579 Jordan Dr · Lumberton, TX 77657

$209,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1985 0.46 ac lot $218/sqft · 11% above area Est $254k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this beautifully updated, 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom charming retreat situated on a generous . 46-acre lot in the heart of Lumberton. Every corner of this home has been thoughtfully renovated to blend modern convenience with timeless appeal. The open-concept living area welcomes you with abundant natural light, perfect for both everyday living and hosting guests. The kitchen is a true standout, featuring new countertops, updated cabinetry, and stainless steel appliances. Outside, the expansive nearly half-acre lot provides a private oasis with endless possibilities—whether you’re dreaming of a massive garden, a workshop, or the ultimate outdoor entertainment space. Located in the highly sought-after Lumberton area, you are just minutes away from top-rated school. AI generated staging photos for your imagination.

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• Private oasis
• New countertops

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE OASIS
• EXPANSIVE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lumberton ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #173 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,891 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.04%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,098
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: -17.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-24,460
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-9,279
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77657

• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,889 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,931/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,701

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $209,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,000 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    status $209,000 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    status $209,000 Pending 101 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $209,000 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    price $209,000 840-char remark

    Show marketing remark (840 chars)

    Step into this beautifully updated, 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom charming retreat situated on a generous . 46-acre lot in the heart of Lumberton. Every corner of this home has been thoughtfully renovated to blend modern convenience with timeless appeal. The open-concept living area welcomes you with abundant natural light, perfect for both everyday living and hosting guests. The kitchen is a true standout, featuring new countertops, updated cabinetry, and stainless steel appliances. Outside, the expansive nearly half-acre lot provides a private oasis with endless possibilities—whether you’re dreaming of a massive garden, a workshop, or the ultimate outdoor entertainment space. Located in the highly sought-after Lumberton area, you are just minutes away from top-rated school. AI generated staging photos for your imagination.

18. 2026-02-19
    listed $215,000 Active 840-char remark

    Show marketing remark (840 chars)

    Step into this beautifully updated, 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom charming retreat situated on a generous . 46-acre lot in the heart of Lumberton. Every corner of this home has been thoughtfully renovated to blend modern convenience with timeless appeal. The open-concept living area welcomes you with abundant natural light, perfect for both everyday living and hosting guests. The kitchen is a true standout, featuring new countertops, updated cabinetry, and stainless steel appliances. Outside, the expansive nearly half-acre lot provides a private oasis with endless possibilities—whether you’re dreaming of a massive garden, a workshop, or the ultimate outdoor entertainment space. Located in the highly sought-after Lumberton area, you are just minutes away from top-rated school. AI generated staging photos for your imagination.

19. 2025-07-11
    soldstatus
20. 2024-05-29
    historical 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    If you are looking for a nice 1 acre lot located in Lumberton then this is the property you have been looking for! Its in a great location, just off of LHS. Drive. Buyer may be responsible for survey if needed. Listing Agent: Alyssa Cormier [phone]

21. 2017-04-12
    listed $25,500 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    If you are looking for a nice 1 acre lot located in Lumberton then this is the property you have been looking for! Its in a great location, just off of LHS. Drive. Buyer may be responsible for survey if needed. Listing Agent: Alyssa Cormier [phone]

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,931 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,825 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,894/yr (+$158/mo · 98.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$1,931
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,813
• − Management: −$1,813
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$1,723
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$414
• After-tax cash flow: $2,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lumberton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813530
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $62,996
• Composite: 43.2/100
• National rank: #3063
• State rank: #173 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #4326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lumberton, TX
• County: Hardin County · 39,783 people
• City population: 22,258
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,258
• Household income: $95,718
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 147.0

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -160.56%
• Current HPI: 156.2265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+719.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $209,000 BBOR
• 2026-02-19 Listed $215,000 BBOR
• 2025-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-29 Delisted — BBOR
• 2017-04-12 Listed $25,500 BBOR

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,931 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.