13 Listed $86,200 CBORMLS
• 2005-06-17 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2005-02-08 Listed $59,900 CBORMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $913 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.